According to feedback from cotton trading companies in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Shanghai and other places, the recent COVID-19 epidemic in India has continued to worsen and has encountered rare diseases (mucormycosis infection). 26 local states or territories including Strait State, Haryana, and Odisha have successively implemented varying degrees of blockade measures (approximately 3/4 of India’s regions have restricted the movement of people, closed restaurants and bars, etc.), not only The processing, transportation, and sales of CCI and private cotton companies have been greatly affected, and some ports have also implemented strong measures such as suspension and closure, causing major delays in ship operations; in addition, some countries have implemented restrictions on ships coming from Indian ports Strict quarantine restrictions have led to implementation difficulties for some cotton yarn contracts shipped and shipped in April/May. The two parties can only negotiate to postpone shipment, delivery or cancel the contract (Indian ginners, exporters, etc. regard the epidemic as “force majeure” ”, there is no claim) to avoid suffering greater losses.
Judging from the quotations of international cotton merchants and cotton trading companies, there is still a certain amount of Indian cotton resources for 2020/21 with a May/June shipping date; and M 1-5/ The basis difference of 32 is about 1.5-2.5 cents/pound (the basis difference of CCI resources is slightly higher), which is lower than that of M 1-5/32 Brazilian cotton. The basis difference is 5.5-6.5 cents/pound. The seller can be said to be full of sincerity, but it is common in the industry It is believed that the epidemic in India has been underestimated (the chief scientist of the World Health Organization has judged that the actual number of infections in India may be 20 to 30 times higher than the reported number), and the Modi government has refused to implement a comprehensive blockade again. Therefore, the peak of the epidemic in India may arrive in May/June. When will The current “turning point” is still difficult to predict. Therefore, although the FOB and CNF quotations of Indian cotton cargo are highly competitive, and the price of Indian cotton yarn has also fallen sharply, buyers including China, Vietnam and other buyers are very cautious in signing contracts and purchasing or suspending inquiries. When pricing and placing orders, the main concern is that the contract cannot be executed, which will have an impact on the company’s order arrangement, production, and delivery.
A medium-sized cotton import company in Qingdao said that due to the expectation of a sharp decline in the quantity of Indian cotton shipped in May/June/July; coupled with the additional issuance of 700,000 yuan by the state, The cotton import quota has been sliding ton, and the price of Zheng cotton CF2109 contract has been rising continuously since early May. Therefore, although the current port inventory continues to be “exploded”, traders are not enthusiastic about reducing the basis, selling off bonded goods, and clearing Indian cotton. Not high, and discounts for old customers and large orders have also declined. On May 11-12, the price of Indian cotton M 1-5/32 for customs clearance at Qingdao Port was 15,700-16,000 yuan/ton, which was 100-200 yuan/ton higher than last weekend. </p
