In April, China, the United States, and India, the three major cotton-producing countries in the northern hemisphere, have entered or are about to face the cotton planting season. The cotton output of the three countries accounts for more than 60% of the total global cotton output. April is coming to an end, and the situations faced by these three countries are obviously different.
According to the planting period, cotton planting in China and the United States both started in April. In recent years, with the increasing mechanization of cotton planting in China, cotton planting can be basically completed in April, while concentrated planting in the United States occurs in May. Cotton planting in India started one after another in May. Due to climate problems, cotton can be planted for a little longer.
China’s cotton planting has basically ended, and the weather conditions in Xinjiang are weaker than in previous years
Up to now, most of the cotton in northern Xinjiang has been sown, and most of the cotton in southern Xinjiang has sprouted. This year, due to land transfers and falling water levels, some land has been left fallow and grain reserves have been reduced. Compared with last year, the planting area in northern Xinjiang has decreased, while southern Xinjiang has stabilized or slightly decreased. In the mainland, due to the obvious gains from grain planting last year There is an increase. Cotton planting is unsubsidized and time-consuming. The cotton planting area continues to decrease by 20-30%. Overall, the domestic cotton planting area may decline by 5%-7%.
Towards the end of the month, snowfall occurred in Wusu, Kutun and other places in northern Xinjiang, which caused some cotton fields to be replanted or replanted. This news once drove the cotton futures and spot prices to rise sharply, rising by nearly 400 points. . Judging from the reactions of local industry players, the weather conditions in northern Xinjiang this year are indeed more unstable than last year, and the temperature recovery is not smooth, which is not conducive to the emergence and early growth of cotton. Texas, in the United States, continues to suffer from drought and the planting process is not fast.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced in its weekly crop growth report that as of the week of April 25, The U.S. cotton planting rate was 12%, compared with 11% the previous week, 13% during the same period last year, and the five-year average of 11%.
Judging from the drought climate map released by the US Weather Bureau, drought areas are mainly concentrated in the Midwest, especially the Southwest, while the Southwest cotton The area accounts for more than half of the cotton planting area in the United States. Entering April, the price of US cotton continued to rise due to drought problems, and the overall trend was significantly stronger than that of Zheng cotton. Judging from the short-term weather forecast, there will be no effective rainfall in the area, and the advancement of planting will continue to affect the US cotton planting situation.
India is limited by the epidemic, but there may still be no need to worry too much about planting
India is the country with the largest cotton planting area and output in the world, but it has recently been limited by the epidemic. Judging from the current number of vaccinations, new infections and medical feedback in India, it is difficult for the epidemic situation to improve significantly until it begins to enter the cotton planting season. However, during the same period last year, India’s cotton planting also faced an intensification of the epidemic, and there were even consecutive country lockdowns. Cotton planting was still going smoothly that year. In addition, India’s per capita land is scarce, and the possibility of abandoning farming is very small.
Cotton planting in the new year is crucial to global cotton supply in the new year, especially China, the United States and India, which all play important roles in the global cotton market. As Chinese cotton enters the emergence and growth stages, the key point is to stabilize and recover temperatures. In the United States, rainfall in the southwest is crucial to its planting process. India is about to enter the planting period, and its epidemic situation and whether planting can be started smoothly are also the focus of attention.
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