Since entering the second quarter, countries in the northern hemisphere have begun spring sowing one after another, and the market’s attention to the supply of new cotton has increased significantly. As the three countries with the largest cotton production, weather and planting conditions in India, China and the United States have the most important impact on the market.
The spring sowing of cotton in Xinjiang has basically ended, and the cotton growth remains normal
At present, the spring sowing of cotton in Xinjiang has basically ended. , most of the areas in northern Xinjiang have been sown, and seedlings have begun to sprout in southern Xinjiang. According to survey data on the intended cotton planting area of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, China’s intended cotton planting area in 2021 is 45.426 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 256,000 acres, or 0.6%; of which the intended cotton planting area in Xinjiang is 35.927 million acres, an increase of 1.7% . Although the cotton planting area in the mainland has declined slightly, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has increased slightly, laying a solid foundation for cotton production this year.
In late April this year, a sudden strong wind, dust, rain, snow, and low temperature weather swept through some cotton-growing areas in northern and southern Xinjiang. The cotton seeds and developed cotton seedlings have had some impact. The areas involved in this disaster weather only include some cotton-producing areas, and this round of disaster weather lasts for a short time. The temperature rises quickly after the snow clears up, which reduces the damage of low temperature to cotton seeds and cotton seedlings. In some severely affected areas, local cotton farmers actively replanted and replanted in an effort to minimize losses. April to May is a period of frequent bad weather in Xinjiang, which causes more or less partial losses of cotton every year, but generally does not have much impact on the overall cotton production.
U.S. crop competition for land triggers hype weather and planting become the focus of attention
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture According to the report, the intended cotton planting area in the United States in 2021 is 12.036 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. In the past month, as the Chicago grain market has continued to soar, the competition for land for grain and cotton has become increasingly prominent. The market believes that the actual sown area of US cotton this year will be significantly lower than the intended area. At the same time, the recent drought in Texas has continued to develop, and the damage to crops has already occurred. If there is not enough rainfall in the later period, the cotton abandonment rate in the United States will increase sharply again this year, and the degree may be similar to that of ten years ago. In addition, recent rainfall and cooling in the Delta and Southeast regions of the United States have resulted in insufficient soil temperature accumulation, and new cotton planting has been repeatedly postponed. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of April 25, new cotton planting in the United States was 12% completed, one percentage point behind year-on-year, and Texas’ progress was 17%, one percentage point behind year-on-year.
The above situation has raised expectations that US cotton supply will tighten further next year, triggering a new round of market speculation. The cumulative increase in cotton in April has exceeded 15%.
The epidemic in India cannot be ignored
As the world’s largest cotton producer In China, it is very concerning whether the renewed outbreak of the epidemic in India will affect the upcoming new cotton planting. According to a report by the U.S. Agricultural Counselor, India’s cotton planting area is expected to decrease to 13 million hectares in 2021 due to high prices for competing crops. If monsoon rains are normal, yields are expected to increase by 5% and output is expected to increase by 3% to 29.7 million bales.
According to China Cotton Network, the Indian government requires cotton mills to try not to reduce or suspend production or take holidays. It is worried that the return of migrant workers will cause the further spread of the virus. Some cities have set up checkpoints. Prevent farmers from returning to their hometowns for spring farming. Cotton planting in India has started gradually since May. In the short term, the northern cotton areas where planting started first will have little impact, but areas such as Gujarat that started planting late will have an impact. The specific situation needs to be continuously tracked.
In addition, India’s cotton production is greatly affected by monsoon rains. According to the latest forecast from the India Meteorological Bureau, the southwest monsoon rain conditions in India in 2021 are basically normal. The rainfall is expected to be 98% of the long-term average. There is a 40% chance of normal distribution of rainfall. The actual development of rainfall needs to be followed up.
Based on the current situation of China, the United States and India, the current US market is the most concerning and has the most obvious impact on the market. After May, the market will need to continue to track the weather in Xinjiang, the weather in the United States and sowing progress, as well as the epidemic situation and rainfall in India. On May 12, the United States Department of Agriculture will release the global cotton production and demand forecast for 2021/22 for the first time, which has very important guiding significance for the medium and long-term development of market conditions, and the industry needs to focus on it. </p
