In 2020, severely affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the chemical fiber industry faced increased risks and challenges, and the industry’s economic benefits and operation quality dropped significantly year-on-year. The plunge in crude oil prices coupled with sluggish market demand has resulted in chemical fiber market prices generally operating at a low level; the overseas epidemic situation is severe, and the number of my country’s imported and exported chemical fiber products has significantly decreased; however, as the domestic epidemic situation improves, the entire industry chain has accelerated the resumption of work and production, and the textile industry Terminal demand has gradually picked up, and the economic operation of the chemical fiber industry has also shown a rebound trend. Production growth has steadily picked up, and the decline in major economic operation indicators has continued to narrow. However, we must also see that the pressure on production and operation of industry enterprises has not yet been completely relieved, development confidence is still insufficient, and the negative growth trend of efficiency and investment has not yet been reversed.
Basic operation situation of the chemical fiber industry in 2020
(1) Production Situation
The output of chemical fiber in 2020 was 60.2512 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.40% (Table 1). Among them, polyester, nylon, vinylon, and spandex achieved positive growth, with year-on-year increases of 3.89%, 3.87%, 11.06%, and 14.44% respectively; viscose fiber and acrylic fiber showed negative growth, with year-on-year decreases of 4.11% and 5.12% respectively.
Table 1 China’s chemical fiber production completion status in 2020
Note: Polyester staple fiber contains some recycled polyester Staple fiber; polyester filament includes some textured products.
Data sources: China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, National Bureau of Statistics
On a monthly basis, the year-on-year growth rate of chemical fiber output has rebounded. Situation (Figure 1), especially in the second half of the year, the production status of chemical fiber enterprises continued to improve. The year-on-year growth rate of chemical fiber output turned from negative to positive from January to September, and achieved positive year-on-year growth of 3.40% throughout the year.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Chemical Fiber Industry Association
Figure 1 Chemical fiber output in 2020 Year-on-year growth rate changes
(2) Import and export situation
The import volume of chemical fiber in 2020 is 75.9 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.30%. Except for the import volume of spandex, which increased by 5.16% year-on-year, the import volume of other major products decreased year-on-year (Table 2). The export volume of chemical fiber in 2020 was 4.6606 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.92%. Among them, the export volume of polyester filament, viscose staple fiber, spandex and acrylic fiber achieved positive year-on-year growth.
Table 2 Import and export status of main chemical fiber products in 2020
Source: Compiled from China Customs data
(3) Market situation
From the perspective of raw materials, in the first quarter of 2020, crude oil The price war combined with the decline in demand caused by the epidemic caused the international oil price to plummet, and it fell into an unprecedented negative number in April; it then began to fluctuate upward and recovered, basically remaining stable in the third quarter, and began to gradually rise in early November. OPEC+’s production reduction policy and Saudi Arabia’s additional production reduction, thanks to Multiple factors such as the government’s implementation of a large-scale stimulus plan, support for the U.S. economy and improvement in demand have contributed to the continued rise in international oil prices. But looking at the whole year, the average oil price in 2020 is much lower than that in 2019 (Figure 2).
Data source: China Fiber Network
Figure 2 WTI oil price trend chart from 2019 to 2020
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Affected by falling raw material prices and insufficient demand, the overall price focus of the chemical fiber market throughout the year was significantly lower than in 2019. In the first quarter, as crude oil prices plummeted, chemical fiber products lost cost support. Later, as crude oil prices recovered, the chemical fiber market gradually stabilized. However, insufficient demand is still the biggest problem facing the industry. In the third quarter, the performance of the chemical fiber market was basically stable; since September Starting from the middle of the year, due to downstream benefits such as the rebound of the domestic economy, the increase in cold winter demand caused by La Niña, the early start of Double Eleven order demand, and the substantial transfer of orders from India and other places, the chemical fiber market experienced a “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” market; after a short period of decline and adjustment, At the end of the fourth quarter, on the basis of rising costs, good demand, low inventory and other favorable factors, coupled with the long-term low price of chemical fiber products and poor corporate performance or even losses, the market had strong rebound demand, so the prices of chemical fiber products began to rebound ( Figure 3~Figure 7).
Data source: China Fiber Network
Figure 3 Price trend of polyester and its raw materials in 2019~2020 Picture
Data source: China Fiber Network
Figure 4 Nylon and its raw materials in 2019~2020 Price chart
Data source: China Fiber Network
Figure 5 2019~2020 Acrylic fiber and its Raw material price trend chart
Source: China Fiber Network
Figure 6 Price trend chart of spandex and its raw materials from 2019 to 2020
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Data source: China Fiber Network
Figure 7 Prices of viscose staple fiber and its raw materials in 2019~2020 Trend chart
(4) Operation quality and efficiency
In 2020, the economic performance of the chemical fiber industry will be obvious year-on-year Decline, data from the National Bureau of Statistics show: from January to December, the operating income of the chemical fiber industry was 798.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.41%; the total profit was 26.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.06%. The industry’s loss rate was 28.72%, and the losses of loss-making enterprises increased year-on-year. 22.99%. However, the economic performance has improved quarter by quarter. Among them, the year-on-year decline in total profits has gradually narrowed, and the increase in losses of loss-making enterprises has dropped significantly in the second half of the year (Figure 8). From the perspective of market performance, anti-epidemic materials related products, such as spandex and polyester Products such as staple fiber and bottle flakes are relatively profitable, and there are even short-term shortages. In addition, the performance of integrated refining and chemical companies is outstanding, and a number of companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Hengyi Petrochemical have achieved upstream and downstream integration earlier. Enterprises with chemical fiber development have shown good competitive advantages and risk resistance capabilities in coping with this severe market situation, but this part of the profits may not be counted in the chemical fiber industry.
