As of the close of the domestic futures market on April 15, most commodity futures have risen, with energy and chemicals leading the gains, with fuel and ferrosilicon rising by more than 5%, and crude oil rising by more than 4%.
An asphalt fuel researcher at a futures company in South China told a reporter from Futures Daily that the current decline in U.S. oil inventories is greater than expected, and the IEA and OPEC have increased oil demand. In fact, on the supply side, other OPEC countries except Saudi Arabia are increasing production, and the fundamentals do not actually support the continued rise of crude oil. At present, despite the stagnation of global vaccine promotion and the worsening of the epidemic in Brazil and India, crude oil prices have continued to rise in the recent past, which can be explained by the impact of expectations of monetary easing.
Judging from the news, Fed Chairman Powell recently said, “When we have made significant progress toward the goals we set in December last year, we will reduce the size of our bond purchases, which is likely to be much earlier than we did. Consider the time to raise interest rates. We have not yet voted on this, but this is a guideline.”
“From the perspective of the Fed’s expectation management, the market realizes that as the epidemic improves, easing policies will be gradually withdrawn; at the same time “The recent frequent vaccine issues have also led the market to believe that although the withdrawal of easing policy will be delayed, it will continue to be easing, which is the driver of the recent rebound in oil prices.” the above-mentioned researcher told reporters.
Regarding the attack on Saudi oil facilities by the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, the researcher said that historically, attacks are prone to causing emotional panic and triggering sharp fluctuations in oil prices. However, after experiencing the recent Suez Canal incident, it can be seen that the supply shortage caused by the attack is short-term. However, if the attack has an irreversible impact on crude oil supply, the impact on the oil market will be more lasting.
Looking ahead to the market outlook, Li Yunxu, a crude oil analyst at SDIC Essence Futures, said that since the expectation that many European and American countries will gradually achieve herd immunity and relax blockades in the middle of the year is currently difficult to falsify, a continued recovery in crude oil demand is still a high probability event, and supply It is difficult to reverse the tight situation and the expectation of destocking, and it is still not appropriate to be bearish on oil prices at the moment. In the short term, the Iranian nuclear negotiations are still inconclusive, and we are mainly waiting for the release of details on the pace of the United States lifting sanctions on Iran in the later period. There may still be major disturbances in the short-term news. Recently, the epidemic situation in Europe and India has worsened again, the short-term increase in demand is limited and supply-side risks have increased. The long-term and short-term logic has diverged, and oil prices may continue to oscillate at high levels. </p
