PTA surged sharply on the 28th. With the release of news that major manufacturers were reducing their May contracts again, PTA actually showed signs of rising in the afternoon of the 28th. The rise continued during the day, closing at 4872 yuan. up 4.01%.
PTA2109 contract trend on the day
News came out of the market in late last month: “The device is undergoing maintenance Affected by the impact, some suppliers announced reductions in the execution of April contracts. For example, Yisheng Petrochemical’s April PTA contract was supplied at 80% of the annual contract quantity; Hengli Petrochemical’s April PTA contract was supplied at 70%; one month later, the PTA manufacturer contract The reduction in cargo volume is still ongoing. Yesterday, there was news that Yisheng Petrochemical will continue to reduce volume in May and supply at a 50% discount. This has become the driving force behind the strength of the PTA market again.
This time the reduction in contract cargo by major PTA manufacturers is mainly due to the Because the processing fee is too low, PTA factories either undergo intensive maintenance or the oversold volume cannot be fulfilled. On the one hand, under the pressure of huge social inventory, the spot price of PTA rises far less than the cost, and this phenomenon has become more and more serious in the near future. , resulting in continued narrowing of processing fees.
In the first quarter, the rise in international crude oil prices drove the cost of PTA to strengthen. The price of acetic acid, an auxiliary material that has always been ignored by the market, also rose sharply. Yesterday, most manufacturers quoted acetic acid at 7,900 —8100 yuan/ton, rising by 200 yuan/ton during the day. As a result, PTA production costs continued to rise, and the processing fee once dropped to less than 300 yuan/ton.
Data source: CCF
According to Jiang Shuopeng of Continent Futures, according to the calculation of the current device processing cost on the market, the processing difference is 300 yuan/ton, except for several large-scale equipment put into production since the end of 2018. Except for the cash flow of the device near the profit and loss line, the others are in a serious loss situation. The profits of the industry have gradually declined, causing small devices with high device costs to begin to stop production. It also increases the probability of equipment load reduction and maintenance, affecting the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start operations. Historically, Look, during the equipment maintenance period, the quantity of contracted goods often decreases.
Data source: CCF
However, the market rally has not yet reached a crazy level after the supply reduction. Mainly due to the fact that social stocks are still abundant. More companies are purchasing through the futures market, and futures warehouse receipts continue to flow out. As of April 26, the volume of PTA futures warehouse receipts has dropped by nearly 150,000 from the high in early March, totaling 750,000 tons of spot goods.
Regarding the market outlook, Xie Wen believes that the price driver of short-term PTA may still be on the cost side. The commissioning of new production capacity is expected to have short-term negative effects on PTA prices. However, considering the strength of the PX end, sluggish processing fees, increased maintenance volume, and stable downstream demand, PTA prices or ranges may move upward. </p
