On April 7, local time, the U.S. State Department held a press conference stating that the United States is preparing to lift sanctions against Iran that are “contrary to the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal” in order to resume compliance with the Iran nuclear agreement.
The U.S. State Department stated that the sanctions it plans to lift include relevant content that is inconsistent with the Iran nuclear agreement, but did not provide specific details.
Iran is a major oil resource country in the Middle East. Its oil reserves rank fourth in the world and its natural gas reserves rank second in the world. However, in the past two years, due to sanctions from Western countries, Iran’s economy has been hit and oil exports have been hindered.
Xinhua News Agency previously reported that on the 6th, a meeting of relevant parties to the Comprehensive Plan of Action on the Iranian Nuclear Issue was held in Austria to discuss the issue of the United States and Iran resuming compliance with the agreement. After the meeting, many parties stated that the meeting was “constructive.”
In terms of oil prices, the prices of the two major crude oil futures have rebounded since the sharp drop on April 5. The price of WTI crude oil futures rebounded from US$58.65 at the close of the 5th to US$59.35; It rose from US$62.15 at the close of the 5th to US$62.86.
Multinational investment bank Goldman Sachs recently stated that even if Iran’s exports rebound, it is unlikely to have an impact on oil market, the potential recovery of Iran’s oil exports will not constitute an “external” impact on the global oil market in the short term.
Goldman Sachs said a deal could take months, adding that other OPEC+ producers would adjust to potential increases in Iranian output.
If Iran’s exports normalize before the end of 2021, it will reduce Goldman Sachs’s estimated Brent crude oil price of $75 per barrel at the end of 2021 and 2022 by $5; if no agreement is reached, there will be a Upside risk above $10.
Since the 2020 epidemic triggered a plunge in oil prices, OPEC+ has been significantly cutting production. Recently, OPEC+ agreed to gradually relax production cuts from May. Goldman Sachs said it expects oil demand to rebound sharply this summer, and that OPEC+ crude oil production will need to increase by another 2 million barrels per day after July.
The news released by the U.S. State Department has added new uncertainties to the market.
The outside world generally believes that it is difficult to achieve substantial breakthroughs in negotiations within a short period of time. Even if the problems with the Iran nuclear agreement are alleviated to some extent, the battle between the United States and Iran will continue, but it is not easy to restart the Iran nuclear agreement this time. </p
