Flame retardant fabric_Flame retardant fabric_Cotton flame retardant fabric_Flame retardant fabric information platform Flame-retardant Fabric News The contradiction between supply and demand may become the key to determining the trend of the short fiber market

The contradiction between supply and demand may become the key to determining the trend of the short fiber market



Despite the increasing pressure of losses, the recent direct-spun staple fiber market is still weaker than other polyester varieties. The reasons for this situation are nothing mor…

Despite the increasing pressure of losses, the recent direct-spun staple fiber market is still weaker than other polyester varieties. The reasons for this situation are nothing more than excessive overdraft in the early market, the impact of substitutes, and the reduction in consumption caused by shrinking foreign trade. .

Let’s first analyze why there is such a big contrast between polyester staple fiber this year and last year?

Trend chart of direct spinning staple fiber production capacity and output changes in the past 10 years

Source: Longzhong Information

After overcapacity reduction and product structure optimization and adjustment from 2014 to 2017, the direct-spinning staple fiber market once again ushered in a new capacity expansion peak in 2018, but in 2018- The reason for capacity expansion in 2019 is based on the squeeze on the market share of recycled short fiber. However, due to the re-expansion of production capacity, the short fiber market has shifted from a balanced state to a slight surplus as early as 2019. Well, in 2020, the epidemic did not have a major impact on the short fiber market. On the contrary, due to the involvement of some anti-epidemic products and the low-cost advantage brought by low oil prices, the consumption of the short fiber market increased, but the contradiction of oversupply It must always be fed back to the market. Due to the market’s overestimation of demand in 2021 last year, the short fiber market was overdrafted at the beginning of this year, while the improvement in downstream demand has not been realized. Foreign trade orders continue to be affected by the epidemic, rising sea freight and insufficient containers. Problems continue to plague the market. Internal circulation alone puts great pressure on the entire textile chain.

Comparison of price difference between original and recycled staple fiber

Source: Longzhong Information

With the increase in oil and raw material prices this year, the absolute price of short fiber has also increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the price difference with recycled short fiber has continued to narrow. In March this year Since then, the price difference between the two has remained above a thousand yuan for a long time, which has also caused a squeeze on the market share of primary staple fibers. And due to the good market demand for cotton and cotton yarn, some pure polyester yarn companies have increased the production proportion of polyester-cotton yarn. Therefore, under the circumstances of one and the other, they jointly contribute to the current pressure on direct-spun staple fibers.

As for the market outlook, can the polyester staple fiber market rebound? When can we expect a comeback?

At present, the slow destocking of the short fiber market still restricts the market, although the 250,000 tons/year device in West China plans to reduce production next week (restarts and new production capacity are mostly hollow ), the actual supply of cotton staple fiber has shrunk significantly; however, downstream yarn companies continue to suffer from insufficient production due to lack of work, and orders from terminal weaving companies are average, printing and dyeing operations even tend to decline, and foreign trade orders are also limited. The peak season has not yet arrived, and terminal demand is still facing greater pressure.

Recent PF warehouse receipt quantity statistics

Source: Longzhong Information

In addition, the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly recently. Judging from the current situation, the delivery pressure in September will be relatively high, which will also pose a certain drag on the spot market. The current industrial customers are mostly short-selling logic, which also affects the 09 contract. However, after the recent rapid decline in futures prices and the continuous shipments last week and this week, the external supply of goods has been significantly reduced. Although there are still 60,000 to 70,000 tons of physical inventory in external warehouses, the overall supply of goods available for sale is not much, and the rights and interests of middlemen Inventories fell significantly. From the perspective of factories, the inventory pressure of brands with better liquidity is not great. In addition, the enterprises themselves are under great pressure to make losses. Therefore, there is not much room for the absolute price of the short fiber market to continue to fall further.

Then when will the short fiber market turn around? This will probably have to wait for the recovery of terminal demand. At present, there are too many goods hoarded in various downstream links. Although the processing gap of yarn mills is better in the short term, the inventory of terminal textile and garment links is slowly digested, and the market has not yet seen signs of the peak season.

Taken together, the short fiber market trend still has a certain probability of decline, judging from the pressure on raw materials that may be brought about by the weakness of the terminal and the production reduction of polyester factories. , but considering that the current processing fee space is very weak, companies are generally under heavy pressure to lose money, and the recent decline in prices has attracted some buyers to stock up at bargain prices. After nearly two weeks of concentrated shipments, the supply of goods available for sale in external warehouses has been significantly reduced, and middlemen The decline in equity inventories will also be a positive factor for the market. Therefore, the room for the absolute price decline of short fiber is expected to be limited, but the upward turning point still needs to wait for the transformation of the contradiction between supply and demand. </p

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Author: clsrich

 
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