According to feedback from cotton trading companies in Shandong, Jiangsu and other places, as the Zheng cotton CF2109 contract price once again approaches the key point of 15,500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang cotton spot orders and spot price transactions have also continued to pick up, with fixed-price shipments It is relatively deserted. Some cotton companies have quietly raised the basis of point price resources, and the profit situation of hedging and arbitrage cotton companies has further improved. But overall, the rebound in cotton futures “round tour” market has not stimulated cotton textile mills and middlemen to replenish their stocks at low prices. Procurement is still based on “buying as you use, eating as you see”, and the cotton market is “chasing.” The atmosphere of “short kills and falls” is strong.
On May 25-26, the 2020/21 “Double 28” Xinjiang machine-picked cotton quotation in Henan, Shandong and other inland warehouses was 15,950-16,100 yuan/ton (level 31 ); the “Double 28” machine-picked cotton quotation in the supervision warehouse in Xinjiang is 15,650-15,850 yuan/ton, and the price difference between cotton inside and outside Xinjiang has risen to 300-400 yuan/ton, mainly affected by the continued slight increase in Xinjiang cotton highway shipping prices in mid-May.
Supervisory warehouses in Bachu, Aksu and other places reported that in the past week or so, the volume of lint cotton shipped out of warehouses by truck has increased significantly compared with early May, and the shippers are mainly cotton textile mills in the mainland. Mainly, supplemented by cotton traders. On the one hand, the CF2109 contract of Zheng cotton has recently broken through downwards. Small and medium-sized textile enterprises with the need to replenish their stocks have purchased cotton from Xinjiang warehouses at a timely price. Under the premise of tight supply of raw materials and even “waiting for rice to be cooked”, most of them adopt road shipping; On the other hand, since late April, the number of empty boxcars allocated by the Ukraine Railway Bureau for cotton transportation has been significantly reduced compared with February/March/April (due to the rapid increase in energy, black series and other bulk commodities, Xinjiang resources must be increased out of Xinjiang), transportation The phenomenon of “iron to public” is increasing.
Some cotton-related companies judge that the short-term constraints on cotton-using companies to replenish their stocks at bargain hunting can be summarized as follows: First, the epidemic situation in major textile countries in Southeast Asia such as India is gradually under control; The probability of orders returning from Europe, the United States, Japan and other countries is increasing; in addition, the domestic textile and apparel domestic sales market has entered the off-season, and there is a “backlog” of orders, and cotton spinning mills lack large and stable orders;
Second, the RMB continues to appreciate significantly, and the import cost of cotton yarn has dropped significantly. On May 25, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar rose sharply, standing strongly above the 6.40 mark, reaching a maximum of 6.3920, a new high in the past three years;
The third is the domestic market in 2020/21 The cotton supply is very sufficient, and the 700,000-ton sliding quasi-tariff cotton import quota is about to be issued, which can be said to be a “timely help” for some export-oriented and contract processing companies. Doubts about the “structural” contradictions in cotton have also been eliminated. </p
