Polyester filament, which has been silent for a long time, finally broke out on the 12th. Production and sales have risen sharply, with some companies’ production and sales reaching 300%, 400%, 600%, 750%, or even 1,000%. The mainstream production and sales of factories are 582%, an increase of 550.3% from the previous trading day. Downstream weaving companies are highly motivated to purchase, and polyester factories have achieved remarkable results in destocking. As of last Thursday, POY factory inventories were generally around 18-25 days; FDY factory inventories were mostly around 20.26 days; DTY inventories were generally around 29.35 days. On the 12th, the production and sales volume of some large polyester filament manufacturers was relatively high. It took 10 days to go to the warehouse, and most of them took 3-6 days to go to the warehouse. The main warehouses were POY.
However, in previous years, the polyester yarn market production and sales increased sharply, which promoted the continuous rise of polyester yarn. However, this year is much different than in previous years. Since the beginning of this year, the warm sales trend is difficult to last. Like the last few one-day market tours, after the polyester filament production and sales broke out on the same day, the market once again returned to dullness. On the 14th, polyester filament production and sales experienced a major decline. The factory’s mainstream production and sales were only 41%, a decrease of 487% from the previous day.
Why are production and sales so popular but only for “one-day tours”?
Although the current price of raw materials is acceptable, today is different from the past, and the expectation of a decline in polyester filament has always been there. Since the large-scale production of PTA this year, the weak pattern of PTA has been basically determined. The cost support of polyester filament no longer exists. In addition, since the epidemic has recurred and Sino-US trade relations have once again entered a tense stage, the polyester industry chain has fallen into a relatively sluggish state. In addition, polyester factories still have large profit margins. It is understood that as of April 12, the profit margins of mainstream polyester filament models are 400-700 yuan/ton. Although profits have weakened from high levels and are showing a downward trend, At the same time, the raw materials in weaving factories have been exhausted, and replenishment is ushering in stimulated by the substantial profit concessions from polyester factories. However, some major manufacturers raised prices again on the 13th, and the profits of polyester filament remained high. The phenomenon of non-payment caused by the price increase is obvious.
Therefore, even in the context of low weaving raw material inventory, the operation of the industrial chain is too conservative.
Of course, the answer lies not only in the acceptance of raw material prices, but also in the orders for downstream products. Recently, affected by the bearish macro outlook, the performance of weaving end products has been weak, which has greatly dragged down raw materials. As the sluggish market in the peak season deepens, both the fabric and texturing markets will face the pressure of rising costs and shrinking demand, and the “sufficiency” of the industry chain is becoming increasingly prominent.
With the wide rise in international crude oil and the increase in polymerization costs after the year, the recovery of terminal demand is expected to be more optimistic, and the textile and apparel market will usher in a wave of surge in raw material prices. However, this wave of price increases failed to last for a long time. According to research by Longzhong Information, some urgent orders for foreign trade were placed in March. However, since most European and American brands boycotted Xinjiang cotton, orders have dropped sharply. Orders from weaving factories are still decreasing in April, and the overall number of orders is not large. At present, only elastic and four-way nylon and other categories are slightly popular, while orders for other specifications are scarce. As of April 9, according to research by Longzhong Information, the weaving operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 76.05%.
Judging from the situation of the weaving factory, after buying and selling, the current sales of gray fabrics The situation is still difficult to open up, and there are fewer products for sale, which has led to the continued increase in the inventory of weaving companies. In fact, the hot sales of polyester factories have once again caused part of the raw material inventory to be transferred to weaving companies. At present, it seems that it has not been effectively transmitted to the terminal.
The crux of the contradiction in the entire industry chain lies in the double increase in raw materials and weaving inventories in weaving factories. After this wave of operations, it is believed that the desire to purchase raw materials will become less and less, and the inventory of raw materials will increase again. It cannot be passed on to weaving. From a supply point of view, the supply of polyester filament is expected to increase in the second half of the month, and polyester factories continue to be under pressure from inventory accumulation. As a result, the entire industry chain has poor expectations for the market outlook.
Considering that current terminal demand is the dominant factor affecting the market price of polyester filament, the current situation of new downstream orders is not good, and the placement of overseas orders is not smooth and other factors are restricting the price of polyester filament. On the upside, the follow-up of terminal orders is not smooth, and the production and sales volume is pulsating, which is difficult to maintain. Therefore, based on the current cost inventory of polyester yarn and the current round of downstream purchasing volume, it is expected that after the recent slight price increase, if there is no major positive support from the downstream demand side and macro aspects, polyester filament is still expected to be shipped at a further profit at the end of the month. </p
