According to statistics, from March 2020 to February 2021, Australia exported a total of 800,300 bales of cotton (of which 99,300 bales of cotton were exported in February, significantly higher than the annual average); China is still the largest export market for Australian cotton. The proportion reached 48%; followed by Vietnam at 19% and Indonesia at 12%.
It is worth noting that China only imported 13,800 bales of Australian cotton in February, accounting for 13.9% of its exports that month, which is significantly lower than the proportion of China’s imports this year; according to cotton imports from Qingdao, Zhangjiagang and other places Traders reported that in March and April, Chinese cotton spinning mills and traders did not make much progress in inquiries and contract purchases of Australian cotton in 2019 and 2020. The proportion of Australian cotton exports in that month is expected to be less than 20% or even 15%. An import company in Zhangjiagang said that the reason for the sudden drop in Australian cotton exports to China is the continued tension between China and Australia, the high prices of Australian cotton cargoes and port spot prices, the strong substitutability of Brazilian cotton and US cotton for Australian cotton, and the cotton within the 1% tariff. Import quotas are insufficient.
In this case, which domestic buyers are still purchasing and digesting Australian cotton? According to the author’s investigation, there are the following categories:
First, a few large and medium-sized textile and clothing companies have stable European and American customers, and their orders are mainly for high-end and high value-added products, which require stable quality and timely delivery of orders (textile Most enterprises have their own import quotas for customs clearance); secondly, the contracts issued by some European, American and Japanese brand buyers and retailers clearly stipulate the use of Australian cotton (or American cotton) as raw materials or the proportion of Australian cotton in the cotton distribution. This type of customized orders The general price is on the high side; third, some processing trade enterprises and enterprises in port export processing zones (enjoying the tax-free policy) mostly “fast in and quick out”; fourth, a very small number of traders purchase at relatively low prices in ICE, stocking up and selling at the same time.
Although the current quantity of Australian cotton cleared at the port is relatively small (mainly 2019 and 2020 cotton), and as the Australian cotton harvest accelerates, the base price of Australian cotton gradually weakens, and the quotation of Australian cotton for the June/October shipping date There has been a significant increase, but considering that it will take some time to receive the 700,000 tons of cotton import quota with sliding quasi-tariff, it will be difficult for Australian cotton to export to the Chinese market in the first half of 2021.
From the perspective of quotations, the net weight quotations of Qingdao Port customs clearance Australian cotton SM 1-5/32 from May 18 to 19 were concentrated at 17,900-18,000 yuan/ton (the quantity is small), while the US cotton 31- The quotations of 3 37, 21-2 37/38 are 16900-17000 yuan/ton and 17200-17300 yuan/ton respectively. The quotation of Australian cotton is 600-800 yuan/ton higher than that of US cotton of the same quality; it is higher than the 21-level inland warehouse. “Double 29” Xinjiang cotton is 700-1,000 yuan/ton. </p
