According to feedback from cotton traders in Shandong, Henan and other places and ginners in Xinjiang, cotton sales have continued to have a “warm boiling water” market since early May. “Double 29” and above machine-picked cotton and hand-picked cotton in southern Xinjiang have inquired Prices and transactions were even somewhat light, spot prices and pending order sales deteriorated, and “fixed price” transactions rebounded slightly.
On the one hand, domestic cotton futures have started a strong rebound after the “May Day”. The CF2109 contract has continued to break through upwards. Textile enterprises and middlemen are not strong in pursuing higher purchases and have fallen into a trap. In a wait-and-see and waiting state, raw material replenishment is postponed; on the other hand, as of now, more than 70% of domestic tradable cotton resources are in the hands of cotton traders and futures companies, and the proportion of hedging is very high (some companies even take Cross-market, cross-variety hedging or options trading to avoid risks), therefore, under the premise that capital flows are relatively abundant and cotton is basically in good condition, it is very rare for cotton companies to cut prices and rush goods, impacting the spot market; furthermore, the rapid emergence of bulk commodities The prices of crude oil, iron ore, copper and some agricultural products have reached new highs in recent years (the price comparison effect of corn, soybeans, etc. on cotton continues to show), and the confidence of cotton companies and Zheng cotton bulls has rebounded.
Judging from the survey, from May 9th to 10th, the quotations for the weight of cotton picked by “double 28” machines in Jiangsu, Shandong and other inland warehouses were concentrated at 16350-16500 yuan/ton ( Level 31 (there are some differences due to different specific quality indicators and warehouses); while the “Double 28” machine-picked cotton in Aksu, Kuitun and other Xinjiang regulatory warehouses is quoted at 16,000-16,200 yuan/ton, the price difference of Xinjiang cotton of the same quality and grade in Xinjiang is Maintained at 250-350 yuan/ton (equivalent to the freight that the transportation company needs to pay after deducting 500 yuan/ton of direct transportation subsidy).
The supervision warehouses of Aksu, Korla and Urumqi stated that since late April, not only the road shipment volume of Xinjiang cotton has continued to decline, but the railway shipment volume has also declined steadily, and trade Enthusiasm among merchants, futures companies and other companies for moving warehouses has peaked and then declined. First, as the “gold, three, silver and four” industrial chain gradually fades away, Zheng Cotton’s main contract continues to consolidate between 15,500 and 16,000, and the raw material procurement of small and medium-sized cotton spinning enterprises has returned to the state of “buying as you use, eating as you see it”, ” The phenomenon of “waiting for rice to be put into the pot” is less common; secondly, the “boot” of additional quota issuance was implemented at the end of April, which has an impact on the confidence of cotton-using enterprises and cotton traders; thirdly, from a time perspective, it is still early before the delivery month of September. Hedging companies such as traders and futures companies have sufficient time to move warehouses, register and generate warehouse receipts. </p
