International crude oil prices have been rising since this year, supported by multiple favorable factors. The demand side provides the main driving force, with the global economic recovery accelerating, demand continuing to improve and major institutions raising price forecasts. The adjustment in crude oil preference has also been a positive boost for PTA. From the perspective of PTA supply and demand, the supply and demand pattern in June is still destocking. The tight spot circulation is still supportive of the market. However, the current improvement in PTA processing fees and the concentration of polyester maintenance and terminal textiles Off-season dampens demand. Short-term PTA range adjustment is expected.
Table 1 Recent PTA device maintenance list
Source:LongzhongInformation
Internationaloilpricesaremixed,butthegeneraltrendisthatU.S.commercialcrudeoilinventoriesarestillonthedecline,internationaloilpricesarerising,andcostsupportistemporarilystable.Fromtheperspectiveofsupplyanddemand,Sanfangxiang’s 1.2 million tons were shut down for maintenance, and Yangzi Petrochemical’s 650,000 tons unit was restarted. The supply volume declined, and the downstream polyester load was generally stable, supported by weak demand during the off-season for terminal textiles. Therefore, the extent of supply and demand destocking weakened, and the market lacked substantial positive stimulation, and PTA prices fluctuated and fell.
, Huahong, etc. once again postponed their equipment maintenance plans, and some equipment restarted during the week. The polyester output data increased slightly, so the polyester output and load showed a narrow increase.
Table 2 Estimated PTA supply and demand balance sheet in June 2021 (unit: 10,000 tons)
Source: Longzhong Information
PTA Day Degree balance and expectations
Source: Longzhong Information
Crude oil demand is expected to continue to strengthen in the near future. The United States is ushering in the summer travel peak, and gasoline consumption has basically returned to pre-epidemic levels. Judging from the forecasts of IEA and OPEC, they are also unanimously optimistic about the crude oil demand in the future, especially the outlook for the second half of the year is positive. The general optimism among major institutions has also boosted market confidence in oil prices. It is a high probability event that oil prices will remain high and strong. Cost support is good.
Overall, the PTA supply side is facing increasing expectations at this stage. The textile market is off-season and demand is weak. In the future, supply and demand may show a slight accumulation of inventory. However, spot liquidity is still tight and processing fees are compressed, which supports the market mentality. It is expected that PTA prices will fluctuate and adjust weakly in the short term.
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