Inventory·The most valuable hot spots of the week
Europe is affected by the epidemic this week Some countries have restarted lockdowns, which has affected OPEC+’s restrained increase in production. The Suez Canal, which was worrying last week, was also successfully opened this week… which has brought a series of impacts to the textile market.
Next, let us look down to understand the market dynamics of the week.
OPEC+ announces “restrained” production increase plan
On April 1, OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries held a ministerial meeting via video link. The meeting statement said that member countries have agreed on the level of increased production in May, June and July this year, and will continue to adhere to the mechanism of holding monthly ministerial meetings to assess market conditions and decide on the scale of production adjustments next month. The adjustment range shall not exceed 500,000 barrels per day.
The editor has something to say: The production increase plan is less than expected, and it is unlikely that international oil prices will rise significantly in the short term in the future.
France continues lockdown until May
On the evening of March 31, local time, the French President gave a televised speech on the new crown epidemic and announced that the current “city closure” measures in 19 French provinces were effective but not enough. From April 3, they will be extended to the entire territory of France. Lasts until May 2, four weeks in total.
According to data from Johns Hopkins University, as of April 1, Beijing time, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in France reached 4.705 million, with 95,798 deaths.
The editor has something to say: The efficiency of vaccination is not as good as expected, which will have a certain impact on textile demand in the short term.
The Suez Canal is reopened to navigation
Egyptian President Sisi announced on March 29, local time, that the work of smoothing the flow of water in the Suez Canal was successfully completed. According to France News Agency, Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority stated that after the “Ever Given” stuck in the Suez Canal resurfaced, the canal was restored to traffic within three and a half days. It is now fully back on normal course.
The editor has something to say: The Suez Canal was quickly reopened to navigation, and some textile export companies breathed a sigh of relief.
China and Iran signed a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement
News on March 27, local time Saturday, China and Iran officially signed a 25-year agreement, which includes political, strategic and economic cooperation.
Informed sources revealed that the details of this agreement are basically consistent with the contents of documents disclosed in 2020, that is, China will provide Iran with telecommunications and infrastructure services in the next 25 years. It will invest US$400 billion (approximately RMB 2,616.4 billion) in dozens of areas including facilities, and will also receive conventional oil supplies from Iran.
The editor has something to say: China’s crude oil supply security has been further guaranteed, and the internationalization of the RMB has taken a solid step.
Market Review
Polyester: In terms of PTA, the price of PTA fluctuated steadily this week. As international oil prices first fell and then rose this week, fluctuations in the cost side of PTA and ethylene glycol relaxed. At the same time, downstream raw material plants digested the previous increases, and PTA prices began to remain stable. The current PTA internal market transaction discussions are around 4330-4350 yuan/ton.
In terms of polyester filament, this week’s polyester long Silk prices have basically remained stable. As of Thursday, the quotations of mainstream manufacturers of FDY 75D/48F have stabilized at around 8,400-8,500 yuan/ton, while the quotations for FDY 50D/24F products have stabilized at around 9,400-9,500 yuan/ton.
In terms of profit, PX suffered a larger loss this week It narrowed slightly last week, and its loss space has now narrowed to US$131/ton. As for PTA, it is still losing money this week, and its current loss is around 144 yuan/ton. In terms of ethylene glycol, profits continued to remain profitable this week, with profits currently shrinking to US$44/ton. In terms of polyester filament, polyester prices have basically remained stable this week, but costs have increased slightly and profits have shrunk slightly; FDY profits have reached 651 yuan/ton; POY 150D profits have increased, with current profits of 879 yuan/ton; DTY 150D profit margins have narrowed slightly , the current profit is 691 yuan/ton.
In terms of operating rate, the average weekly operating rate of PTA this week is concentrated at 74.9%, which is the same as last week ; The real-time operating rate is 69.6%, and the real-time effective operating rate is 76.5%. In terms of polyester, the average load of polyester this week was concentrated at 93.2%, an increase of 0.5% from last week. In terms of weaving, the recent operating rate of weaving manufacturers has stabilized at around 78%.
In terms of production and sales, this week’s polyester…Sales performance is good. At the end of the month, weaving manufacturers begin to restock, so purchasing enthusiasm has picked up. At the beginning of the week, production and sales often exceeded 100.
In terms of inventory, statistics from China Silk Capital Network According to the data, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 19-27 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 7-15 days, FDY inventory is around 12-22 days, and DTY inventory is around 13-27 days .
Weaving: The transaction atmosphere in the textile market has been average in the recent period, and the prices of many raw materials have begun to fall. Fabric prices Prices have also begun to be reduced one after another, with some products falling significantly, reaching 0.5 yuan/meter or even 1 yuan/meter. Textile factories have basically returned to normal production, but the number of fabric shipments is still poor compared with the previous period, especially the order volume of some conventional fabric products has dropped significantly. Orders for some elastic fabrics are relatively good, but there are also situations where the price of spandex raw materials has risen sharply, resulting in fabric prices being too high and downstream orders being reduced or canceled. The current operating rate in Shengze area has stabilized at around 80%; at the same time, due to the slowdown in market shipments, the overall gray fabric inventory has slowly rebounded to around 39 days.
Printing and dyeing: The activity level of the printing and dyeing market this week It’s relatively good. The quantity of gray fabrics entering warehouses in dyeing factories has rebounded compared with the previous week. As orders continue to increase, many dyeing factories are making orders far exceeding their production capacity. There is even a dyeing factory with a production capacity of only 400,000 meters per day, but 10 million meters of orders are queued up. Most dyeing factories in the market are experiencing jamming and queuing. Due to too many production orders, some dyeing factories are running out of barrel trucks. Some customers are willing to pay for barrel trucks in order to ensure smooth production of orders. However, because many dyeing factories do not have all the workers in place, there are still vacancies, and some machinery and equipment cannot be fully started, making it difficult for production to operate at full capacity. The current operating rate of dye vats is stable at around 86%, which is far lower than the operating rate of more than 95% in the same period of previous years. The increase in orders in the short term, coupled with the shortage of workers in the dyeing factory, has extended the delivery time. The overall delivery time currently takes about 16 days. In terms of products, conventional imitation silk, four-way stretch, Oxford cloth, imitation memory, polyester taffeta and other products performed relatively well. Among them, stretch fabrics such as four-way stretch were slightly more prominent, while other products performed generally and had a mixed variety.
Outlook
Future overseas market demand will still be greatly affected by the epidemic, but weaving companies A large amount of raw material stocks stored in the early stage have been consumed, and the market will partially recover in the future.
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