Since the second quarter of last year, international oil prices have begun to slowly recover from historic lows. The oil and gas industry, which suffered a heavy blow at the beginning of last year, continues to recover this year.
In the first quarter of this year, the two major giants in the domestic oil and gas industry-PetroChina (601857.SH) and Sinopec (600028.SH) delivered outstanding results. In the first half of the year The pre-disclosed performance continues this trend, with net profit expected to increase by more than 130 billion yuan year-on-year.
As an important supporting industry for oil and gas, the operating performance of the oil and gas industry continues to grow; the recovery of oil prices and the resilience of the domestic oil and gas market have played a supporting role in the oil and gas industry. .
After successive surges in international oil prices, the international crude oil market has also reached a critical crossroads as it faces uncertain factors such as the easing of production cuts, the unpredictability of the epidemic, and the lifting of the ban on Iranian crude oil.
Net profit from two barrels of oil increased by more than 130 billion
On the evening of July 1, both “Two Barrels of Oil” released their performance growth forecasts for the first half of the year. Compared with the huge losses in 2020, it can be described as a world of ice and fire.
Sinopec expects that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in the first half of this year will be 36.5 billion yuan to 38.5 billion yuan, a significant turnaround from losses to profits in the same period in 2020, an increase of approximately 59.4 billion yuan to 38.5 billion yuan. 61.4 billion yuan, an increase of 16.6% to 23.0% compared with the same period in 2019. In the first half of 2020, Sinopec’s net loss was 22.882 billion yuan.
PetroChina expects that the net profit attributable to the company’s shareholders in the first half of this year will increase by 75 billion yuan to 90 billion yuan year-on-year, achieving a substantial turnaround from losses to profits. In the first half of 2020, PetroChina’s net loss was 29.986 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, PetroChina’s net profit in the first half of this year was approximately 45 billion to 60 billion yuan. Compared with the same period in 2019, PetroChina’s expected performance growth this year is approximately 60%-110%.
Based on this calculation, the net profit of “Two Barrels of Oil” in the first half of this year is expected to reach 81.5 billion yuan to 98.5 billion yuan, with the maximum daily net profit exceeding 500 million yuan; year-on-year net profit growth 134.4 billion yuan to 151.4 billion yuan.
PetroChina pointed out in the announcement that the company’s pre-profit performance was mainly due to the recovery of the macro economy and the substantial increase in international oil and gas demand. The company seized the opportunity to optimize the industrial chain and vigorously achieve quality improvement and growth. Effectively, the sales volume and prices of most of the company’s oil and gas products increased year-on-year.
Sinopec said that since the beginning of this year, the global epidemic situation has generally improved, and the demand for petroleum and petrochemical markets has recovered quickly. The company has seized the opportunity to reduce procurement costs, optimize production and operations, and promote the industrial chain. The overall efficiency has been improved, and the operating conditions of each business segment have been greatly improved.
In the first half of 2020, under the influence of the COVID-19 epidemic, global fuel demand dropped sharply. Amid severe oversupply, international oil prices also experienced a cliff-like plunge; the two major domestic oil companies The operating performance of each major segment of the oil giants, PetroChina and Sinopec, suffered heavy losses, and the overall performance also suffered substantial losses.
Since May last year, international oil prices have slowly recovered from a historic low. Currently, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil futures have reached a high of 75 US dollars per barrel. , the price difference between U.S. oil and Brent oil has also continued to narrow.
For PetroChina, its subsidiary Kunlun Energy (00135.HK) successfully completed the pipeline equity transfer and delivery, which also contributed to performance growth. On April 1, Kunlun Energy sold 60% of the equity of Beijing Pipeline Company and 75% of Dalian LNG Company to the National Pipeline Network Group. According to previously disclosed data, this transaction brought Kunlun Energy 40.886 billion yuan. of cash flow.
Previously, due to the new crown epidemic, the global crude oil market was severely oversupplied. However, with the recovery of global crude oil demand and the strict implementation of the largest production reduction agreement in OPEC+ history, global liquidity has become abundant. and other factors, oil prices have also embarked on a recovery path.
The oil and gas industry continues to recover
As of At present, the recovery of international oil prices is still relatively slow, but since the second quarter of last year, the operating performance of domestic oil companies has improved significantly.
In the second quarter of 2020, the net losses of PetroChina and Sinopec both narrowed quarter-on-quarter, and by the third quarter they had achieved a significant turnaround, offsetting the losses in the first half of the year; After the end of the fourth quarter, Sinopec achieved a net profit of 33.1 billion yuan in 2020, and PetroChina’s net profit also reached 19 billion yuan.
