Spandex, known as the “monosodium glutamate” in the textile industry, has continued to rise in price since the beginning of the year and has rapidly “out of the circle”. Due to the crazy price increase of spandex raw materials and the situation of shortage of goods, downstream production companies are facing a shortage of raw materials and may have to reduce production at any time due to unavailability of raw materials.
Zhejiang Lingjie Textile Co., Ltd., located at No. 7, Xinbei District, Lizhu CNC Knitting Park, Shaoxing City, is a company that produces, processes, and sells various mid- to high-end knitted fabrics. An integrated production enterprise. In order to adapt to market conditions, a real-time quotation mechanism will be adopted from July 3.
It is reported that the price of spandex has reached a new high in ten years. . An industry insider who has been in the industry for many years lamented that the price of spandex has also been ups and downs over the years, but it has rarely exceeded 60,000 yuan/ton, and it has never been seen like this round of sustained price increases. ”
What caused the current round of spandex price increases? What is the future trend of spandex prices? Recently, a reporter from “Securities Daily” interviewed spandex business people and industry Analysts.
Supply exceeds demand
Spandex prices hit ten-year high
The current round of spandex price increases began in August 2020. At that time, the domestic epidemic was well controlled, the operating rate of enterprises continued to improve, and the price of spandex began to rebound from the bottom. As an elasticity The main raw material of fabrics, the price of spandex has also been rising as the demand has increased, and the price has doubled.
“A very important reason for the current increase in spandex prices is the relationship between supply and demand On the tight side. “Gong Yuqian, a spandex industry analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told a reporter from Securities Daily that on the demand side, the recovery of domestic textile and apparel demand after the epidemic coupled with the transfer of foreign orders has driven the growth of spandex demand. On the supply side, due to the downturn in spandex prices in the past few years, the industry has accelerated During the reshuffle, many old production capacities were eliminated, and the spandex supply and demand pattern changed from overcapacity to tight supply.
Spandex companies have clearly felt the growth on the demand side. “After the epidemic, we clearly felt that downstream customers in the medical field such as mask earbands and protective clothing had a significant increase in demand for spandex, while this part of the market was previously small. “Liu Jianning of Taihe New Materials Securities Department told a reporter from Securities Daily that the epidemic has led to people spending more time at home and increasing health awareness, which has led to an increase in the application of spandex in home sportswear and casual sportswear, as well as relatively sufficient orders in the textile industry. The demand for spandex is growing rapidly.
In addition to the growth in domestic demand, affected by the new crown epidemic, the exports of the garment industry in Southeast Asian countries have shrunk severely, and some orders for textiles have been transferred to China, further promoting the Increased demand for spandex. Customs statistics show that from September 2020 to May 2021, China’s cumulative export volume of textiles and clothing was US$216.725 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.74%, of which the cumulative export volume of textiles was US$105.230 billion, a year-on-year increase 6.47%; the cumulative export volume of clothing was US$111.495 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.56%. Especially from January to May this year, China’s cumulative clothing export volume was US$56.612 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.33%.
“The growth in demand for spandex can also be verified from the operating rate of downstream looms. “Gong Yuqian told the Securities Daily reporter that as of June 24, the operating rates of circular knitting machines and warp knitting machines in Zhejiang were 61% and 87% respectively, an increase of 11 and 17 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. In the first half of 2021, circular knitting machines will The operating rates of circular knitting and warp knitting were 53% and 72% respectively; in the same period of 2020, due to the epidemic, the operating rates of circular knitting and warp knitting were only 33% and 34%.
“In addition, the increase in raw material prices is also an important factor in the increase in spandex prices. “Gong Yuqian said that in the first half of this year, the average price of PTMEG, the main raw material of spandex, reached 34,515.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 99% from the same period last year. The average price of another raw material, MDI, also increased by 55%. The rising cost is an important support for the price increase of spandex.
Production capacity is stable
High prosperity is expected to continue
In less than a year, the price of spandex has gone from the bottom to a new high. This round of rise has also driven the rapid growth of the performance of listed companies in the industry. Taihe New Materials achieved a net profit of 177 million yuan in the first quarter of this year, a year-on-year increase of 2.38 times; Huafeng Chemical’s net profit in the first quarter was 1.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 5 times; Xinxiang Chemical Fiber, another spandex leader, had a net profit attributable to its parent company of 311 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of more than 5 times.
In the second quarter, the prosperity of the spandex industry continues to rise, and the performance of related listed companies is expected to continue to grow rapidly. At present, the operating rate of the spandex industry exceeds 90%, and inventory levels have reached historical lows. A source from the spandex company told reporters , under normal circumstances, the inventory for about a month is normal. Currently, the company’s inventory is only 3-5 days, which is the lowest in history. Some spandex companies even said that the current production capacity is tight, supply exceeds demand, and queuing for new orders has become the norm.
The first half of the year is coming to an end. Whether the spandex industry can continue its high prosperity in the second half of the year is the issue that investors are most concerned about.
In this regard, Sinolink Securities believes that the increase in spandex supply will be limited in 2021. In the context of limited room for increasing the operating rate of spandex factories and less new production capacity, the tight supply of spandex will continue, and support will still exist on the cost side. , the market justWith strong demand, spandex may usher in a new round of real prosperity.
“The current industry supply and demand are still very tight, and industry inventories continue to remain at the lowest level for 12-14 days.” Guosen Securities also believes that the future expansion of the spandex industry The production is mainly concentrated in the leading manufacturers in the industry, and the launch of new production capacity is mainly concentrated in the second half of the year. The spandex industry will still maintain a high industry prosperity in the second half of this year, and product prices may still hit new highs in the third quarter.
“As of now, the domestic effective production capacity is about 870,000 tons. Although there are many plans to add production capacity, they are mainly concentrated at the end of the year or next year. In the short term, the spandex boom is It is expected to continue.” Gong Yuqian said that if the new production capacity is implemented as planned, it is expected to reach 1 million tons by the end of 2021, with a growth rate of nearly 15%, which will effectively alleviate the tight spandex production capacity.
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