This week (5.13-5.19), the average price of WTI this week was 64.85 yuan/barrel, a decrease of US$0.03/barrel, or 0.05%, from the previous week; The average price of Lrent this week was US$68.12/barrel, down US$0.12/barrel from the previous week, or 0.18%. The main force of Shanghai crude oil futures was switched from the SC2106 contract to the SC2107 contract. The average price during the week was 426.16 yuan/barrel, an increase of 2.32 yuan/barrel from the previous week, or an increase of 0.55%.
In terms of futures
This week (5.13-5.19), international crude oil futures prices showed volatility In a downward trend, the average prices of U.S. and Burundi oil fell compared with last week. During the week, the increase in COVID-19 cases in Asia has fueled demand concerns. In addition, if the United States lifts sanctions on Iran, the latter may increase oil shipments, thereby increasing global crude oil supply and suppressing further increases in oil prices. In the United States, U.S. energy companies increased the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the third consecutive week as rising oil prices prompted some drillers to resume well production. Heavy rains this week caused flooding in eastern Texas and Arizona, and four refineries in the U.S. Gulf region slowed down production. In addition, the EIA said that U.S. crude oil inventories increased in the past week, and oil prices fell sharply. On the other hand, U.S. oil pipelines have been restored, but supply shortages at U.S. gas stations are still severe. In addition, the rise in major global stock markets and the fall in the dollar exchange rate have supported the rebound of crude oil. In addition, demand growth in Europe is optimistic, and more states in the United States are beginning to relax blockades. .
Technical level: As of the 19th, WTI closed at $63.36/barrel, down $2.72/barrel or 4.12% from the 12th; for the week as of the 19th , the weekly average price of WTI was US$64.86/barrel, down US$0.32/barrel or 0.48% from the week of the 12th. From a morphological point of view, the KDJ indicator line opens downward near the central axis, indicating that oil prices have a downward trend; the MACD indicator line opens in double lines, and the green downward kinetic energy column increases, indicating that the downward pressure on oil prices has increased.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Spot aspects
This week (5.13-5.19), the spot valuation of Middle East benchmark crude oil rose, and Russia’s ESPO crude oil trading was active, with premiums hitting a five-month high. Russia’s Surgutneftegaz Company sold three cargoes of ESPO Blend crude oil through the first spot tender issued this month, and the buyer was Mercuria. The loading dates of these three cargoes are June 30-July 5, July 2-7 and July 5-12 respectively, and the selling price is approximately US$3.20-3.30 per barrel premium in Dubai. The premium hit its highest level since December last year. Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports fell to a nine-month low in March, official data showed, the lowest level since June 2020, as the kingdom’s crude output fell slightly that month. According to official data, Saudi Arabia exported 5.427 million barrels/day of crude oil in March, a decrease of 198,000 barrels/day or 3.5% from February exports; Saudi Arabia produced 8.138 million barrels/day of crude oil in March, slightly lower than 8.147 million barrels/day in February. daily production level. Preliminary data released by South Korea showed that South Korea’s crude oil imports increased by 13.90% month-on-month to 11.174 million tons or approximately 81.91 million barrels in April, reflecting the recovery of domestic transportation fuel demand after South Korea launched a national vaccination program in the first quarter of this year. Crude oil imports in April fell 0.40% from 82.28 million barrels in the same period last year, but were the highest since December last year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude oil production from the seven major shale formations in the United States is expected to climb by 26,000 barrels per day in June to 7.73 million barrels per day, the first increase in three months.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
In terms of supply and demand
This week (5.13-5.19), the supply and demand news is mixed. On the supply side, OPEC+ gradually increased production after entering May, and the easing of the Iranian nuclear issue also led to market expectations that Iranian crude oil supply will gradually resume. In addition, the rapid escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli situation and the resulting supply-side concerns have become one of the main factors affecting oil prices in the near future. On the demand side, vaccinations are progressing smoothly in the United States and parts of Europe. Considering the decline in COVID-19 infections, the continued increase in vaccinations, and the current reopening of most parts of the European continent, economic recovery will promote the recovery of energy demand.
Inventory data
The decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories did not have an impact on the crude oil futures market. Although U.S. crude oil processing increased and net imports decreased, U.S. crude oil strategic reserves were put on the market and commercial crude oil inventories increased. U.S. gasoline and distillate demand increased and inventories fell. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that in the week ending May 14, U.S. crude oil inventories totaled 1.116138 billion barrels, a decrease of 581,000 barrels from the previous week; U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 486.011 million barrels, an increase of 1.32 million barrels from the previous week; Total gasoline inventories were 234.226 million barrels, a decrease of 1.96 million barrels from the previous week; distillate inventories were 132.095 million barrels, a decrease of 2.32 million barrels from the previous week. Crude oil inventories are 7.7% lower than the same period last year; 1% lower than the same period in the past five years; gasoline inventories are 8.4% lower than the same period last year; 2% higher than the same period in the past five years; distillate inventories are 16.8% lower than the same period last year and 16.8% lower than the same period in the past five years. 5% lower than the same period last year. U.S. commercial oilTotal inventories fell by 230,000 barrels. The total processing capacity of U.S. refineries averaged 15.116 million barrels per day, an increase of 96,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery operating rate was 86.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous week. Last week, U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.411 million barrels per day, an increase of 923,000 barrels from the previous week, and refined oil imports averaged 283.3 barrels per day, an increase of 146,000 barrels from the previous week. The closely watched crude oil inventory in the Cushing area of Oklahoma, USA, was 45.763 million barrels, a decrease of 142,000 barrels. In the past week, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve amounted to 630.127 million barrels, a decrease of 1.9 million barrels.
Fund positions
Speculators hold positions in Nymex light crude oil futures Net long position decreased by 0.7%. The latest statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Management Commission show that as of the week of May 11, open positions in crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange were 2,444,466 lots, an increase of 24,825 lots. Large speculators held a net long 496,561 lots of crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a decrease of 3,452 lots from the previous week. Among them, 650,118 long lots were held, a decrease of 8,559 lots from the previous week; 153,557 short lots were held, a decrease of 5,107 lots.
Prediction for next week
Jin Lianchuang predicts next week (5.20-5.26), international Oil prices may remain range-bound, and the development of US-Iran negotiations and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may become the main influencing factors on oil price trends. Taking WTI as an example, the mainstream operating range next week is expected to be between 62-66 (average 64) US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month decrease of 0.86 US dollars/barrel or 1.33%.
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