Recently, the China Chamber of Commerce for Textile Import and Export released data stating that in the first five months of this year, my country’s home textile exports have fully recovered, with export scale reaching a record high, and exports from all major provinces and cities have achieved substantial growth.
The demand in the international home textile market continues to be strong, and the export of our home textile products to major international markets continues to grow, with the highest growth rate in exports to the US market. From January to May, my country’s home textile products exported US$12.62 billion, an increase of 60.4% over the same period last year and an increase of 21.8% over the same period in 2019. The export scale hit a record high for the same period in the past five years. At the same time, the export of home textile products accounted for 11.2% of the total exports of textile and apparel products, 43 percentage points higher than the overall export growth rate of textile and apparel products, effectively stimulating the recovery of overall export growth in the industry.
The temptation of the home textile market is favorable
This year, the number of new texturing machines has reached 1,500!
As the main production raw material in the upstream of home textiles, the texturing market has also ushered in a bright moment since last year. Texturing belongs to the post-spinning part of the upstream polyester filament and is the direct downstream user of polyester filament POY. Last year, the overall profit of DTY was at a relatively high level. In addition, downstream users are optimistic about the market outlook. This year, the growth rate of texturing machines has expanded. As of July this year, it is expected that the number of new texturing machines will include about 1,500 domestic and foreign brands. In the first half of the year, the terminal weaving start-up was relatively stable. Compared with the start-up in March-April 2019, the difference between the higher start-up and the start-up was about 10%. The terminal domestic and foreign trade orders gradually entered the recovery stage.
Polyester sales will become the norm after April
There is limited room for subsequent price cuts and promotions
The growth rate of looms and texturing remained high in the second quarter, but new orders for domestic and foreign trade were still average, and there was no obvious growth beyond expectations. . Although the inventory pressure on gray fabrics has declined year-on-year, the month-on-month pressure has gradually increased. Against the background of general orders, terminal factories have a general willingness to purchase polyester, and the raw material stocking days are only at a low level of 1-2 weeks, resulting in greater pressure on polyester filament factory warehouses. Therefore, the sales strategy of filament factories this year is pulse type. Price reduction promotions to divert inventory pressure. It is understood that in more than two months, periodic promotions have gradually become the norm, from once every half a month at the beginning to once a week. However, due to poor demand performance, market focus and promotional results have gradually declined. Compared with the level in April, the market focus of POY 150D/48F in June has dropped by more than 200 yuan/ton.
Foreign trade orders improved slightly in late June, and attention will be paid to the subsequent improvement. The average operating rate of polyester is still running above 91%, which is at a high level year-on-year. The operating rate of filament yarns remains at a high level year-on-year. With the compression of filament profits, there is limited room for subsequent price reductions and promotions. Therefore, there is a possibility that the operating rate of filament yarns will be compressed in the long term.
The contradiction between polyester supply and demand in the second half of the year is highlighted
It may be difficult to continue last year’s explosive growth in demand during the peak season
According to data, the new production capacity of polyester filament is expected to be 3.55 million tons in the second half of the year. The new production capacity is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. In addition, Korla in Xinjiang and Weifang in Shandong have polyester production. For the filament project, 800,000 tons of new production capacity were added in the first half of the year. A 600,000-ton unit at Hengke was put into operation in August last year, and yarns will be produced gradually until April this year. Overall, the new polyester filament production capacity in 2021 is expected to be 4.95 million tons. The year-on-year growth rate is more than 13%, and terminal consumption is expected to grow at 7%-8% for the whole year, which is lower than the expected growth rate of production capacity. Therefore, the contradiction between supply and demand of polyester filament in the second half of the year will still be prominent.
Judging from previous years, the demand for polyester filament picked up during the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” periods. Despite the epidemic last year Throughout, polyester filament yarns experienced a big rebound in late September and October. Terminal demand exploded, and downstream users purchased in large quantities, driving up the price of polyester filament yarns. However, what is different from last year is that this year, downstream texturing and weaving companies have a general willingness to purchase polyester, and the raw material stocking days are only at a low level of 1-2 weeks. Since May, downstream users have started purchasing autumn and winter orders in advance, and the demand Overdraft in advance, and the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled with the vaccination. At present, the overseas epidemic seems to have a counterattack trend. The terminal field of polyester filament is mostly used in textiles and clothing, with a large proportion of exports. Therefore, the overseas epidemic affects textile and clothing. Export situation, in addition to trade disputes, increased shipping costs, tight supply of containers and many other issues have hindered the export of textiles and clothing. At present, the overall export situation of textiles is good, and the export volume of clothing continues to decline. Taken together, the activities of major e-commerce platforms in September and October promoted demand to a certain extent. However, the peak season may not be able to continue last year’s explosive growth in demand. In the third quarter, polyester filament inventory may decline slightly. If not Supported by other emergencies, inventories will gradually increase in the fourth quarter.
Under the influence of the epidemic, the price of polyester filament bottomed out again and again last year, falling to historical lows. At the end of the year, the price continued to recover due to the boost of costs. However, there is no obvious trend of recovery in terminal demand. Since the second quarter, polyester filament has continued to boost volume with price, and the focus of transactions has continued to decline. It has now reached a relatively low point. At the end of June, the destocking effect of enterprises was obvious. It is expected that polyester filament will first be in a stalemate in the second half of the year, and then rise first and then fall. Prices The high end appears in October and the low end appears at the end of December. </p
