On July 2, China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. issued the “Announcement on the Rotation of Central Reserve Cotton in 2021.” The announcement stated that in accordance with the requirements of relevant national departments and the arrangements of China Grain Reserves Management Group Co., Ltd., in order to optimize the structure of central reserve cotton, ensure good quality, and enhance the central reserve control capabilities, part of the central reserve cotton will be rotated out in 2021.
According to the reporter’s understanding, the rotation time of the central reserve cotton in 2021 is the national legal working day from July 5 to September 30, 2021; the total rotation amount is 600,000 tons. During the rotation period, except for the suspended trading days, in principle, a balanced release will be implemented; the sales floor price of the rotation will be determined dynamically according to the market, and will be linked to the domestic and foreign cotton spot prices. It will be determined by the domestic market cotton spot price index and the international market cotton spot price. Each index is calculated and determined based on a 50% weight and is adjusted weekly. At the same time, during the rotation period, when the cumulative decline of the domestic market cotton spot price index exceeds 500 yuan/ton for 3 consecutive working days, trading will be suspended from the next working day; when the domestic market cotton spot price index falls for 3 consecutive working days When the cumulative decline no longer occurs, trading will be restarted on the next working day. In terms of rotation method, it is sold through public bidding in the national cotton trading market.
In addition, the quality and weight of the cotton from the central reserve will be 100% notarized and inspected by the China Fiber Quality Monitoring Center. In principle, it is produced from 2011 to 2013. The buyer should Pick up the goods within 10 working days (inclusive) from the date of issuance of the “Central Reserve Cotton Release Note”. If the goods are not picked up more than 10 working days (inclusive), the storage unit must transfer it to commercial cotton for storage and move it out of the central reserve. In the cotton storage area, the buyer should sign a commodity cotton storage contract with the storage unit in a timely manner, clarifying the relevant responsibilities and cost standards for storage, insurance, etc., and the relevant costs shall be borne by the buyer.
Information released by relevant agencies shows that today, 9,500 tons of cotton reserves will be released through the national cotton trading market, including 5,800 tons of Xinjiang cotton.
According to the reporter’s understanding, domestic new cotton is currently growing well, and Xinjiang cotton has gradually entered the flowering and boll-bearing period. Su Yanli, a cotton purchaser in Korla, Xinjiang, told reporters that compared with previous years, the overall growth and development period of cotton in Xinjiang is now about a week delayed. There are certain differences in the growth of cotton in various regions. In some areas, cotton has already budded, while in some areas, cotton has just bloomed. However, due to the recent sustained high temperature weather in various parts of Xinjiang, the growth rate of cotton has accelerated, which may allow cotton in some areas to recover the growth progress that was lost due to low temperatures in the early stage.
“Before May this year, the weather in various parts of Xinjiang changed greatly, and extreme weather such as low temperature and hail occurred more frequently. This not only delayed the cotton sowing period in some areas, but also affected the area and frequency of re-sowing. has increased, and has led to a slowdown in cotton growth. For example, the cotton topping time is about a week later than in previous years.” Su Yanli said that fortunately, in June, the temperature in Xinjiang returned to normal, and cotton farmers have strengthened field management. It is expected that Xinjiang will The growth prospects of new cotton are optimistic.
“I have just finished investigating the cotton production situation in Xinjiang in the new season. Overall, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang has declined, but the cotton planting area has increased in some areas , for example, farmers in Aksu, Alar and other places began to switch to cotton due to losses in planting red dates. However, this phenomenon is not common. Due to restrictions on planned land use, local farmers mostly interplant cotton in jujube forests. In Shasha In places like Ya and other places, cotton fields have been replanted with wheat and silage corn.” Wu Xinyang, a cotton analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of CITIC Futures, said that the overall cotton growth in Xinjiang is more than a week slow, and some are lagging behind by more than two weeks. , among which the cotton growth situation in the Corps is better than that in local areas. From the perspective of planting costs, chemical fertilizers, land rents and water fees have increased significantly, and the price of chemical fertilizers has nearly doubled; the return of farmland to forests in the Tarim River Basin has increased the demand for land in other cotton planting areas, and land rents have increased significantly; due to Xinjiang’s heavy investment in agriculture in the past two years The planning of water use has been adjusted. Previously low-cost agricultural water has become market-oriented, and irrigation costs have increased.
Industry insiders said that judging from the recent trends in cotton prices at home and abroad, prices are rising steadily, boosted by the decline in the estimated new season cotton area in China and the United States. Specific to the domestic cotton market, rigid demand is relatively stable, sales of downstream products have gradually recovered, and cotton quotations owned by ginners, traders, etc. have increased slightly. At present, the market is paying more attention to the central reserve cotton rotation policy, the issuance of cotton import quotas with sliding tariffs, and the order situation from July to August.
“Domestic cotton prices were relatively flat before July. The main September contract price of Zheng Cotton fluctuated around the key price of 16,000 yuan/ton, and the differences between the long and short sides intensified. Some time ago, the market It is estimated that the actual cotton planting area in China and the United States has been reduced significantly, but after the relevant planting reports were released, the decline in cotton planting area was limited, giving the market the feeling that all profits have been exhausted.” Wu Xinyang said, at the same time, from the central reserve cotton Judging from the scale of rotation and the length of rotation, this year’s rotation of central reserves has increased compared with previous years, which can easily be interpreted as “negative” by the market. However, a careful analysis of the method of rotation of cotton from central reserves can be found. Price stabilization has been taken into account. Therefore, the central reserve cotton rotation is more to meet downstream demand rather than for price control. Taken together, the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic cotton market is slowly resolving, but in the off-season…Changes on the demand side that have been ignored by the market in the past should be taken seriously. For example, global textile and apparel consumption is still recovering. </p
