As Iran’s nuclear negotiations resumed, Iranian hardliner Ebrahim Raisi won the country’s 13th presidential election. Some analysts, including Sara Vakhshouri, president of consulting firm SVB Energy International, said the election of a conservative cleric as Iran’s president could hinder the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran’s energy exports.
“The election of hardliners has delayed expectations of a rapid return of Iranian oil.” Vakhshouri said.
On the 19th local time, Iran’s Ministry of Interior announced that Judicial Director Ibrahim Raisi won Iran’s 13th presidential election with 61.95% of the vote.
Lehi, who will succeed President Rouhani in August this year, is 60 years old, an Iranian conservative and a religious cleric. He is considered wary of rapprochement with the United States. Leahy ran for president in 2017 but ultimately lost to Rouhani. He has said that if elected, he will establish a strong government and safeguard the comprehensive agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue.
World powers including the United States, the European Union and Russia are trying to revive a 2015 deal that limited Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for lifting sanctions on the country. . Diplomats said on Sunday they had suspended the sixth round of negotiations, but major differences remained over how to revive the Iran nuclear deal. In 2018, then-President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the agreement.
Iranian oil may not return until the end of the year
With the major economic Oil prices have soared to nearly US$75 per barrel this month as the country relaxes anti-epidemic restrictions and delays in Iran’s nuclear negotiations. Vakhshouri said at an energy forum recently that traders now believe that Iranian exports will not return until the end of this year.
Given that demand will exceed supply by the end of this year by 1.5 million barrels, Iranian crude may be easily absorbed by the market, she said . OPEC+ production cuts and U.S. shale oil companies prioritizing generating cash for shareholders rather than drilling new wells have also limited production growth.
Earlier in 2021, oil prices were under pressure due to concerns that a nuclear deal was imminent and Iranian oil would soon flood the market. Since Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, Iran’s oil exports have dropped from about 2 million barrels per day to almost zero.
The Iran nuclear agreement is more like a “long-term hope”
Robin Mills, chief executive of Dubai-based consultancy Qamar Energy, said a phased restoration of Iran’s oil supplies is only possible if a deal is reached. He said the United States would not ease sanctions until it was convinced Iran was complying with the new deal.
Mills said a deal that would lead to a quick end to sanctions “has always been more of a long-term hope, and now even more so with Leahy’s election.” Still, The analyst also pointed out that Leahy may also “hope that a deal can be reached before he takes office so that he can benefit from improving economic conditions.”
Previous media reports stated that the United States hopes to reach a new Iran nuclear agreement with Iran during the “window period” before Rouhani steps down, so as to avoid the implementation of tough measures after Leahy comes to power. policy, rejecting the new Iran nuclear deal.
However, Vakhshouri pointed out that even if the nuclear deal is reached again, American and European companies are unlikely to invest in Iran’s oil industry. The new government will be inclined to continue selling oil to China in exchange for investment. </p
