In April 2021, international oil prices fluctuated and rose, but the monthly average price fell back month-on-month. Single-day oil price fluctuations ≥ 2 US dollars/barrel occurred 3 times, of which supply and demand occurred 2 times, while oil production National news occurred once. That month, the average price of WTI was US$61.70/barrel, a month-on-month decrease of US$1.56/barrel or 2.47%. The event factor that contributes the most to crude oil prices is the dynamics of oil-producing countries, with an average single premium value of US$2.29/barrel; the event factors that contribute the most to crude oil prices are supply and demand, which have occurred 9 times in total (see below) surface).
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
On April 1, the ministers of OPEC and its production-reduction allies The meeting was held via video conference. The meeting approved production adjustment levels in May, June and July 2021, with each adjustment not exceeding 500,000 barrels per day, while continuing to comply with the 12th OPEC and its production reduction allies in December 2020. A mechanism agreed upon at the ministerial meeting, monthly ministerial meetings of OPEC and its production-cutting allies are held to assess market conditions and decide on the level of production adjustments for the next month.
The EIA monthly report raised its oil price forecast for this year and next. The prices of U.S. WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil are expected to be US$58.89/barrel and US$62.28/barrel respectively this year. Next year, US crude oil and Brent oil are expected to be US$56.74/barrel and US$56.74/barrel respectively. 60.49 US dollars/barrel, respectively increased by 1.99 US dollars/barrel and 1.98 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 3.5% and 3.4% respectively.
OPEC’s monthly report estimates that global average daily oil demand in 2020 is 90.51 million barrels, a decrease of 9.48 million barrels per day compared with 2019 and an increase of 120,000 barrels from the March report. The average daily global oil demand in 2021 is expected to be 96.46 million barrels, an increase of 5.89 million barrels per day compared with 2020, and an increase of 190,000 barrels from the April report.
The IEA monthly report predicts that global average daily oil demand will reach 96.7 million barrels in 2021, an increase of 5.7 million barrels per day compared with 2020. Although first-quarter demand data was lower than expected, the International Energy Agency raised annual average daily oil demand growth by 230,000 barrels, taking into account promising economic forecasts and improvements in some current indicators.
On the 27th, the 16th OPEC and Non-OPEC Declaration of Cooperation Ministers’ Meeting (DoC) was held via remote communication. OPEC+ decided to gradually increase production from May, that is, to reduce production by 250,000 barrels per day in May and in June. It decreased by 350,000 barrels and decreased by 400,000 barrels in July. In other words, by July, the daily crude oil production of OPEC and its production-reduction allies will increase by more than 2 million barrels per day compared with the current daily crude oil production. The 17th ministerial meeting of OPEC and its production-cutting allies will be held remotely via video on June 1, and the 181st OPEC meeting will be held on June 24.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Entering May, international oil prices will face some risks. The first is whether the global epidemic situation can be alleviated. The second is whether OPEC+ will increase crude oil production in a planned way. The third is whether China’s crude oil demand may shrink due to intensive maintenance of refineries. Although the epidemic in Europe and the United States has been controlled, economic growth and blockades have eased, which is expected to stimulate the recovery of oil demand. However, the epidemic situation in India and Japan is not optimistic. As blockades intensify, crude oil demand in Asia will be affected. As global crude oil inventories decline, OPEC+’s large-scale production cuts will enter a narrowing stage, which means that OPEP+ will gradually increase crude oil production, thereby inhibiting oil prices to a certain extent. April to May every year is generally the intensive maintenance period for China’s domestic refineries. During this period, crude oil demand may be affected to a certain extent. In addition, the market also needs to pay attention to the negotiation situation between the United States and Iran. If a reconciliation agreement is reached again between the two countries, it will inevitably suppress oil prices, and vice versa will support oil prices.
In May, from a technical point of view, the crude oil price trend may be basically consistent with April, maintaining the rhythm of box fluctuations. The mainstream operating range of WTI is expected to be 58-68 US dollars/barrel; Brent’s The mainstream operating range is US$62-70/barrel. </p
