In June, the upstream and downstream markets of the polyester industry chain showed a generally volatile and strong trend. International crude oil prices remained strong and broke through the year’s high in the second half of the year. Commodities collectively strengthened. The polyester raw material PTA and ethylene glycol markets fluctuated higher driven by the cost side. The polyester product market passively followed the rise in raw materials. Under the pressure of high costs, the processing fees of polyester companies have been significantly reduced. Affected by the off-season demand, the terminal textile and weaving industry has seen its operating load drop, inventories remain high, and enthusiasm for purchasing polyester raw materials is low. The production and sales of polyester companies are average. They only promote daily production and sales, and corporate inventories have declined slightly.
Table 1 The rise and fall rankings of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in June:
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
As shown in Table 1, in terms of month-on-month range, PX (CFR Taiwan) increased by 0.66% month-on-month, PTA increased by 2.72% month-on-month, MEG increased by 0.17% month-on-month, and polyester chips increased by month-on-month. It fell by 1.47%, polyester bottle flakes increased by 0.61% month-on-month, polyester filament fell by 2.16% month-on-month, and polyester short fiber increased by 0.32% month-on-month.
Analysis on the rise and fall of the chemical fiber industry chain and trends in June
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Jinlianchuang Chemical Fiber Industry Chain monitored the monthly average prices of 7 chemical fiber products and raw materials. As shown in the figure above, most of the monthly average prices of chemical fiber products increased in June, with the increase concentrated in 0-3%. The largest one was PTA, which rose by 2.72%, followed by polyester chips, which rose by 1.47%. Only polyester filament fell slightly.
Data source: Jin Lianchuang
Statistics on the rise and fall of various products in the chemical fiber industry chain in June As shown in the figure above, the chemical fiber industry chain market was dominated by strong fluctuations during the month, and its overall level significantly exceeded the price in the same period last year. From the year-on-year data, it can be seen that PX prices have the largest increase, with the monthly average price rising 63.22% year-on-year. , followed by ethylene glycol, with an average monthly price increase of 38.71% compared with last year, and the smallest increase was polyester bottle flakes, which only increased by 14.51%.
Analysis of market trends of major chemical fiber chain products
PX:
The Asian PX market fluctuated higher in June and performed strongly. As of the end of the month, Asia PX is estimated to be US$919/ton FOB South Korea and US$937/ton CFR Taiwan/China, up US$92/ton from the end of last month. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil continued to be strong, but the increase has slowed down. Due to weak terminal polyester demand, PTA supply is under pressure, and the downstream market is weak, the enthusiasm for PX demand is average. However, due to the intensification of PX losses, merchants are not strong in profit-making intentions, and there is There is a reluctance to sell. As crude oil hits a new high this year, PX continues to rise with cost support. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s second phase PX new device is about to be put into production. The mentality of the industry is different. In addition, the terminal demand is average, and the market is cautious to follow the rise. At the end of the month, PX and above There is a general short squeeze in the downstream market. In particular, a new 2 million tons/year PX device of Zhejiang Petrochemical was temporarily shut down. Short-term supply tightened, market enthusiasm was high, business confidence increased, and the market saw a wave of continuous upward trends. At the end of the month, Sinopec announced that the settlement price of PX in June was 6,500 yuan/ton, which was 10 yuan/ton higher than the settlement price last month. The average CFR Taiwan/China price in June was US$870.45/ton, up 0.66% month-on-month and 78.11% year-on-year. The lowest price was US$843/ton on June 9, and the highest price was US$937/ton on June 28. Ton.
