According to multiple foreign media reports on the 21st, Australian Foreign Minister Payne announced in a statement that day that the “One Belt, One Road” agreement previously signed between the Australian state of Victoria and China has been canceled by the country’s federal government. Payne said in a statement that the agreement was inconsistent with Australia’s foreign policy.
The Chinese Embassy in Australia responded: We are disappointed with the Australian Foreign Minister’s announcement on April 21 to tear up the “Belt and Road” memorandum and framework signed between China and the Australian government of Victoria. expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to the agreement.
The “Belt and Road” is an economic cooperation initiative that always adheres to the principle of extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits, and advocates the spirit of openness, inclusiveness and transparency. It has brought practical results to all parties involved. Real benefits. Cooperation between China and Victoria, Australia, under the framework of the “Belt and Road Initiative” will be conducive to deepening economic and trade relations between the two sides, promoting Victoria’s economic development, and improving the well-being of the people of Victoria.
Australia’s move is another unreasonable provocation against China. It once again shows that Australia has no sincerity in improving China-Australia relations. It is bound to cause further damage to bilateral relations and will also shoot itself in the foot.
At around 6 o’clock this morning, foreign media quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that the administration of US President Biden expressed its willingness to relax restrictions on Iran’s oil, finance, steel, aluminum, automobile and other industries. Restrictive measures, but Iran hopes to see more concrete measures, which will help narrow the differences in negotiations.
People involved in the negotiations said progress was being made as the United States laid out more clearly what it was prepared to propose to lift sanctions.
On the 21st, commodity futures were evenly split between red and green, with most of the energy and chemical varieties at the top of the decline list. Staple fiber fell 3.4%, ethylene glycol fell another nearly 3%, while styrene continued to surge. The strong performance of U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean oil in the external market overnight encouraged the bullish sentiment in the domestic oil and fat market. Palm oil rose by more than 4%, soybean oil and soybean oil rose by nearly 3%, and rapeseed meal and soybean oil were also boosted.
During the night session, thermal coal rose strongly. As of the close of the night session, the thermal coal 2109 contract rose 4.93%.
The renewed outbreak of the global COVID-19 epidemic is having an impact on global financial and commodity markets.
Asia is the hardest hit area by this epidemic. According to Indian government statistics, there were 295,041 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country within 24 hours on April 21. The number of new cases hit a new high, with the total number of confirmed cases reaching 15.6 million. Japan’s Kyodo News Agency reported that the Japanese government is considering issuing an emergency declaration for Tokyo, Osaka Prefecture, and Hyogo Prefecture, where the new coronavirus epidemic has continued to expand recently.
After news broke that Japan would issue a third emergency declaration, the Nikkei 225 Index closed down 2% on Wednesday, and Japan’s Topix Index closed down 2%. European and American markets also fell across the board overnight. The three major European stock indexes all closed lower, with France’s CAC40 index falling by 2.09%, Britain’s FTSE 100 index falling by 2%, and Germany’s DAX index falling by 1.55%. The European Stoxx 600 index finally closed down 1.9%. The index had just hit a new high since the epidemic.
Precious metals all rose. New York gold futures rose for the second consecutive day, hitting a new high since late February for the second time in the last four trading days. COMEX June gold futures closed up 0.8% at $1,793.10 per ounce, setting a new record high for the main contract since February 24 set last Friday.
International oil prices ended lower for the second consecutive day, hitting another one-week low. WTI June crude oil futures closed down 2.10%, at $61.35/barrel; Brent June crude oil futures closed down 2.58%, at $65.32/barrel, both recording the largest closing decline since April 5, and marking the second consecutive day Hitting a new low since April 13.
As the COVID-19 epidemic intensifies, oil prices have fallen sharply for two consecutive days
Recently, oil prices have fallen for two consecutive days. The market sentiment is pessimistic. The main SC contract 2106 dived during the day, and then the decline expanded slightly. After the opening of night trading, SC’s main contract 2106 continued to fall, leading the decline in the commodity market. In addition, low-sulfur fuel oil fell by more than 2%, fuel oil futures fell by more than 1.5%, and most other chemical products also fell.
