Last week, affected by the continued rise in international oil prices, the energy and chemical futures varieties strengthened significantly, but the trends of various varieties among sectors showed divergence. Among them, LPG and asphalt futures trends are relatively strong.
“Compared with crude oil, asphalt has been in a weak state this year, mainly due to major problems with its own fundamentals.” Zhaojin Futures analyst Yu Yansen told Futures According to a daily reporter, the operating rate of the asphalt industry has not exceeded last year, and is even lower than the same period in previous years. Demand has not been able to start, and inventories are approaching historical highs in the past eight years.
In Yu Yansen’s view, it is still in the rainy season, the actual demand for asphalt is weak, and it is difficult for stocks to decline before the fourth quarter, so asphalt futures rose strongly last week , which is more affected by the rise in oil prices. The increase in costs drives up the price of asphalt.
In addition, the positive news comes from the market’s interpretation of the country’s crude oil quota reduction for local refining companies. Some institutions believe that the country’s crude oil import quotas for batches 1 and 2 this year have significantly shrunk compared to last year. Combined with the tax increase on diluted asphalt in the early stage, it will cause an increase in raw material prices and a shortage of raw materials for local refining companies, resulting in asphalt in the later period. Production will decline. Then after the peak season comes, asphalt may face a relatively rapid destocking, instead of remaining under high inventory throughout the year as previously expected.
Although asphalt performed extremely strongly last week, it was much stronger than other oil products. However, some insiders believe that the asphalt market is obviously overpriced, and the later trend may be weaker than that of other oil products.
In the past week, as the market gradually realized the possible long-term shortage of “diluted asphalt”, it raised concerns about the supply of forward asphalt refineries, and the market’s bullish sentiment intensified. However, according to Huang Liunan, a futures analyst at Guotai Junan, the short-term trading perspective should not focus too much on the forward market. “The current spot discount in Shandong for the 2109 contract, the main asphalt futures contract, has exceeded 300 yuan/ton, the risk-free arbitrage window has been greatly opened, and the price difference between asphalt and high- and low-sulfur fuel oil is also approaching the high level this year, and the valuation has On the high side.”
“From a supply and demand perspective, the current absolute inventory is still at a historical high, and it is unlikely that there will be a shortage in the next two months. Therefore, asphalt profit recovery is The driving force is not strong.” Huang Liunan said that due to the stagnation of domestic credit expansion this year and the reduction of infrastructure projects, there may not be counter-seasonal expansion on the demand side in the next two months, and the overpriced premium in the past two days may gradually give up in the future. . “Taking into account the certainty that the center of gravity of oil prices will shift upward in the second half of the year, it is still more likely that asphalt prices will challenge 4,000 yuan/ton in the future, but the short-term strong deviation from oil prices is difficult to sustain.”
It is worth noting that last week, LPG futures prices reached new highs. Jin Xiao, director of commodity research at Orient Securities Futures Derivatives Research Institute, told the Futures Daily reporter that on the one hand, benefiting from the continued rise in oil prices, the LPG futures price center has been raised accordingly. On the other hand, overseas LPG swap prices have been running wildly, stimulated by news of tightening exports from Saudi Arabia. “The upcoming Saudi CP propane price in July is expected to exceed US$620/ton, a sharp increase of nearly US$100/ton from last month. The expectation of increased import costs in the future is an important driver of the recent upward trend in domestic futures prices.”
LPG consumption itself has certain seasonality. As the main contracts gradually shift from the off-season to the peak season, the market has expectations for the peak season, and optimism dominates the market.
From Jin Xiao’s perspective, LPG’s fundamentals are expected to be good. Judging from the latest weather forecasts, this autumn and winter are likely to be neutral. There is a slightly over 50% probability of turning into La Niña around December. In the future, fuel consumption will see a normal seasonal rebound as the weather turns colder. In terms of demand for chemical raw materials, four new PDH units are expected to be put into operation in China this year. In addition, there are also some new ethylene cracking units that can flexibly switch raw materials, which can absorb the increase in domestic LPG gas produced by the expansion of front-end refining capacity in the future. “In general, domestic demand is growing faster than supply. This demand gap will correspond to the increase in domestic imported gas and is an important part of the increase in global demand. The price of LPG in Asia is supported, which also means domestically. Compared with the same period last year, import costs are easier to rise than to fall.”
However, the current pattern of domestic and international differentiation of LPG fundamentals will continue in the short term. According to Li Zuzhi, an analyst at SDIC Essence Futures, the domestic market has been affected by the Guangzhou epidemic and the increasing pressure on domestically produced gas exports. Prices have shown signs of weakness, and terminal sales pressure has continued to increase. However, in the international market, U.S. inventories remain low, while expectations for a short-term increase in production in the Middle East are still unclear. Iran, the main potential supply increase during the year, has also been delayed due to the slowdown in negotiations. The driving force behind the tight balance in the international market is still exist. “There is no sign of an inflection point in the market structure, and at the same time, against the background of strong crude oil, there is still some room for growth in the market.”
“From a half-year time perspective, we feel that LPG futures prices are above There is still room but the process may be bumpy.” Jin Xiao believes that since this round of overseas price increases is event-driven, the current LPG futures price is relatively high, and in the short term, we must guard against the risk of a correction caused by Saudi Arabia’s news reversing the supply margin. The expectation of a month-on-month improvement in future supply and demand fundamentals may be the main trading logic of the market until the first half of the peak season.
Industry insiders suggest that investors pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting to be held next week. This is the current possibilityThe current focus of the market. If the increase in production exceeds expectations, the possibility of a correction in oil prices still exists, which will also affect the price trend of other products in the energy sector to a certain extent. </p
