Last week, Zheng cotton futures had “four consecutive negative days”. The CF2109 contract oscillated and dived from a high of 16,160 yuan/ton, breaking several integer marks in a row, and was only one step away from the previous low of 15,300 yuan/ton. The spot market and disk The long-short atmosphere has changed again, and the enthusiasm of some cotton spinning enterprises and middlemen to “price-price” replenishment has obviously rebounded. However, the basis sales and fixed-price prices of Xinjiang cotton and port-cleared cotton are somewhat deserted (some traders took advantage of the decline of Zheng cotton to increase cotton prices). basis).
There are several reasons why Zheng Cotton failed to stand firm and charge upward at 16,000 yuan/ton:
First, the relevant national departments continued to Efforts were made to monitor, regulate and suppress the rise of commodities, but Zheng Cotton was “accidentally injured”. The State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves issued an announcement on June 16 that in accordance with the arrangements of the State Council executive meeting to ensure the supply and stable prices of bulk commodities, it will release copper, aluminum, zinc and other national reserves in batches in the near future; on June 17, the state The National Development and Reform Commission stated in a press conference in June that multiple batches will be released into reserves to promote commodity price reductions. Therefore, the market’s concerns about the rotation of cotton reserves in 2021 have once again heated up; secondly, ICE cotton futures have been dragged down by the sharp decline. Suppressed by the continued rise of the U.S. dollar, rainfall in the Texas cotton area of the United States, and the collapse of corn, soybean and other futures in the Chicago grain market, ICE’s main contract fell from 88.50 cents/pound to 83.37 cents/pound last week. Foreign cotton cargoes, bonded zone US dollars The quotations have been lowered overall; third, there are market rumors that 700,000 tons of cotton import quotas with sliding quasi-tariffs may be issued in the near future. Taking into account the current imports of M 1-1/8 Brazilian cotton and M 1-1/8 US cotton under sliding quasi-tariffs The cost is more than 1,000-1,500 yuan/ton lower than the “Double 28” Xinjiang cotton in the mainland bank. Therefore, once the quota is implemented, the impact on the domestic cotton futures market can be imagined; fourth, since June, domestic cotton textiles and clothing below scale The order-taking and production and sales situation of enterprises is weaker than that in April/May. Not only has the epidemic situation in India and other Southeast Asian countries improved, which has led to the return of orders from Europe and the United States (a surge in sea freight, tight containers and wide fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate have had an unbearable impact on the order-taking of textile and clothing companies Underestimated), and the domestic trade market has entered a period of “non-availability” of orders. Therefore, the raw material replenishment of textile companies has not been concentrated and effectively started, and the support for Zheng Cotton’s supplementary increase is not strong.
As the main force of Zheng cotton returns to the 15,500-16,000 yuan/ton range, the differences between cotton-related companies and speculators have increased. Can bulls and funds effectively hold 15,500? The yuan/ton mark has become the key to this round of market conditions. The author judges that holding on is not a big problem. After all, 15,500 yuan/ton is the “bottom” rather than the “waist”. For bulls, the most important thing is to “hold the hand firmly but also the heart.” From a medium to long-term perspective, Zheng Mian is backed by 155,000 The probability of a yuan/ton rebound is high, but the range of 15,500-16,000 yuan/ton needs repeated adjustments and repeated testing; if there are no major changes in the weather in Xinjiang cotton areas, national cotton control policies, and central bank monetary policies from June to September, the author believes Before the new cotton is launched, the main contract of Zheng cotton can only consolidate within the 15,500-16,500 yuan/ton box. The trend of “high upper limit and lower bottom” is difficult to change. Traders should operate within the range of “sell high and buy low”. </p
