Zheng cotton futures rose strongly on the 23rd. The main 2109 contract rose to 3.16% during the session and closed up 2.49% in early trading. On the news, it snowed suddenly in Xinjiang. It is currently the cotton sowing period across the country, and some cotton seedlings have emerged in Xinjiang. However, snowfall and cooling have occurred in some areas of Xinjiang, and the market is worried that cotton seedlings will be damaged, leading to a reduction in production. Due to the continued snowfall, it is not yet possible to determine the specific damage.
In addition, at the closing of the domestic futures market on the afternoon of the 23rd, PVC rose by nearly 3%; ferroalloys all rose, with manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rising by more than 2%; agricultural products turned red, and palm oil rose by more than 2%. 2%, soybeans, pigs, and soybean oil rose nearly 2%.
Bitcoin, which hit a record high of $64,000 last week, has been repeatedly “beaten” this week.
On the 23rd, after news came out in the market that Biden would raise taxes on the rich, the price of Bitcoin fell below the US$49,000 and US$48,000 mark continuously, continuing to rise on March 6. It hit a new low since then, falling more than 11% in 24 hours. In addition, Dogecoin, which was popularized by Musk, fell by 24.42% in the day, Huobi fell by more than 11% in the day, and Ethereum fell by 6.25% in the day.
Bitcoin Home Network data shows that in the past 24 hours, a total of about 460,000 people liquidated their positions, and the funds liquidated were as high as US$3.255 billion, equivalent to about 21.1 billion yuan. The largest single liquidation order occurred on Huobi, with a value of up to US$11.28 million.
As the price of Bitcoin tumbles, things are getting worse for holders of the $35 billion Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which currently trades at a relatively There has been a record discount in the value of the digital assets it holds. At Thursday’s closing price, the difference between its price and the underlying value of its Bitcoin holdings amounts to about -19%. This is partly because the trust is not structured to allow for redemptions like most traditional ETFs. Holders of the trust must find buyers in the secondary market before they can resell, exacerbating the discount on units as bitcoin prices fall.
Mohit Bajaj, head of ETFs at WallachBeth Capital, said it will likely continue to trade at a discount until it switches to an ETF. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust also faces competition from Canada, which has approved a Bitcoin ETF, while U.S. regulators are still considering it.
Scott Minerd, one of the partners of Guggenheim Partners, recently warned that Bitcoin may have a sharp correction of 50%. He had previously been bullish on Bitcoin to $400,000.
Scott Minerd said that Bitcoin, which currently has the largest cryptocurrency market share in the world, is rising too fast. In view of the sharp rise in Bitcoin in the short term, the market has become very frothy. We believe that Bitcoin will have to undergo a major correction, and the price may drop to 20,000-30,000 US dollars, a drop of 50%.
Cotton futures prices hit a nearly one-month high
Talking about the sharp rise in cotton in the past two days He Meng, an analyst at Huaan Futures, said that on the one hand, the epidemic in India is out of control and the medical system is close to collapse, which may affect its local production activities. The market expects that some orders will return to China; on the other hand, the main domestic cotton producing areas Xinjiang experienced snowy and cooling weather in late April, which delayed some planting work. From a macro perspective, the market expects that the central bank will release liquidity in the near future, and the financial pressure on cotton spinning companies is expected to ease, supporting textile companies in purchasing cotton raw materials.
The survey results of the China Cotton Association in March showed that the national cotton sown area dropped by 5% year-on-year this year, and it is currently the domestic cotton sowing period. However, in the past two days, there have been Cooling and precipitation, while cooling and windy weather occurred in southern Xinjiang. Wet soil caused cotton sowing to be delayed in some areas. The market is also paying attention to the impact of cooling and strong winds on cotton seedlings.
From the perspective of downstream demand, although the inventories of yarn, cloth and other finished products began to accumulate in March, they were still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the overall inventory pressure was not Not big. Production companies have a need to restock cotton.
He Meng told reporters that due to external factors, many foreign trade orders have been affected. Except for a few large enterprises, the order situation is acceptable. Insufficient orders. “The out-of-control epidemic in India may have an impact on its local production activities, but the return of orders to China will have a limited impact on the market.”
The reporter learned that the recent internal and external market trends are generally consistent, but The external market is stronger than the internal market. “U.S. cotton is currently in the planting stage, but the main cotton-producing area in western Texas continues to be dry. Although there has been rainfall recently, the moisture is still not ideal. This subject has also been traded on the ICE market.” He Meng said, U.S. Cotton Weekly The export data has been mixed. Due to the recent problems in Sino-US relations, the market has been worried about the export demand of US cotton. However, due to weather factors, subsequent ICE cotton prices are still easy to rise but difficult to fall. The strengthening of the external market has obvious support for the internal market.
In He Meng’s view, the recent rise in cotton has indeed been bullish, but compared with the previous sharp decline, the rise is also a need for correction. “During the growing period, if there are no obvious negative effects at the macro level, then the overall cotton price will be easy to rise but difficult to fall.”
It is worth noting that the current international trade relations are complex, although for my country’s domestic textile sales have little impact, but the foreign trade sector is greatly affected. Some export orders require certificates of origin for imported cotton.The increase has caused some companies to abandon orders. The epidemic situation in India, Europe and other regions is still severe, making the recovery of the global cotton spinning industry full of obstacles. He Meng believes that we cannot be overly optimistic about the subsequent demand for cotton. These negative effects will limit the space above cotton prices.
“The impact of the weather in the production areas on the supply of new season cotton will determine the later market changes. At the same time, the market must also pay attention to changes in macro policies, international trade relations, and foreign epidemics. situation and other factors,” He Meng said. </p
