In late April 2021, the China National Textile and Apparel Industry Federation conducted a survey on the current business situation of textile enterprise managers. After cleaning, sorting, and analyzing the effective data, the following observations were made.
01 The overall prosperity is improving
According to calculations, the prosperity index of my country’s textile industry in the first quarter was 57.1 , the development of the industry is stable and good, and it is in the development and growth range, laying a good start for the industry.
02 Production is stable and orderly
According to estimates, in 2021 The production index of the textile industry in the first quarter was 56.0, and production was in the expansion range. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, the industrial added value of my country’s textile industry increased by 20.3% year-on-year, an increase of 36.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The output of major textile products increased at varying rates. Among them, chemical fiber increased by 27.1% year-on-year; yarn increased by 32.1% year-on-year; cloth increased by 12.5% year-on-year; and clothing increased by 24.1% year-on-year.
On the one hand, after the textile industry actively responded to and eliminated the impact of the epidemic last year, the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain have gradually recovered, and production has been smoothly connected. According to the survey, 46.4% of textile companies stated that their business turnover has returned to pre-epidemic levels, and large companies have strong self-recovery capabilities. 67.3% of large companies have recovered, 44.8% of medium-sized companies have recovered, and only 32.8% Small businesses have recovered; on the other hand, the consumer market has gradually recovered, and new business models have accelerated the activation of the consumer market and stimulated production expansion. According to a survey, the turnover of 63.6% of clothing and apparel companies has returned to pre-epidemic levels.
03 Increased consumption vitality
According to estimates, in the first quarter of 2021 The new order index of my country’s textile industry is 61.7, consumption is picking up, and market demand is in the growth range. Sales in the domestic online and offline consumer markets are good. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in my country were 340.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.2%.
On the one hand, the market circulation was blocked last year and the base was low, resulting in a high growth rate this year; on the other hand, the increase in residents’ income has driven the recovery of the consumer market. In the first quarter of this year, the per capita disposable income of national residents reached 9,730 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%. The growth in income drove consumer spending. In the first quarter, the national per capita clothing consumption expenditure was 437 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%. At the same time, online channel consumption has grown significantly. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, my country’s online clothing retail sales increased by 39.6% year-on-year. In March 2021, the sales of women’s clothing, men’s clothing, children’s clothing and home textiles on Tmall and Taobao platforms were 31.63 billion yuan, 12.06 billion yuan, 5.03 billion yuan and 3.09 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 27.2%, 50.6%, 18.8% and 36.4% respectively. International market orders continued the growth trend of the previous year. According to estimates, in the first quarter of 2021, the international order index of my country’s textile industry was 55.7, and orders are currently sufficient. According to Chinese customs data, from January to April 2021, my country’s textile and clothing exports were US$88.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.8%, of which textile exports were US$43.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.0%; clothing exports were US$44.41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 51.7%.
04 Raw material prices rise
According to estimates, in the first quarter of 2021 The raw material purchase price index of my country’s textile industry is 87.4, continuing the rising trend of raw material prices from the previous year, putting pressure on the operations of textile enterprises.
According to market tracking data, by March 2021, domestic cotton prices had risen to 15,947.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.8% from the end of 2020; The price of viscose staple fiber rose to 15,521.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 47% from the end of 2020; the price of polyester staple fiber rose to 7,202.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 27% from the end of 2020. On the one hand, the reduction in cotton planting intentions has raised cotton prices. Affected by factors such as high labor and investment, low returns, slow implementation of cotton subsidy policies in the mainland, and general increases in agricultural inputs and fertilizer prices, land prices, and water charges, domestic cotton planting intentions have declined this year. In March 2021, the China Cotton Association conducted a national cotton planting intention survey among relevant farmers in 12 provinces, cities and Xinjiang Autonomous Region across the country. The survey results showed that the national cotton planting intention area was 43.6755 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of 4.99%. In particular, mainland cotton farmers are not very motivated, and their intention to plant cotton continues to decline significantly. The overall expectation is that domestic cotton supply will shrink, causing cotton market prices to rise rapidly. On the other hand, the rapid rise in upstream costs has pushed up the prices of chemical fiber products. Since this year, the prices of upstream raw materials for chemical fiber products have risen rapidly. Taking viscose fiber as an example, the price of dissolving pulp, its main raw material, has continued to rise from 5,300 yuan/ton in September 2020 to 7,883 yuan/ton in March 2021, an increase of 48.7%; the price of PTA, the main raw material of polyester staple fiber, has also increased from 5,300 yuan/ton in September 2020 to 7,883 yuan/ton in March 2021. The price at the beginning of the year rose from 3,900 yuan/ton to 4,385 yuan/ton in March, an increase of more than 12%.
In addition, in the recovery process of the industrial chain, the recovery of consumption drives production. In the industrial chain, the downstream receives priorityThe market recovers and gradually feeds back to the upstream. When orders continue to grow, upstream supply will be tight, leading to an increase in raw material prices.
05 Industry investment is cautious
In the first quarter of 2021, my country’s textile industry The new fixed investment in the industry is relatively cautious. According to the survey, 52.0% of textile companies said that the amount of new fixed asset investment this year has remained the same as the same period last year, while only 29.7% of textile companies said that the amount of new fixed asset investment since this year has increased compared with the same period last year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, fixed asset investment in my country’s textile industry, textile and apparel industry, and chemical fiber industry increased by 18.2%, 17.1%, and 9.5% year-on-year respectively.
Among its new fixed asset investment projects, 53.2% of the enterprises are upgrading and transforming based on the original production capacity, which is the main new addition of the current enterprises. Fixed asset investment projects; only 26.3% of companies built new production capacity. According to corporate feedback, the main factors affecting corporate investment are the market prospects of the industry and corporate benefits. 70.3% of companies said that market prospects are an important factor affecting their investment, and 69.2% of companies said that corporate efficiency is an important factor affecting their investment.
06 Continuous improvement of quality and efficiency
In the first quarter of 2021, my country The profitability of the textile industry has improved significantly. According to the survey, 37.9% of textile companies said that their profits in the first quarter increased compared with the same period last year, and 33.5% of textile companies reported the same profit level as the same period last year. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, 33,000 textile enterprises above designated size across the country achieved operating income of 1,054.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, and a total profit of 43.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.0%. The overall profitability of the industry has improved significantly.
Operation quality continues to improve. In the first quarter, the finished product turnover rate and total asset turnover rate of textile enterprises above designated size nationwide were 12.7 times/year and 1.1 times/year respectively, a year-on-year acceleration of 27.9% and 20.6% respectively; the ratio of three expenses was 7.2%, down from the same period last year. 0.7 percentage points.
07 Sufficient confidence in development
Investigate enterprises based on their own production and operation status and feelings about the market, and made an outlook for the industry in the second quarter of 2021. After compilation, the company is confident about the industry prosperity in the second quarter. According to calculations, the textile industry prosperity index is expected to be 64.5 in the second quarter of 2021, which is 7.4 points higher than the industry prosperity index in the current first quarter. Companies believe that the second quarter will further improve on the basis of the first quarter. Specifically, it is expected that in the second quarter, production will further improve; new orders will be fully replenished and market demand will expand; the growth rate of raw material prices will slow down significantly.
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