Introduction: On the 12th, most polyester filament companies had preferential promotions, and downstream users bought at low prices. Overall production and sales picked up, and some companies increased production and sales. As of 15:55 that day, the factory’s mainstream production and sales were 582%, an increase of 550.3% from the previous trading day. Some factories are still receiving orders. Is the turning point for polyester filament coming?
From the perspective of raw materials
There are many PTA routine maintenance devices during the month. It is expected that domestic The PTA factory reported destocking status. There is still support. The current processing range of PTA is relatively low. In the short term, the start-up of the polyester end is high, and the demand is still supported. During the month, PTA is mainly constrained by poor production and sales of the polyester end. In terms of ethylene glycol, the operating load is basically stable, inventories continue to remain low, and the market is still supported in the short term. The upward pressure is mainly subject to the launch of more remote new production capacity and greater long-term supply pressure.
Polyester filament aspect
Price and profit comparison chart of mainstream models of direct-spun polyester filament:
Source: Longzhong Information
Polyester as of April 12 The profit margin of mainstream filament models is 400-700 yuan/ton, and profits have weakened from high levels and are showing a downward trend. Taking into account that some downstream factories have reached the purchasing node, factories offered profit for shipments yesterday, and the production and sales volume was mostly between 300% and 600%. Due to the relatively high early prices of large manufacturers, the daily shipment volume of large manufacturers was relatively large, between 800% and 1000%. %, but in terms of supply, polyester filament supply is expected to increase in the second half of the month, and polyester filament factories may continue to be under pressure from inventory accumulation.
Inventory days changes in the domestic direct spinning polyester filament industry in 2020:
Source: Longzhong Information
According to statistics from Longzhong Information, as of last Thursday, the mainstream POY factory inventory was around 18-25 days; the FDY factory inventory was mostly around 20.26 days; the overall DTY inventory was around 29.35 days nearby. Yesterday, the production and sales volume of some large polyester filament manufacturers was relatively high. It took 10 days to go to the warehouse, and most of them took 3-6 days to go to the warehouse. The main warehouses were POY, followed by FDY, and the overall performance of DTY was relatively average.
Considering that current terminal demand is the dominant factor affecting the market price of polyester filament, the current situation of new downstream orders is not good, and the placement of overseas orders is not smooth and other factors are restricting the price of polyester filament. On the upside, based on the current cost inventory of polyester yarn and the current round of downstream purchasing volume, if there is no major positive support from the downstream demand side and macro aspects, there are still expectations for further profit-making shipments of polyester filament at the end of the month. In the short term, with the increase in May-June Under the guidance of weak demand-side expectations, the inflection point of polyester filament has not yet appeared in the short term, and the market may mainly maintain weak operation. </p
