In the near future, there are many maintenance plans for domestic PTA devices, and the pressure on the supply side will be significantly eased. However, the price of PTA is still greatly affected by the cost side, and it is expected that the price of PTA will follow the oscillation of oil prices.
In early March, the pta futures price approached 5,000 yuan/ton again, and then fluctuated and fell. Even though it rebounded recently with the support of multiple large-scale equipment shutdowns for maintenance, the increase was relatively restrained. As of the close of trading on April 13, the main pta futures contract was trading at 4,502 yuan/ton, down more than 10% from the previous high of 5,010 yuan/ton.
The pressure on the supply side has eased significantly
In March, domestic PTA device maintenance plans began to increase, including Hengli Petrochemical, Reignwood Petrochemical, Xinjiang Zhongtai Equipment from major manufacturers that have been in operation in the early stage have also joined the maintenance ranks. As of April 12, the daily operating rate of domestic PTA equipment was 81.02%, a decrease of 6.55 percentage points from the previous high and a decrease of 11.25 percentage points from the same period in 2020. Estimated based on the existing effective PTA production capacity, the domestic daily PTA production is approximately 137,300 tons, a decrease of approximately 5,300 tons from the previous high, and an increase of approximately 5,200 tons from the same period in 2020.
In April, the scale of domestic PTA device maintenance was still large, including planned maintenance of multiple devices such as Xinfengming, Ningbo Yisheng, Hengli Petrochemical Line 1, etc. According to estimates, if all maintenance plans in April are carried out as scheduled, the domestic PTA output will be approximately 3.8543 million tons, with a loss of approximately 1.2297 million tons, a decrease of approximately 652,600 tons from March, and the pressure on the domestic PTA supply side will be significantly eased.
The downstream operating rate remains high
Recently, the “sluggish follow-up” of terminal market orders has led to the overall trading volume of the polyester market turning weak. Inventories are generally at a low level. The demand for restocking has kept polyester and terminal loom operations at a high level, and PTA demand can still be supported to a certain extent. As of April 12, the daily operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 86.28%, an increase of 35.28 percentage points from the same period in 2020; the daily operating rate of polyester factories was 91.35%, an increase of 8.03 percentage points from the same period in 2020. Estimated based on existing production capacity, domestic daily polyester production is approximately 159,400 tons, an increase of approximately 22,300 tons compared with the same period in 2020, and daily demand for PTA is approximately 136,300 tons, an increase of approximately 19,000 tons compared with the same period in 2020.
The processing fee compression space is limited
Currently, the PTA processing fee (excluding acetic acid) is still at a low level of 300-400 yuan/ton. Generally speaking, 29-45 kilograms of acetic acid are needed to produce 1 ton of PTA. The sharp rise in domestic acetic acid prices this year makes it impossible to continue to be ignored when calculating PTA processing fees. Assuming that 35 kilograms of acetic acid are used to produce 1 ton of PTA, the domestic PTA processing fee has dropped to less than 200 yuan/ton. Almost all domestic PTA production devices are at a loss, so there is limited room for further compression of domestic PTA processing fees. As of April 12, the domestic PTA processing fee (excluding acetic acid) is approximately 344.53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 446 yuan/ton compared with the same period in 2020. After adding the price of acetic acid, the domestic PTA processing fee is approximately 90.78 yuan/ton, which is lower than the same period in 2020. In the same period of 2020, it dropped by 629.75 yuan/ton.
In summary, the factor that currently has the greatest impact on the PTA market still comes from the cost side. Recently, the international crude oil market has been intertwined with long and short factors, and oil prices have fluctuated widely. With the significant impact on the cost side, short-term PTA futures prices will continue to follow the oil price oscillations. </p
