On the supply side, PTA maintenance was intensified in April, market supply and demand continued to improve, and inventory removal was accelerated. In May, Hengli, Xinfengming 2#, Liwan Chemical and Yisheng Ningbo had parking plans, but the planned maintenance volume Overall, it was lower than in April. However, in view of the current sluggish processing fees and weakening terminal demand, the PTA factory does not rule out unplanned maintenance and is expected to continue destocking in May. However, due to the reduction in maintenance and the planned commissioning of 3.3 million tons of new production capacity of Yisheng New Materials, the PTA factory will The destocking speed of PTA is likely to slow down in March. It is recommended to closely follow the changes in PTA factory maintenance.
On the demand side, gold, silver, and silver have come to an end, and terminal demand has not exceeded expectations. Insufficient follow-up of new orders has restricted factories’ willingness to purchase raw materials, and polyester production and sales have returned to flat after a short period of price reductions. At present, demand in the second quarter is gradually entering the off-season. The operating rate of looms is expected to decline after May, which will weaken the demand for polyester raw materials and then transmit it to the upstream PTA market. In the short term, polyester is expected to maintain high production capacity stimulated by high profits, and there is still demand support for PTA. However, terminal demand will gradually weaken in the future, and in the case of insufficient orders, polyester profit-sharing promotions may not be able to achieve significant destocking, and as Due to the accumulation of finished product inventory pressure and the compression of production profits caused by profit concessions, polyester factories do not rule out the option of reducing production and reducing burdens, and are concerned about the risk of the evolution of negative demand feedback.
In terms of cost, two sets of PTA units were put into operation in the first quarter, and domestic PX production capacity was zero. The improvement in supply and demand structure prompted inventory depletion. Starting in February, the cracking spread gradually moved away from the bottom area of last year. The current Asian PX/naphtha The price difference between oil and PX/Brent oil remains around US$250 and US$350. At present, although the supply and demand of PX is relatively benign, due to the high maintenance rate of PTA and the expected start-up of PX, the continued expansion of the PX cracking spread is somewhat restrained. The fluctuations on the cost side of PTA come more from oil prices, and the driving force for the increase has weakened compared with the first quarter. .
Taken together, the benefits of PTA maintenance in May will continue, but the intensity is expected to decline month-on-month. While terminal weaving starts are seasonally weaker, there is a risk of polyester production reduction and burden reduction, and market supply and demand are expected to weaken. PTA may continue Follow cost fluctuations and pay attention to future oil price trends. </p
