With the popularization of COVID-19 vaccines and the improvement of the global epidemic situation, many European and American countries have relaxed controls and fuel oil demand has increased. Although international crude oil prices have corrected due to expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve, as the global COVID-19 vaccination rate increases, the demand side of crude oil continues to improve.
On the 22nd, the price of Brent crude oil soared, exceeding US$75 per barrel, the highest level since the autumn of 2018. Brent crude oil prices are up about 55% so far this year.
Recently, Jeffrey Currie, head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs It is believed that supply constraints and the rapid rebound of the global economy have laid the foundation for a sharp rise in oil prices. He believes Brent crude oil prices will average $80 per barrel in the third quarter.
“In the short term, we are convinced that crude oil is the most worth buying. It is expected that the average price of Brent (crude oil) in the third quarter will rise to US$80/barrel, and there will be opportunities above $80,” Currie wrote in an email to clients. He also added that global daily crude oil demand may rise to 97 million barrels per day in recent days from 95 million barrels per day a few weeks ago, driven by positive signals in Europe and India.
Oil prices are once again one step away from the arrival of the “8th Era”. So the oil price is about to rise to 80 US dollars/barrel, can polyester raw materials rise again?
Since 2021, PTA has shown the logic of cost support as a whole, and the price has gradually risen as the price of crude oil has risen. However, since May, the price of crude oil has risen rapidly, and the price of PTA has fluctuated. The situation even saw a sustained price decline in June, and the price trend diverged from that of crude oil.
The direct reason is that the price trend of PX has diverged from the price of crude oil; since the second quarter, with the As overseas production gradually resumes, the supply of PX is relatively sufficient, and the overall market price of PX in May showed a trend of shock and decline. Due to the downward price of PX, although the price of PTA has not increased, the profitability of PTA devices has increased significantly. Since June, the profitability of PTA per ton once exceeded 600 yuan/ton, which is the best profitability level since 2021. On the other hand, poor end market demand is also an important factor dragging down PTA prices. In the later period, there are expectations for maintenance of some downstream polyester units, polyester profits continue to be compressed, inventory pressure is high, and the polyester segment has overall weakened recently. The terminal weaving segment is currently entering the off-season, and orders are generally weak. In the long run, the recovery of overseas orders is still slow. Overall, PTA is expected to see an inventory inflection point starting from June. Social inventory has changed from a large destocking in the early stage to a slight accumulation. Supply and demand have become loose in the short term, and the amount of circulating spot goods has generally increased.
On the other hand, the intrinsic driving force for the rise in crude oil prices is the improvement of supply and demand fundamentals superimposed on the global Inflation has led to high demand and low inventories of refined oil products, which has promoted the steady increase in refinery operating rates. The refinery operating rate in the United States has reached the highest level since the epidemic, and refining units in Europe are also operating at high levels. While the refining unit produces fuel oil such as gasoline and aviation kerosene, it also produces corresponding chemical raw materials. As refinery operating rates increase, the supply of chemical raw materials also gradually improves. However, as the downstream demand of the chemical industry is gradually increasing, the growth rate of demand for chemical raw materials is not as fast as that of refined oil. As a result, the price growth rate of chemical raw materials is lower than the growth rate of crude oil prices. Some chemical products have even seen prices fall due to oversupply. As a result, the price trends of chemical raw materials and crude oil diverge.
Taken together, supply and demand determine product price trends. When PTA takes cost support as its main logic, and PX prices can When transmission is effective, PTA and crude oil price trends are relatively consistent. When the market environment changes, the price trends of PTA and crude oil may diverge. In the short term, crude oil price fluctuations are greatly affected by the demand for refined oil. The price transmission of crude oil to PTA is not smooth, and the price trends of PTA and crude oil will remain divergent.
Boosted by the sharp increase in cost-end crude oil prices, short-term PTA may usher in a new upward trend. However, market participants said that the fundamentals of the polyester industry chain have not improved significantly. Against the background of production capacity being put into production, the price trend of polyester raw materials such as PTA is still facing greater pressure in the later period. In fact, during the production capacity expansion cycle Among them, the supply and demand side of PTA is under great pressure. At the same time, the rise in cost-side oil prices will accelerate the squeeze on production profits. It is expected that PTA will continue to have low production efficiency in the future, which will force more high-cost devices without supporting upstream and downstream industry chains to withdraw from the market. </p
