Since mid-March, the epidemic in India has continued to attract high global attention. According to the latest data released by the Indian Ministry of Health, as of 8:00 local time on April 26 (10:30 Beijing time), India had 352,991 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the past 24 hours, marking five consecutive days of new confirmed cases in a single day. The number has broken records, with a total of more than 17 million confirmed cases.
According to reports from “The Hindu” and “The New York Times”, the actual number of people who have died from the epidemic in India is “far higher” than the official reported number. Indian Prime Minister Modi said on the 25th that a new wave of “tsunami-like” epidemic has shaken the entire country. With the new round of prevention and control upgrades and urban blockades, a large number of migrant workers are living in poverty. Another large-scale “return wave” will bring huge challenges to India’s vast rural epidemic prevention (India’s capital Lockdown extended for one week).
According to statistics, the main sources of my country’s cotton yarn imports from September 2020 to March 2021 are Vietnam, India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Indonesia, Taiwan, China, etc. It is worth noting that the gap between Uzbekistan’s cotton yarn imports and India and Pakistan continues to narrow (from September 2020 to December 2021, the proportion of Uzbek yarn imports was higher than that of Pakistan, and its proportion of Indian yarn was almost the same). With the new crown epidemic in India completely out of control, how much impact will it have on my country’s cotton yarn imports? The industry generally believes that the short-term impact will not be significant, the medium- and long-term negative effects are controllable, and Chinese companies’ dependence on Indian yarn is low.
First, due to the worsening of the epidemic and the escalation of prevention and control, Indian yarn mills have reduced production, but production suspensions and holidays are currently rare. Two cotton spinning mills and cotton enterprises in Gujarat, Maharashtra and other places said that because the scale of Indian cotton mills is generally relatively small and the employment of personnel is flexible; coupled with the government’s wavering between “economic or epidemic prevention”, except for New Delhi, most of the cotton spinning mills and cotton enterprises Some cities and towns have not implemented strict control and blockade. Therefore, although gauze production capacity and delivery have been affected to a certain extent, orders and shipments are still proceeding in an orderly manner;
Secondly, Since 2021, most Indian yarn mills require buyers to place orders 1.5 months or even 2 months in advance and pay the contract deposit in full; coupled with the sharp rise in Indian cotton yarn FOB/CNF quotations in the past two months, Chinese weaving The number of Indian yarn cargoes signed by factories and traders to purchase in the second and third quarters of 2021 is not large;
Third, as of late April, cotton yarn bonded + Customs clearance inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years, and storage capacity pressure is relatively high. According to feedback from cotton yarn traders in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong and other places, the current total inventory of Vietnamese yarn, Indian yarn, Pakistani yarn and Central Asian cotton yarn (mainly Uzbekistan yarn) at the port may reach about 200,000 tons, and short-term supply is sufficient;
Fourthly, some traders and fabric factories have increased inquiry, procurement and shipment of medium and high count black yarn and Vietnamese yarn, which have a strong substitution effect on 20S-60S Indian yarn. Judging from the survey, the current dominant variety of cotton yarn in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and other countries is ring spinning yarn of 50S and below, and the cotton grade, cotton yarn stability and supply capacity, and order scheduling period are not inferior to those of Indian yarn mills. , for Chinese buyers not only the transportation time is short, but also the delivery is convenient. </p