PTA:
The PTA spot market rose within a narrow range in June, and the overall transaction situation was acceptable. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil market rose to a high level, which was good for the PTA market on the cost side. However, the PTA processing range continues to expand, the maintenance plan of some PTA devices has been postponed, and the supply side is expected to rebound. Rigid demand from polyester factories is stable, but terminal weaving starts are seasonally weaker, and inventories in various downstream links are rising. The fundamental support for PTA is insufficient, and the pressure on market prices is weak. On the 10th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 30-40 yuan/ton for the 2109 contract, and the offer was reduced by 40-45 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 4580-4610 yuan/ton. In the middle of the year, the international crude oil market rose strongly, the cost side boosted the PTA market, and market sentiment was warm. Although some PTA devices have restarted due to heating up, the supply of spot goods in some areas is still tight, and there is not much pressure on the supply side. The operating load of polyester factories is high, but the terminal demand is weak, and the downstream intention to receive goods is not high, which suppresses the growth of PTA to a certain extent. On the 17th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 55 yuan/ton for the 2109 contract, and the offer was reduced by 65 yuan/ton. The negotiation centered on 4800-4830 yuan/ton. In the second half of the year, the crude oil market continued to remain at a high level, and the cost side’s role in pushing up PTA prices increased. Although new equipment is put into trial operation and supply is expected to increase, some mainstream factories are still reducing contract supply, boosting market confidence. Substantial demand in the terminal market is insufficient, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average. Polyester production starts remain at a high level, and rigid demand is stable. At the end of the month, the international crude oil market fell, and the support for the PTA market from the cost end was loose. The PTA market price fell back. On the 29th, the spot offer at the main port in East China was reduced by 45 yuan/ton for the 2109 contract, and the offer was reduced by 50 yuan/ton. Negotiations centered around 5,000- 5060 yuan/ton. The average PTA market price in East China in June was 4,788 yuan/ton, up 2.72% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year. The highest price appeared on the 28th at 5,170 yuan/ton, and the lowest price appeared at 4,580 yuan/ton on the 8th.
MEG:
The ethylene glycol market bottomed out and rebounded in June. The first month of the monthDuring this period, polyester production and sales performance was weak, polyester companies still maintained production restrictions, and weak demand continued to drag down the overall market atmosphere. Taken together, the polyester industry chain market will still be dominated by shocks next month. The following is the market outlook for each product:
PX:
It is expected that the PX market will have difficulty rising in July, digesting the increase, and the market will be mainly affected by the upstream The strength of crude oil has led to higher prices, but its own supply is not optimistic. The new PX equipment will be put into production next month, which will inevitably have an impact on the market. Once crude oil falls, the market will be prone to panic. Overall, it is expected that the PX market will be easy to fall in July. rise.
PTA:
It is expected that the PTA market may operate in a narrow range in July. Judging from the current market, as Yisheng’s new equipment is put into production, it is planned to produce qualified products within this month; although processing fees are low, some PTA factories still have maintenance plans, but supply pressure may increase. However, in terms of demand, the polyester end production has remained at a high level, which has supported the demand for PTA. However, the weaving operating rate has weakened and the order situation has not improved significantly. In the traditional off-season, the PTA market transaction situation is not good. In the short term, PTA still depends on changes in the cost side, maintaining a narrow range of fluctuations.
MEG:
It is expected that the ethylene glycol market may remain volatile in July. From a macro perspective, as the global epidemic situation has been alleviated to some extent, the market is optimistic about the recovery of demand, and international oil prices may still have room to rise. From a fundamental point of view, some preliminary maintenance equipment has been restarted, new equipment has gradually been put into operation, and port inventory accumulation is expected to be strong under the expected increase in imports. However, port inventory will remain low in the short term, and tight spot circulation will still support the market. However, downstream accumulation The ester end is still in the traditional consumption off-season, production and sales continue to be light, inventory pressure is high, and demand performance is average. In the short term, the market is divided between long and short, and it is expected that the ethylene glycol market will remain volatile in the future.
Polyester PET:
It is expected that the polyester PET market may fluctuate widely in July. From the supply side, polyester PET production profits are still at a loss, so companies are not very enthusiastic about starting production, and the polyester production load has fallen back within a narrow range. From the demand side, the terminal textile market is still in the off-season in July. Although foreign trade orders have increased, due to factors such as raw materials, shipping costs, exchange rates, etc., manufacturers have limited actual operating space, and may continue to wait and see cautiously. From the cost side, the PTA market and the ethylene glycol market are more willing to raise prices in the short term, and the contract supply of the main PTA factories in July has been reduced, which has a stronger boost to the market and provides solid cost support. Taken together, market supply pressure may still exist. Therefore, it is expected that the polyester PET market may fluctuate widely in July. In the future, we should pay close attention to the trend of international crude oil and the trend of the upstream raw material market.
Polyester fiber:
It is expected that the polyester fiber market will mainly fluctuate widely in July. Some PTA factories still have maintenance plans, but there are new equipment put into production. The PTA market may operate in a narrow range in July, and the cost-end support is relatively average. Polyester fiber’s inventory control was better in June, but July is still the off-season for demand, so it maintains production restrictions and needs to pay attention to other planned maintenance equipment. In terms of downstream terminals, the inventory of weaving factories is slightly higher than the same period, so demand will not increase significantly in the short term. Affected by this, the polyester fiber market will mainly follow the wide fluctuations of raw materials. </p
