In late February, all Zheng cotton contracts peaked and plunged, and the ex-factory price of cotton yarn also fluctuated and fell. It was not until mid-April that it gradually stabilized. Compared with the current price of cotton, which generally dropped by more than 2,000 yuan/ton, the transaction price of cotton yarn also fell. 1500-2000 yuan/ton (the adjustment range for OE yarn and low-count yarn is about 1000-1500 yuan/ton). At present, in the light textile markets of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Shandong and other places, there are widespread reports that traders hoarding yarns have suffered serious losses. Some middlemen have no plans to restock cotton yarns and blended yarns before the end of April. Dealing with high-priced inventories and collecting payment in a timely manner are top priorities. .
Is there really a loss?
According to the investigation of some yarn mills and middlemen, the phenomenon of inverted purchase and sales of cotton yarn traders does exist, but the extent does not reach 1,000-2,000 yuan/ton. The reasons are as follows:
1. Cotton yarn traders in various light textile markets mainly purchase cotton yarn from before the Spring Festival to late February (CF2109 contract 15,000-16,000 yuan/ton), and they are very cautious when placing orders above 16,000 yuan/ton for the main contract ( Even if there is a large order, there is basically a contract and the downstream customer pays a deposit), and traders’ peripheral news and terminal consumption feedback are very timely;
2. Cotton yarn trade in various light textile markets Commercial operations are almost all “short-term, flat and fast” operations (limited by funds, resources, customer groups, etc., there are very few large-scale stockpiles). The Zheng cotton CF2109 contract fell below 16,000 yuan/ton in mid-March. Traders One after another, traders are stepping up their clearance sales. On the one hand, traders “turn around when the boat is small”; on the other hand, traders pay in various ways and have flexible pricing. They take advantage of the situation. The transaction price of cotton yarn itself is a dynamic and gradual falling process;
3. With the increase in Zhengzhou yarn delivery warehouses, delivery product indicators and cotton yarn warehouse receipt validity period and other standards becoming more and more reasonable, the enthusiasm of cotton yarn traders for hedging has also increased significantly (some companies use cotton hedging, To avoid risks for cotton yarn spot). For cotton mills and traders, the awareness of not doing “exposed” business and always guarding against business risks is becoming more and more popular.
March cotton textile enterprise survey report: production increased month-on-month and raw material inventory increased slightly
Survey respondents : Cotton textile enterprises in Xinjiang, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hubei, Anhui, Jiangxi, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hunan and other provinces and autonomous regions.
In March, orders from textile companies were relatively sufficient, and finished product inventories remained at a low level. Due to the lower-than-expected new orders in the market and the impact of the Xinjiang cotton incident, companies’ confidence in the market outlook has decreased. According to a survey of more than 90 designated textile companies across the country by the China Cotton Early Warning System, textile companies’ raw material inventories increased slightly this month, textile output increased month-on-month, and yarn inventories and cloth inventories increased slightly.
01 Textile output increased month-on-month
Textile companies basically receive orders around April before and after the Spring Festival, so companies start operations in March The rate is still at a high level and output has increased significantly. According to the survey, yarn output increased by 10.6% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year, of which: pure cotton yarn accounted for 63.6%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month; blended yarn and chemical fiber yarn accounted for 36.4%, an increase of 36.4% from the previous month. It rose by 2.1 percentage points last month.
Cloth output increased by 9.7% month-on-month and 4.4% year-on-year, among which: the proportion of pure cotton cloth decreased by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. The yarn sales rate was 90%, down 3 percentage points from the previous month.
The current yarn inventory of textile enterprises is 9.43 days, an increase of 0.46 days from the previous month. Gray cloth inventory is 15.23 days, an increase of 0.58 days from the previous month.
02 Cotton yarn prices at home and abroad continue to rise
Cotton yarn prices at home and abroad continue to rise this month. The average price of domestic 32-count pure cotton yarn in March was 25,514 yuan/ton, an increase of 775 yuan/ton, or 3.13%, from the previous month, and an increase of 5,070 yuan/ton, or 24.8% from the same period last year; imported 32-count pure cotton yarn The monthly average price was 25,636 yuan/ton, an increase of 858 yuan/ton, or 3.46%, from the previous month, and an increase of 5,276 yuan/ton, or 25.91%, from the same period last year.
03 Enterprise raw material inventories increased slightly
Cotton prices fell back this month, textile enterprises replenished their stocks at low prices, and raw material inventories increased slightly. . As of March 31, the cotton industrial inventory of textile companies in the warehouse was 917,500 tons, an increase of 35,100 tons from the end of last month and a year-on-year increase of 203,300 tons. Among them: 23% of companies reduced cotton inventories, 33% increased inventories, and 44% remained basically unchanged.
Product sales
Tracking data shows that yarn and cloth sales increased by 56.40% and 68.51% month-on-month respectively in March. The production and marketing situation has recovered significantly.
From a price point of view, the price of raw materials fell, and the prices of yarn and cloth products followed suit. On March 31, the prices of 32-count pure cotton carded yarn, 30-count pure viscose yarn and 32-count pure polyester yarn dropped by 4.79%, 4.86% and 6.02% respectively from the previous month. The price of imported yarn fell overall. Among them, the price of rapier 32-count pure cotton yarn imported from Vietnam fell by 4.92% month-on-month, which was basically the same as the price of domestic 32-count pure cotton carded yarn. The price of gray fabrics followed the decline. On March 31, the price of cotton gray fabrics 32*32 130*70 2/1 47″ twill was 6.00 yuan/meter, down 1.64% from the previous month.
As of the end of March , yarn and cloth inventories fell by 4.75% and 4.48% respectively month-on-month. In the first half of March, market purchases and sales were smooth, and corporate inventories declined overall. In the second half of March, downstream shipments were delayed, and inventories began to accumulate. Most companies had inventories of about 10 days, and some companies were close to 20 days, but still at a low level. The inventory increase of weaving enterprises is higher than that of spinning enterprises.
Expectations of global economic recovery have further heated up, followed by an increase in global inflation expectations, and raw material prices are expected to remain The possibility of shock is greater. Overseas epidemics have repeated, terminal markets are hesitant to place orders, coupled with the complex and severe international trade situation, and increasing uncertainties, the pressure on enterprise production and operation is still great.</p
