Recently, the price of Zheng Cotton CF2109 contract has continued to consolidate at 15,000-15,500 yuan/ton box. The sentiments of both bulls and bears have stabilized. In the short term, they are waiting for relevant policies in April/May and changes in cotton planting area in 2021. Factors such as the weather in the main cotton-producing areas are clear. Cotton processing enterprises and traders’ basis quotations and “point price” sales of pending orders are still proceeding in an orderly manner. Compared with the large amount of resources put on the shelves by cotton enterprises and their strong willingness to ship, cotton textile enterprises concentrated on restocking a large amount of inventory before the end of April or even early May. Enthusiasm is not high, and the strategy of “buy as you use, purchase based on order” is the mainstream.
Judging from the feedback from downstream small and medium-sized yarn mills and weaving enterprises, the current difficulties encountered can be summarized as follows
1 Since January 2021, banks’ credit support for small and medium-sized cotton textile enterprises has declined significantly compared with the first half of 2020, and the difficulty of loans has gradually increased (the operation of “repaying first and then borrowing” is mainly the operation, deferred loan repayment or “borrowing new loans”). “There is little hope of returning the old”), some textile enterprises said that the pressure on capital flow continues to rise;
Secondly, with the release of some domestic sales orders for autumn and winter, although cotton yarn and gray fabrics have accumulated inventory , but it is not outstanding. There are very few companies that have reduced production and suspension in the near future. However, the cash flow of consumer end customers such as fabrics, clothing and foreign trade companies is generally tight. It is increasingly difficult to pay back the gauze in time. Some customers even put forward credit, 1-3 Various payment methods such as monthly account period, letter of credit, etc.;
Third, the price and cost reduction of foreign trade orders or processing orders distributed by large companies are serious. Although general contracts The quantity is large, the processing period is long, and the proportional payment is relatively timely. However, considering that profits are not high, RMB appreciation, and raw materials such as cotton/polyester staple fiber may still fluctuate significantly in the second and third quarters of 2021, textile companies are unwilling to, They dare not take long-term orders;
Fourthly, compared with large-scale cotton textile enterprises, it is “difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises to recruit people, retain people, and train talents.” Therefore, “employment is more difficult.” The problem of “shortage” is relatively common. A yarn factory in Handan, Hebei Province said that the current job vacancy rate is 10%-15%. On the one hand, it is limited by the working environment, office conditions, and factory location. Young and educated people are not willing to enter the factory; on the other hand, salary and benefits It is also lower than that of large factories or enterprises in southeastern coastal areas. </p
