Introduction: After experiencing the sluggish market in March, polyester staple fiber basically returned to the pulse-type production and sales structure in April. However, due to relatively weak terminal orders, the downstream market mainly relied on “rolling” rigid demand replenishment. At present, the market lacks confidence in the recovery of demand, and there is no real feedback on the rumors of the return of some overseas orders. There is a certain accumulation of inventory pressure in the short fiber market.
Comparison of polyester staple fiber production, sales and price trends
As shown in the figure above, at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, most industry players were more optimistic about textile orders this spring than expected. Therefore, there was generally more stocking in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, and the market was overdrawn in advance. This led to continued sluggish factory production and sales in March.
Comparison of stocking days for pure polyester yarn raw materials:
With the gradual digestion of low-priced supply in the market, the market basically returned to the pulse production and sales structure in April. However, due to the transformation of the polyester staple fiber trade structure since the futures listing, the current market trading method is in the throes of transformation, and the market is low. The supply of goods at low prices continues, and the characteristics of “rolling” downstream replenishment are highlighted, resulting in downstream companies continuing to have high raw material inventories. Even though the number of raw material stocking days for polyester yarn companies has dropped significantly in April, it is still higher than the same period in previous years.
Comparison of equity inventory and physical inventory trends of polyester staple fiber
Looking at short fiber inventory, according to the normal situation in the past, generally short fiber companies have normal inventory levels of 7-15 days. However, the current equity inventory value and the physical inventory value are quite different, which also increases the pressure on the industry. The difficulty of analyzing the market outlook. However, in reality, due to changes in trading methods, the influence of short fiber enterprise equity inventory indicators on the market has declined. Physical inventory indicators and the start-up, inventory, and order status of important downstream areas may better reflect the real supply and demand of the market.
Looking at the market outlook, although the spot processing fee space for polyester staple fiber has been at a low level, terminal orders have not yet improved, and the receipts have The traditional textile off-season will usher in again. The only hope at present is probably the return of some overseas orders. However, its quantitative impact is difficult to track, and the impact on pure cotton series is higher than that of polyester staple fiber. Therefore, for polyester staple fiber In terms of short-term market support, there are insufficient positive signals, and the market and spot gains may be difficult to sustain. </p
