According to feedback from cotton trading companies in Qingdao, Zhangjiagang, Guangzhou and other places, port cotton stocks have continued a slight increase since last week. The number of new bonded cotton entering the warehouse is slightly higher than the number of non-bonded cotton leaving the warehouse. Among them, in April and May The arrival and warehousing growth of Indian cotton in 2019/20 and 2020/21 is relatively obvious, which is higher than that of US cotton, Brazilian cotton, West African cotton and other foreign cotton from other producing areas.
A cotton company in Zhangjiagang said that since Zheng cotton CF2109 continued to fall in mid-May, the port cleared Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton, US cotton and other “point price” sales and basis differences. Transactions continue to pick up, with some small and medium-sized cotton spinning mills and middlemen making timely inquiries and bargain hunting (the 1% cotton import quota is in serious shortage, and it is too early to issue the 700,000-ton sliding quasi-tariff quota). The non-bonded cotton inventory at the port has fluctuated and declined, and the “fixed price” “Cotton shipments were deserted due to high quotations and relatively few resources on shelves.
From the quotations of international cotton merchants and imported cotton companies, the basis difference of cargo, bonded cotton and customs clearance cotton has remained stable since mid-May, and cotton companies are willing to actively adjust the basis difference. Not strong, and with the main ICE futures contract falling below 85 cents/pound and 82 cents/pound, domestic textile companies and traders are optimistic about the June-October shipping date of 2020/21 Brazilian cotton and the May/June shipping date of 2020. Inquiries for US cotton in 2021 are relatively active, but the placement of large and actual orders is more cautious. The US dollar quotations for foreign cotton have gradually fallen into the psychological expectations of cotton-using enterprises for purchasing. On the one hand, the issuance period for the 700,000-ton sliding tax quota has not yet been announced, and there is only an unrestricted trade import quota of 300,000 tons, so there is not much enthusiasm for revealing the quota in advance; on the other hand, due to the epidemic and the retaliatory rebound in consumption, sea freight has risen sharply. , goods have accumulated in some foreign ports, and the difficulty of shipping cotton has increased (slots are extremely tight). Domestic procurement companies are worried that the seller will not be able to ship, arrive at the port, and deliver goods as scheduled, thus affecting cotton allocation, order arrangement, and production; in addition, China, the United States, and It is difficult for China-EU relations to substantially improve in the short term and the domestic epidemic in India is gradually under control. Most yarn mills, weaving and fabric mills, and garment companies have accelerated the resumption of work and production. Therefore, orders returning to the country are very unstable or may flow back to costs, taxes, and Raw materials are lower in Southeast Asian countries. Of course, the risk of wide fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate is also an important factor for Chinese buyers to place cautious orders for spot/forward Brazilian cotton, US cotton, etc. </p
