After the “May Day”, the Zheng cotton market continued to rebound strongly. The CF2109 contract price rose from 15,530 yuan/ton to 16,355 yuan/ton. Especially on May 12, the volume increased and positions increased significantly, which once formed a hot short squeeze. situation. Although the downstream cotton yarn production and sales situation has further recovered, and orders from some countries in Europe, the United States and Southeast Asia have accelerated, such a large increase in Zheng Cotton’s volume will inevitably play a role in encouraging the entire cotton textile industry chain. The author believes that although Zheng cotton broke through 16,300 yuan/ton, it failed to test 16,500 yuan/ton again and needs to pull back to gain momentum. The long and short sides will continue to play around 16,000 yuan/ton, waiting for clear direction guidance.
Why did Zheng Mian’s current rebound “come as fast as it came”? The author summarizes the following three points: First, the strong winds, dust, and heavy rains in the Xinjiang cotton area come and go in the same way as bull funds, and the market rise is also “short, flat, and fast”. Obviously, the weather in the Xinjiang cotton area has become one of the key factors for capital speculation. However, according to the survey, after the current sandstorm, farmers are actively replanting and trying their best to minimize losses; secondly, although the internal and external markets of commodities have reached record highs, relevant national departments have introduced response and preventive measures to cool down commodity futures. The rebound momentum of Zheng Cotton has been curbed; third, the central bank’s monetary policy has shifted from loose and moderately loose to steady or even phased tightening. On May 11, the central bank released the “China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the First Quarter of 2021”, which showed that the People’s Bank of China will continue to follow the requirements of a prudent monetary policy that is flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, adhere to the principle of “stability first”, and control the money supply gate. , make good cross-cyclical liquidity arrangements, carry out open market operations accurately, and maintain reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. </p
