Recently, the overall performance of the polyester chain has been sluggish. After ethylene glycol failed to hit a staged high, it continued to decline and had to seek support at 5,000 points; staple fiber slipped from the shock platform in mid-July and hit a three-and-a-half-month low on Monday; PTA was relatively resilient, but also Seek support below 5,000 points.
What is the recent level of PTA processing fees? Considering oil prices and upstream raw material prices, is there still room for compression? What are the supply and demand expectations for the ethylene glycol 01 contract? What is the opportunity for the short fiber market to stabilize and stop falling in the future? Is there a possibility of rebound?
[Institutional consultation]: Polyester chain varieties have performed poorly in the past half month, especially ethylene glycol and staple fiber before the main force changes. Obviously weak, what is the main factor? What are the reasons why PTA is relatively resistant to falling after the month change?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst at SDIC Essence Futures: The supply and demand in the ethylene glycol and short fiber markets are loose, lacking an obvious bullish boost, so the price performance is weak. Although from the inventory level, ethylene glycol is at a low level and the price is elastic, the actual factory inventory is sufficient, and new domestic devices continue to be put into production, the output is growing steadily, and the port arrival volume is also at a relatively high level, so ethylene glycol is accumulating. Treasury is expected to suppress the market. After the high profits and high output of short fiber in the second half of last year and the first half of this year, the domestic spot market inventory is relatively large, mainly due to speculative stocking by traders and downstream companies. Therefore, although the factory’s equity inventory is low, the physical inventory is relatively high, and the product inventory of downstream weaving companies is high. In the absence of new demand, the short fiber market sales are weak, prices are low, profits are poor, and corporate maintenance is increasing. Before the month change of PTA, the market’s main trading equipment maintenance, tight supply, and peak season demand were bullish. However, after August, as the peak season approached, the downstream polyester operating rate did not rise but fell, and the oil price also ended its strong rise. PTA The restart of the equipment led to an increase in supply and multiple bullish turns. PTA prices also ended their strong situation and fell into shock. However, compared with ethylene glycol and staple fiber, the PTA spot market has not yet shown an obvious surplus, so the price has resisted falling.
Liu Mengmeng, industrial products analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: The current epidemic situation is recurring, epidemic prevention policies are tightened, logistics is restricted, demand recovery is not smooth, and crude oil prices are running weakly, all of which have a negative impact on polyester chain varieties. Have a negative impact. In addition, the supply and demand situation of various varieties is also an important factor affecting the weak price operation. In terms of ethylene glycol, port unloading has returned to normal, domestic supply growth is expected to gradually increase, downstream negative expectations are strong, supply and demand have weakened, and the ethylene glycol market is weak and volatile. In terms of short fiber, although some equipment has been overhauled, supply and demand pressure still exists under weak demand, profits are difficult to recover effectively, and short fiber production and sales performance is poor. PTA spot is still tight, PX prices remain at a high level, cost-side support is still there, and destocking is still expected in August, so PTA is relatively resilient.
Founder mid-term futures energy researcher Zhai Qidi: As far as ethylene glycol is concerned, the recent 09 contract has shown a decrease in positions, rising coal and oil costs in early market transactions, and typhoon disturbances leading to port closures and other positive factors Gradually digested, and recent terminal new orders have been poor, polyester factories have jointly reduced production, and the demand for ethylene glycol has weakened. In addition, the new Gulei device has been commissioned and tested, and bulls have taken the initiative to leave the market, driving the ethylene glycol 09 contract to weaken significantly.
As far as short fiber is concerned, it faces dual pressures of supply, demand and cost. On the one hand, the current terminal new orders are not good, and the inventory of pure polyester yarn and polyester-cotton yarn has accumulated. Previously, the downstream stocking of short fiber was also at a low level. Although the staple fiber factory has reduced production, the inventory of finished products is still accumulated, and the supply and demand performance is skewed. On the other hand, the recent decline in raw materials PTA and ethylene glycol from high levels has also led to the weakening of short fiber on the cost side.
The supply and demand structure of PTA is better than that of short fiber and ethylene glycol. PTA has been out of storage since March this year. At the same time, there are still many large-capacity PTA devices that have not been overhauled for a long time. The market also has expectations for subsequent maintenance. Although polyester production has been reduced in stages recently, the duration is expected to be limited. , PTA as a whole is still in a destocking state in August, and may be in a tight balance in September. With little pressure from supply and demand, PTA is relatively resilient.
[Institutional consultation]: What is the recent level of PTA processing fees? Considering oil prices and upstream raw material prices, is there still room for compression? What impact will this have on future performance?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst of SDIC Essence Futures: Recently, the spot processing fee of PTA has been fluctuating around 700 yuan/ton. Compared with the processing difference level at the beginning of the year, there has been a significant recovery. The price of auxiliary acetic acid, which has risen sharply this year and once eroded PTA’s profits significantly, has also dropped from a high of more than 8,000 yuan/ton to less than 6,000 yuan/ton. Therefore, PTA’s production profits have improved significantly. Combined with the supply and demand analysis of the future market, the current processing gap The level is relatively good. Amid expectations that shrinking demand and the commissioning of new equipment may cause supply and demand to weaken, there is room for compression of the processing gap. The future trend of PTA is not only related to its relative price, that is, the processing difference, but also depends on the absolute cost, that is, the trend of upstream raw materials. At present, oil prices are expected to fall back from high levels, while the naphtha-crude oil price difference is at a historical high for the same period, and there is room for compression. The PX-naphtha price difference is above US$400/ton, which is lower than last year’s level of around US$200/ton. A major repair has been made, and the new PX production capacity is also expected to continue to grow in the future. Based on the price difference levels of PTA and various upstream links, once the PTA futures market weakens, from oil prices to PXThere is room for decline, but the pace needs to be determined based on the supply and demand of each link.