“The trend of domestic SC crude oil started to be weaker than that of the external market after the plunge on Tuesday night. We observed that the price rebounded from the low level after the plunge of the external market, but the price of domestic SC crude oil yesterday After a brief rebound during the day, it continued to decline, and once refreshed the intraday low, which was significantly weaker than the international oil price.” Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, said that on the one hand, this performance is due to the overall decline in oil prices. In fact, crude oil is not The international stock market, copper and other risk assets also experienced deep declines in the night before yesterday. This was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic in India, Japan and other countries, which increased investor concerns and significantly cooled risk appetite, so there was a sell-off of risk assets. phenomenon; in addition, the strengthening of the US dollar has also suppressed the performance of commodities to a certain extent, while factors such as the orderly advancement of Iranian sanctions have suppressed oil prices.
However, in Yang An’s view, although oil prices are diving again, the main logic affecting oil prices is still relatively bullish. “Global economic recovery indicators and crude oil market demand expectations are improving, which provides solid support for the strengthening of oil prices. However, the troubles caused by the epidemic and other factors will affect the trend of oil prices. In addition, the oil price itself is at its lowest level in more than a year. In the relatively high area, financial views are prone to swings, so when long and short factors are intertwined, it isHistorically relatively low, thus supporting the price of soybean oil and other oils. On the other hand, domestic oil and fat inventories are also continuing to fall. As of last week, the total domestic commercial inventory was 570,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 36.6%, the national port edible palm oil inventory was 420,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 30.55%, and the East China vegetable oil inventory was 196,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.25%. ”Zhou Fangying introduced.
In the medium to long term, Zhou Fangying said that global oil inventories and inventory-to-sales ratios have fallen from high levels, and the fundamentals have gradually shifted from loose supply and demand to tight balance, which is reflected in prices. The focus of the entire oil and fat sector continues to shift upward. According to the data, the global vegetable oil depot sales ratio has dropped from a high of 10.40% in 2014/2015 to 7.5% in 2020/2021. Although there are recurrences in the middle, the general trend is to destock.
In Chen Yanjie’s view, the main influencing factor for the high oscillations of domestic and foreign vegetable oils since mid-March is external vegetable oils, because the international supply and demand of vegetable oils is tighter than domestic. “March In the second half of the year, CBOT soybean oil took the lead in closing positions to make profits. Horse palm production and inventory expectations made the market continue to weaken. However, the recent horse palm supply and demand expectations in April made the market rise again. The recent highs have fluctuated sharply, perhaps due to concerns that the international vegetable oil supply and demand stage may change. However, exports in April show that the actual demand for international vegetable oil is still good. ”
She said that the current core factor of domestic and foreign oil prices still lies in the supply side. The demand is good, but the supply is still too small. Even if the output of horse palm begins to increase, the initial output of the increase will It is difficult to recover quickly. The fundamental reason for the sharp rise in the price center of vegetable oils at home and abroad is still from insufficient supply. International oilseeds are produced and sold every year. Only when new crops increase production and are launched in large quantities can the supply shortage in the current season be effectively alleviated.
So, from a fundamental point of view, will the oil and fat varieties get rid of the strong oscillation operating pattern in the future and get out of the trend market? In this regard, Zhou Fangying said that because the pricing power of the oil and fat sector is in foreign countries, , the key to the future oil market lies in the changes in peripheral oil production and inventory. Seasonally, horse palm production began to rebound in March, and inventory is expected to accumulate in June, which may put pressure on prices. There are certain problems in U.S. soybeans and U.S. soybean oil. Uncertainty, the USDA estimates that the sown area of US soybeans in 2021 will increase by 5.4% year-on-year to 87.6 million acres, but the yield and final output will still depend on the weather in the later production areas. The market is currently trading on expectations for accumulation of Yueyue oils and fats, We see that the far-month contract of oil is at a deep discount. In this case, the possibility of a sharp unilateral decline in oil is unlikely, unless the later accumulation of stocks is higher than expected.
“Therefore , under the game of strong reality and weak expectations, the trend of the oil and fat sector is relatively difficult to see, and there are still many uncertain factors behind it. “Zhou Fangying said.
Chen Yanjie said that from the data point of view, the recovery of international palm oil production and inventory is expected to accelerate after June, and domestic soybean oil supply is expected to increase in inventory from May to June. After falling and rebounding, domestic and foreign vegetable oils may be significantly weaker at this stage. However, before that, that is, from April to June, there are potential positives in the expected new soybean crop area and firewood policy expectations in the United States, and domestic and foreign vegetable oils may still be relatively strong at this stage. Therefore, from From the perspective of the mid-term supply and demand expectations of international palm oil and concerns about domestic policy regulation, the probability that domestic and foreign vegetable oils will once again follow an obvious trend of rising prices is small. However, there is a very short supply of international vegetable oils, and amid concerns about an international squeeze, the possibility of a short-term surge in prices still exists. </p