Datasource:NationalBureauofStatistics
Figure8Year-on-yearchangesintotalprofitsandlossesofloss-makingenterprisesinthechemicalfiberindustryin2020
Thechemicalfiberindustryisundergreatoperatingpressurein2020,andthemainoperatingqualityindicatorshavedeclinedsignificantlycomparedwith2019,butaregraduallyimproving.Profitabilityhasdeclined,andtheoperatingincomeprofitmarginis3.3%,ayear-on-yeardecreaseof0.18pointspercentagepoints;developmentcapabilitieswereaffected,andtheoperatingincomegrowthratedroppedby14.41percentagepointsyear-on-year;operatingcapabilitieswerenotasgoodasthesameperiodin2019,andtheaccountsreceivableturnoverrate,finishedproductturnoverrate,currentassetturnoverrateandtotalassetturnoverratealldeclinedyear-on-year;threeThefeeratioincreasedby0.26percentagepointsyear-on-year.
(5)Fixedassetinvestment
TheCOVID-19epidemichascoupledwiththedeclineinindustryprosperity,andcorporateinvestmentWillingnesshasdeclined,thescaleofinvestmenthasbeenreduced,andtheproductioncapacityofsomeprojectshasbeendelayed.AccordingtodatafromtheNationalBureauofStatistics,fixedassetinvestmentinthechemicalfiberindustrydecreasedby19.4%year-on-yearin2020(Figure9).
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
Figure 9 Growth in fixed asset investment in the chemical fiber industry from 2008 to 2020 Rapid changes
Prospects for the operation of the chemical fiber industry in 2021
The most difficult year of 2020 has passed. Looking forward to 2021, the gradual economic development Recovery will provide guarantee for the sustained recovery and steady development of the chemical fiber industry.
From the demand side, my country’s and global textile industry production will continue to consolidate and resume growth, my country’s textile and apparel exports will continue to maintain growth momentum, and the domestic consumer market will also continue to rebound, which will provide growth momentum for the chemical fiber industry.
From the raw material side, with the gradual recovery of the world economy, it is expected that the price center of international oil prices in 2021 will be significantly higher than that in 2020, and the chemical fiber market price has a certain level on the cost side. support. However, as oil prices continue to rise, global crude oil production is likely to increase, which will also limit the upside of international oil prices. In addition, my country’s polyester raw materials PX, PTA, and MEG are still in a high production expansion cycle in 2021. The domestic supply shortage of PX and MEG will be alleviated, and the supply of PTA will remain loose. This will, to a certain extent, hedge against the effects of higher oil prices. cost support, and the profits of the industrial chain will be transferred from the raw material end to the back end.
From the perspective of new production capacity in the industry, 2021 is still the period when the chemical fiber industry, especially polyester and polyester production capacity, will be intensively put into production. The contradiction between production capacity will be highlighted in stages. Can the growth of demand be effective? Growth in digestion capacity remains to be seen. Moreover, most of the new production capacity is concentrated in leading chemical fiber companies, which will also further consolidate the scale cost advantages of leading companies and intensify the crowding out effect on other companies to a certain extent.
The overall judgment is that the chemical fiber industry will continue to be in a recovery cycle in 2021, but the process will not be smooth sailing, and market volatility may increase. It is expected that operating indicators such as chemical fiber output and economic benefits will be significantly better than in 2020. However, due to a low base in the first half of 2020 and continued recovery in the second half of the year, the growth rate of various industry indicators in 2021 will show a clear trend. Low trend. In terms of exports, as the risk of a global pandemic is decreasing, demand in the textile and apparel market is picking up, and international logistics is recovering quickly, it is expected that chemical fiber exports will return to growth.
In the long run, the epidemic will accelerate the structural adjustment of my country’s chemical fiber industry, further promote the supply-side structural reform of the industry, and also prompt companies to think about how to layout and develop in the future. In the post-epidemic era, “innovation, safety, and environmental protection” will become the focus of the industry. Strengthen independent innovation, integrate new materials, new technologies, and the trend of domestic consumption upgrading, continuously improve product quality and technological added value, explore new demands, and improve the level of intelligent manufacturing. Through the implementation of intelligent manufacturing and the integration of industrial chain data resources, we can realize “all things “Internet”; at the same time, industrial security cannot be ignored. Chemical fiber raw materials are highly dependent on petroleum resources, and regenerated cellulose fiber raw materials are highly dependent on imports. These all have potential industrial safety risks; in the field of environmental protection, my country has proposed that “carbon emissions will peak before 2030.” “, striving to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060” will further promote and accelerate the pace of green transformation and upgrading of the chemical fiber industry.
, through the implementation of intelligent manufacturing and the integration of industrial chain data resources to achieve the “Internet of Everything”; at the same time, industrial security cannot be ignored. Chemical fiber raw materials are highly dependent on petroleum resources, and regenerated cellulose fiber raw materials are highly dependent on imports, which all have potential industrial safety risks; In the field of environmental protection, my country has proposed the goal of “peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and striving to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060”, which will further promote and accelerate the green transformation and upgrading of the chemical fiber industry. </p