Liu Mengmeng, industrial products analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: It is understood that PTA processing fees have generally shown a slow increase recently. As of August 17, PTA processing fees were approximately 713 yuan/ton. The recent decline in crude oil has suppressed the PTA market sentiment. Coupled with the short-term restart of PTA equipment and high processing fees, PTA prices have fallen slightly. However, PTA’s own fundamental performance is acceptable. Inventory depletion still boosts PTA prices, and the decline is limited.
Founder mid-term futures energy chemical researcher Zhai Qidi: As of August 17, the PTA spot processing fee is 708 yuan/ton. Although the processing fee has dropped from the level of 800-900 yuan/ton at the end of July, it is still is at a high level during the year. Sanfangxiang 2# has been restarted recently, and units such as Honggang 1# and Sanfangxiang 1# will be restarted in the future. PTA supply is expected to increase in stages in mid-to-late August. At the same time, polyester factories have recently reduced production, and PTA is just in need of month-on-month growth. Weak, so in the case of increasing supply and decreasing demand, there is a certain compression expectation for PTA processing fees. However, as there are still several large-capacity devices with annual maintenance expected, there is currently little pressure on PTA supply and demand in the third quarter, and the compression of processing fees is expected to be limited. . As for the market, due to the recent weak rebound in oil prices and the expectation of a periodic weakening of PTA processing fees, it may lead to a weak consolidation in the market in the near future.
[Institutional consultation]: What is the expected supply and demand for the ethylene glycol 01 contract? What is the opportunity for the short fiber market to stabilize and stop falling in the future? Is there a possibility of rebound?
Pang Chunyan, senior analyst of SDIC Essence Futures: The expected accumulation of ethylene glycol market in 2021 has been continuously postponed, mainly because of the frequent maintenance of overseas equipment starting from the second half of last year. This resulted in a shrinking import volume, a delay in the commissioning of domestic equipment, rising domestic coal prices, poor profits from coal chemical equipment, and low output, among other factors. However, with the commissioning of multiple domestic units such as Satellite Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II, Hubei Sanning, Jianyuan Coal Coking and Gulei Petrochemical, domestic production has continued to rise, while the downstream polyester operating rate has declined, resulting in shrinking demand. Domestic E2 Although the accumulation of alcohol is expected to be delayed, it will eventually be realized, so the supply and demand expectations of the EG01 contract are weak. Short fiber futures continue to be weak this year, mainly due to the mismatch between supply and demand. According to statistics from information companies, traders’ stock levels are currently low and raw material inventories of downstream companies have declined. However, the main reason for the weak short fiber market is that weak terminal demand has led to high product inventories. Therefore, once the product inventories of weaving mills are digested , companies will increase production again, traders and downstream companies are expected to increase stocking, which may be an opportunity for the stabilization of the short fiber market. Once speculative stocking occurs, short fiber prices may also rebound. Of course, it depends on the trend of raw materials. It depends, that is, there is a possibility of recovery of profits.
Liu Mengmeng, industrial products analyst at Huishang Futures Research Institute: The subsequent commissioning of new ethylene glycol devices is expected to be concentrated in the fourth quarter, and supply pressure will be transmitted to the 01 contract, and demand-side support may It is not as good as the pressure on the supply side, so overall, there may be a certain accumulation of reserves in the 01 contract. Currently, the overall profit of polyester is below the profit and loss line, and mainstream manufacturers have begun to have maintenance plans. For short fiber, construction has begun to return to profit. It is expected that under the background of its own supply and demand and the increase in overall polyester maintenance, short fiber profits are expected to stop. Falling, the short fiber market is still likely to stabilize and stop falling.
Founder mid-term futures energy researcher Zhai Qidi: The current supply and demand expectations for the ethylene glycol 01 contract are generally weak, but there are differences in the pace. Among them, the accumulation of stocks in a narrow range in the third quarter, and the speed of accumulation in the middle and late stages of the fourth quarter may be accelerate. On the one hand, ethylene glycol is facing pressure from new production capacity such as Gulei Petrochemical, Guangxi Huayi, Shenhua Yulin, and Xinjiang Guanghui. However, considering the stable mass production time of these devices, the increase in new production capacity may be gradually reflected in September and October. On the other hand, from September to October, there are also multiple domestic coal-based and oil-based ethylene glycol units undergoing maintenance, which will, to a certain extent, offset the pressure on the launch of new production capacity. In addition, since August, many units in Saudi Arabia, the United States and other countries have reduced their load and stopped for some reason. It is expected that ethylene glycol imports will be low in September and October. Therefore, it seems that the supply pressure of ethylene glycol in the third quarter may be less than expected, and the overall inventory will show a narrow accumulation. After the stable mass production of new devices and the rebound of import volume in the fourth quarter, the supply and demand pressure of ethylene glycol may accelerate to pick up. Staple fiber is closer to the downstream of the polyester industry chain and is more sensitive to demand. The stabilization and rebound of short fiber requires a strong burst of demand. We have not seen this sign so far, so there is no significant rebound momentum in the short term. </p
