Foreword
As vaccinations in European and American countries accelerate, European and American countries begin to gradually unblock, people begin to travel more, and the demand for crude oil gradually increases. This article examines the end-end demand for crude oil in major European and American countries based on various ministries of transportation, highway operating companies, aviation bureaus, or third-party information agencies, and attempts to compare the absolute value of demand at this stage with the normal level before the epidemic in order to speculate. The recovery of crude oil demand in the later period.
We found that land traffic in the United States is close to pre-epidemic levels, and air traffic in the United States still has 35% room for recovery from pre-epidemic levels. The situation in Europe is different and closely related to the speed of vaccination. The common point is that they are gradually getting better. The land traffic volume in the UK is only 5% lower than before the epidemic. The land traffic volume in France, Italy and Spain has dropped by 15-35% compared with 2019. The recovery of air flight volume in Europe is the slowest, with 65% lower than in 2019. %distance.
May to September each year is the traditional peak travel season. With the acceleration of vaccination, we believe that the demand for oil products in Europe and the United States may enter an acceleration stage. Even if it returns to normal levels in the later period, based on China’s situation in the second half of 2020, we believe there will be compensatory consumption in Europe and the United States, which will continue to support oil prices.
As the pace of vaccination in European and American countries accelerates, European and American countries begin to gradually unblock, people begin to travel more, and the demand for crude oil begins to gradually increase. This article examines the end-end demand for crude oil in major European and American countries based on various ministries of transportation, highway operating companies, aviation bureaus, or third-party information agencies, and attempts to compare the absolute value of demand at this stage with the normal level before the epidemic in order to speculate. The recovery of crude oil demand in the later period.
01 U.S. terminal consumption continues to rebound
The United States is the world’s largest crude oil consumer in 2019 The average daily demand for crude oil in the United States is 19.4 million barrels per day (BP yearbook data). Among them, transportation oil accounts for 66%, industrial oil accounts for 28%, civil oil accounts for 3%, commercial oil accounts for 2%, and electricity oil consumption is less than 1% (2020 EIA data).
We have seen significant increases in transportation volume, which accounts for the largest proportion of U.S. crude oil consumption. Climbing, truck demand and mileage in the United States have exceeded the same period in 2019, and the high-speed mileage of passenger vehicles in the United States has dropped by less than 10% compared with the same period in 2019. Demand for driving navigation in the top ten U.S. cities tracked by Apple has hit a new high since the epidemic. The number of air flights in the United States has reached a new high since the epidemic, with a 35% gap compared with 2019.
02 Europe has begun to recover, but there is still a lot of room for recovery
Europe also has a strong presence in the global crude oil market Occupying a very important proportion, the average daily crude oil consumption in the entire European region in 2019 was 14.9 million barrels per day. Among them, the countries with larger consumption include the United Kingdom – 1.545 million barrels per day, Germany – 2.281 million barrels per day, and France – 1.53 million barrels per day. Barrels/day, Italy – 1.218 million barrels/day, Spain – 1.298 million barrels/day. Looking at the oil consumption structure, the oil product with the largest proportion of consumption in Europe is diesel, accounting for 44%, followed by gasoline at 14%, and jet fuel at 11%.
The UK has the largest number of vaccinated people among European countries. As of May 9, the proportion of the UK population that has received at least one dose of vaccine has reached 52.3% . The sales of gasoline and diesel in the UK almost reached pre-epidemic levels in the week of early May. The travel volume of British cars, light commercial vehicles and other means of transportation also hit a new high since 2021, and is gradually approaching the high in October 2020. point.
The pace of vaccination in Germany is slower than that in the UK. As of May 9, 32.6% of the population in Germany had received at least one dose. There is less data on terminal consumption in Germany. We only found that Germany’s truck toll mileage index hit a new high since 2017; this data is similar to the truck demand index in the United States. The recovery of industrial production and the increase in express business volume have boosted truck traffic. .
According to data from highway kilometers management company Atlantia, in the week ending May 5, traffic volumes in Italy, France, and Spain have improved significantly month-on-month and year-on-year. Traffic volume in each country decreased by 15.8%, 25.5% and 35.2% respectively compared with 2019.
The demand for driving navigation in major European capitals also hit a new high during the year, and there is still room to reach the high point when the epidemic eased in mid-2020.
European shipping volume The recovery is currently the slowest. As of the week of May 5, there was still a 64.8% decline compared with 2019.
03 Europe and the United States may be about to enter a stage of accelerated demand
Through the tracking and interpretation of various terminal data , we can find that U.S. land traffic is close to pre-epidemic levels, and U.S. air traffic still has 35% room for recovery from pre-epidemic levels. The situation in Europe is different and closely related to the speed of vaccination. The common point is that they are gradually getting better. There is only a 5% gap in land traffic in the UK compared with before the epidemic. Road traffic in France, Italy and Spain has dropped by 15-35% compared with 2019. Air flight volume in Europe has been the slowest to recover, still 65% lower than in 2019. distance.
May to September is the traditional peak travel season. As vaccination speeds up, we believe that demand for oil products in Europe and the United States may accelerate its recovery. </p