Since this year, the oil and gas industry has continued to rebound. In the first quarter, PetroChina and Sinopec achieved a combined net profit of 45.6 billion yuan.
From the stock price point of view, PetroChina has been rising steadily since the end of April. As of now, the stock price has reached 5.23 yuan/share. Compared with the level at the end of April, the current increase is close to 30%, and the overall market value exceeds 950 billion yuan.
For oil service companies, their industry conditions lag behind changes in oil prices. Against the background of increasing domestic efforts in oil and gas exploration and development, China National Offshore Oilfield Services (601808.SH) and Petrochemical Oilfield Services (600871.SH) bucked the oil and gas industry’s loss trend and achieved profits in the first half of last year.
Petrochemical oil services achieved revenue of 14.6 billion yuan in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%; the net profit attributable to the company’s shareholders was 166 million yuan, compared with a loss of 182 million yuan in the same period last year. , to achieve a turnaround from losses to profits.
Offshore Oil Engineering (600583.SH)’s revenue in the first quarter was 3.091 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 120 million yuan, compared with a loss of 300 million yuan in the same period last year. Achieve a substantial turnaround from losses to profits.
Offshore Oil Co., Ltd.Cheng pointed out that the company’s workload will exceed the historical peak in 2021. Among the contracted oil and gas field project construction, 17 projects will be completed and put into production within the year; for this reason, the company’s land construction and offshore installation workload is full and the production tasks are arduous.
For COSL, based on last year’s high growth base, performance declined significantly.
In the first quarter of this year, COSL achieved revenue of 5.902 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 27.7%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 181 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 84.1%. In the first quarter of 2020, COSL’s net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.139 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3575.8%.
COSL pointed out in the performance report that global oil prices are currently recovering slowly, but the oilfield services industry is still facing the pressure of oversupply, and there are major challenges in returning the workload to a full state.
Since 2020, with the decline in oil prices and demand, as well as the impact of global climate policy changes, some international oil and gas giants have stated that they will reduce oil and gas production and deploy new energy industries. Domestic Society and businesses are also undergoing a clean energy transition. However, the oil and gas industry will also play an important role in supporting national energy security for a period of time.
In recent years, with the continuous implementation of the domestic “Seven-Year Action Plan”, the domestic oil and gas exploration and development market is still growing. The “2021 Energy Work Guidance” issued in April this year pointed out that in order to strengthen the foundation of energy supply guarantee, it will also promote the increase of oil and gas reserves and production, ensure that investment in exploration and development is not reduced, and accelerate the acceleration of shale oil and gas, tight gas, coal bed methane, etc. Unconventional resource development.
The crude oil market reaches a crossroads
In the first half of this year, international crude oil prices have generally risen amid shocks, and have now reached their highest level in the past three years.
With the rapid recovery of global crude oil demand, OPEC and its oil-producing allies are also considering further easing production reduction policies, and Iranian crude oil is also expected to flow into the market, affecting the overall supply. .
Oil prices have reached highs. Oil-producing countries are debating over oil prices, supply and demand, and market share. The crude oil market has reached a crossroads of choice.
In the first half of 2021, the average price of WTI crude oil futures was US$62.22/barrel, an increase of 48.8% month-on-month; the average price of Brent crude oil futures was US$65.23/barrel, an increase of 47.27% month-on-month. %.
Currently, the focus of the market is on the OPEC+ ministerial meeting. What subsequent production reduction plans the oil-producing countries will adopt will have a major impact on the crude oil market.
Previously, it was reported that the OPEC+ organization plans to increase the supply of crude oil to the market by 400,000 barrels per day every month, and by the end of the year, the total supply of crude oil will be increased by 2 million barrels per day.
Han Zhengji, a crude oil analyst at Jinlianchuang, a commodity information agency, pointed out that it is a high probability that OPEC+ will maintain a prudent production reduction policy in the third quarter, and it will take at least 10 years to significantly relax production cuts. Wait until the fourth quarter. In addition, mutated strains of the new coronavirus will intensify the epidemic in some areas and partially suppress the demand for crude oil.
“By the fourth quarter of this year, with the end of the global crude oil consumption peak season, OPEC+ may further increase crude oil production, and the global crude oil market supply and demand pattern may shift from oversupply in the third quarter to Supply and demand are tightly balanced, and supply may be slightly greater than demand by the end of the year,” Han Zhengji said.
It is still unknown whether the global epidemic will rebound this winter. However, according to the traditional market rules of the off-peak and peak seasons, crude oil prices will experience a seasonal decline. The OPEC+ meeting from the end of November to the beginning of December will becomes more important.
In Jin Lianchuang’s view, the crude oil market may show a trend of “first rising and then falling” in the second half of the year, and has the power to hit US$80 per barrel. </p
