According to the latest report from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor, India’s cotton planting area in 2021/22 will be 12.9 million hectares, a year-on-year decrease of 1%. This is because some cotton fields are converted to crops with better prices such as rice and soybeans. If monsoon rains are normal, India’s cotton yield is expected to increase by 5%, and output is expected to increase by 4% to 6.42 million tons.
The report estimates that India’s cotton consumption in 2021/22 will be 5.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and exports will be 1.3 million tons. If the new cotton harvest is bumper again this year, India’s cotton export supply will be very abundant next year. Coupled with the slow recovery of retail demand, Indian cotton prices are expected to continue to be under pressure, so Indian cotton export demand will recover next year. According to statistics from the Indian Ministry of Commerce, from August 2020 to March 2021, India exported a total of 924,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year increase of 76%.
From the current point of view, due to the out-of-control COVID-19 epidemic, many states in central and southern India have implemented blockades and curfews. Cotton yarn production has been obviously affected, and the hindered sales of yarn inventory will lead to inventory Rising, 30-count combed yarn fell 8% in April. Lockdown measures are expected to continue to impact textile production in May. At the same time, the epidemic will also cause migrant workers to return to rural areas, but the situation will not be as serious as last year. Currently, about 80% of retail stores in India are closed.
According to statistics from the Cotton Corporation of India, as of April 26, India’s 2020/21 cotton market volume has reached 5.7 million tons, accounting for 90% of the expected output. Government agencies have not sold it. There are still about 800,000 tons in inventory, most of which are low-grade cotton. As of April 26, the cumulative volume of new cotton purchased by India’s MSP reached 1.564 million tons.
According to the latest forecast of the Indian Cotton Association, India’s cotton supply from October 2020 to April 2021 will be 7.98 million tons, of which 5.72 million tons of new cotton will be on the market and 13.6 million tons will be imported. million tons, with opening inventory of 2.125 million tons. During the same period, India’s cotton consumption was 3.23 million tons, exports as of April 30 were 850,000 tons, and inventory was 3.9 million tons, including 1.615 million tons of textile mill industrial stocks and 2.284 million tons of other stocks.
It is reported that states such as Punjab and Haryana are expected to start sowing cotton soon, while other states will start sowing next month. </p
