Recently, the energy and chemical sector has repeatedly staged a bull boom, with various products rising continuously, and the commodity index also rushing upward. Among the many varieties, PTA has directly entered our field of vision with its overbearing upward momentum. The increase once exceeded 4% on the 25th. Behind the strong trend of PTA, what is the logic driving it? In the future, can PTA prices continue to improve?
The Overbearing President is online again: 88.7 billion
PTA’s turnover ranked second for the first time
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One burst of momentum, then another failure, three times… a successful breakthrough! After two unsuccessful attempts to hit 5,000 points, PTA not only successfully occupied this point on the 25th, but also rose by more than 200 points during the session, surpassing the domestic futures market.
It is also worth mentioning that the turnover of PTA has increased abnormally, ranking second for the first time. Only this rebar, exceeding 88.7 billion, and broke through the 5,200 yuan mark in one fell swoop, falling slightly in late trading. As of the close, PTA’s main stock rose 3.31% to 5,180 yuan.
Who is the polyester chain headed by PTA
The trigger for the recent strong outbreak?
Industry insiders believe that the recent gains in PTA fundamentals are mainly reflected in the cost side and supply side.
From a cost perspective, international oil prices have fluctuated and risen recently, with Brent oil prices standing at US$75/barrel. At the same time, there are many accidents in PX-end devices. I heard that the load of PX devices of a major manufacturer has been reduced to 50% for some reason. We are paying attention to when it will return to normal. At the same time, the delivery time of new devices may be postponed to the end of July. The PX-NAP price difference has continued to rise recently and is currently at US$250/ton. It is not ruled out that it will widen to US$280/ton in the future. Overall, PTA’s cost-end performance was relatively strong due to supply surprises of crude oil and PX itself.
From the supply side, a large factory’s new 3.6 million tons/year PTA device has not been put into production smoothly, and no finished product has yet been produced. And the market predicts that even if the device is mass-produced in July, it is expected to force other devices to undergo maintenance by compressing processing fees. Overall, the current pressure on the supply side is not great. At the same time, July and August in previous years were the most frequent time periods for PTA equipment maintenance, and equipment maintenance can also push up its price in a short period of time. But this year, the PTA market is taking an unusual path and changing its style from previous years. According to relevant research report data, PTA spot processing fees are constantly being squeezed. From February to March, spot processing fees have been fluctuating between 200 and 400, and cash flow may be at a loss. Therefore, the willingness of factories to perform maintenance has increased significantly. Factory inspections have increased significantly since March this year, and the PTA operating rate has also begun to decline (from about 79% in mid-February to 65% in mid-April). At the same time, Hengli’s July contract volume decreased by 50%, and Yisheng Petrochemical’s July contract volume decreased by 30%, reflecting the willingness of major manufacturers to raise prices. PTA processing fees rebounded to around 520 yuan/ton in the early stage. The supply side continues to tighten, and prices are high and strong.
From the perspective of polyester, the overall price is currently stable with no significant changes. The current operating rate of polyester is around 92.8%. Although the inventory pressure of major polyester manufacturers is high, it has been regulated through promotional means since the off-season. The overall resilience is strong, and the market generally has expectations for terminal orders in the peak season in the second half of the year. Short-term polyester production starts Rates are expected to remain high.
Terminal weaving has surprises
The production is at full capacity and orders are booming
Recently, “Currently, the orders for small sweatshirt fleece fabrics are increasing every day.” A merchandiser from a dyeing factory in the Pearl River Delta who is responsible for the docking of Zhongda cloth stores told the editor. It is understood that many printing and dyeing factories in the Pearl River Delta are now receiving orders for autumn and winter fabrics, among which orders for small sweatshirts, real sweatshirts, and rice wool plush are also quite popular. In addition to the hot orders for wool spinning, orders for water jets and air jets in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are also good. Although they cannot be described as hot, it is very gratifying to have a high operating rate during the off-season.
According to relevant data, the production of texturing companies is currently in full swing, and the entire industry is at full capacity. Although texturing profits are now weaker than the previous month, there is still a profit margin of 200-300 yuan/ton, and texturing companies are adding new production capacity. I think most warp knitting companies in the Changxing-Jiaxing area are operating at full capacity. The main reason for the recent increase in the number of orders received by printing and dyeing factories is that the foreign trade market, which originally had relatively small orders, has begun to increase its volume, mainly for autumn and winter fabrics, and the quantities are not small, and there are even large orders of one million meters. This did not happen in May this year. Case. On the one hand, due to the severe overseas epidemic in the first half of the year, most countries were deeply affected, and the demand for textiles weakened. At present, the epidemic situation in many countries is gradually recovering, and clothing buying sentiment has rebounded, leading to an increase in orders. On the other hand, the market in the second half of the year is equivalent to the first half of the year, with greater sales volume and greater demand for autumn and winter clothing.
However, due to the impact of high sea freight and the traditional off-season, the inventory of gray fabrics is high and the products are not shipped smoothly, which leads to a serious occupation of funds. Overall, the enthusiasm for downstream terminal demand is still high, but there is pressure in some links.
Based on the above point of view, in the short term, due to the strong performance of the upstream crude oil market, cost increases and other effects plus…�In response to the expected hype and the continued improvement of the demand side, pta prices have strong upward momentum and will surge in the short term. In the future, it is expected that the market will still be on the strong side. </p
