In the first half of 2021, facing the complex domestic and international development environment, the production situation of my country’s filament weaving industry continued to improve, corporate efficiency improved steadily, and the industry as a whole showed a development trend of accelerating recovery. However, under the influence of factors such as the rise in international commodity prices, the continued evolution of the global epidemic, and the local rebound of the domestic epidemic, the uncertainty of the external environment has increased, and maintaining smooth operation throughout the year still faces many challenges.
The efficiency of an industry is recovering
According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of the year, my country’s The operating income of the entire textile industry increased by 20.32% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 36.72 percentage points from the same period last year. Taking the first half of 2019 as the base period (the same below), the two-year average growth rate was 0.29%; the total profit increased by 41.05% year-on-year, and the growth rate It was 60.06 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the two-year average growth was 6.88%. The profitability of enterprises has accelerated. In the first half of the year, the operating income profit margin of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.6%, an increase of 0.68 and 0.49 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year and the first quarter of this year.
In the first half of the year, the operating income of my country’s regulated chemical fiber weaving and printing and dyeing finishing industries increased by 25.57% year-on-year, and the two-year average growth was 2.59%; the total profit increased by 66.25% year-on-year, and the two-year average still decreased by 7.73%; profit The rate was 2.73%, an increase of 0.67 and 0.91 percentage points respectively from the same period last year and the first quarter of this year. In terms of industry segments, the operating income of the chemical fiber weaving industry (above standard) increased by 24.04% year-on-year, with an average growth of 2.17% over the two years; total profits increased by 44.24% year-on-year, with an average decrease of 7.63% over the two years; the profit margin was 2.48%, an increase of 2.17% over the previous year. During the same period and the first quarter of this year, they increased by 0.35 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. The operating income of the chemical fiber dyeing and finishing industry (above the designated size) increased by 32.09% year-on-year, with an average growth of 4.25% over the two years; total profits increased by 181.97% year-on-year, with an average decrease of 9.55% over the two years; the profit margin was 3.7%, compared with the same period last year and the first half of this year Quarterly increases of 1.96 and 2.55 percentage points respectively.
In the first half of this year, the operating income of my country’s regulated chemical fiber weaving industry was basically the same as in 2019, but the total profit dropped by an average of 7.63% in two years. This is because the loss area expanded from 12.88% to 19.54%, and the loss-making enterprises suffered losses The amount increased significantly by 95.52%. At the same time, the company’s three expenses increased by 6.3%, accounts receivable increased by 7.62%, and finished product inventory increased by 19.5%. The company’s credit sales ratio is too high, the inventory is high, there are financial risks, and profitability is insufficient.
The above data shows that the operation quality and efficiency of the filament weaving industry in the first half of the year have improved significantly compared with that during the epidemic, and the major economic indicators are continuing to recover. However, due to the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate caused by the epidemic, the international situation, etc. Affected by factors such as the skyrocketing sea freight, coupled with the rising costs of raw materials and labor, profit margins have been significantly squeezed, and profitability has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels. Companies are facing more challenges, and there is still a certain pressure on the smooth operation of the industry.
Table 1 Summary of main economic indicators of my country’s chemical fiber weaving and printing and dyeing finishing industry from January to June 2021 Note: The two-year average growth rate is based on 2019 The geometric mean calculated in the first half of the year as the base period (the same below).
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
Second, the production situation continues to recover
According to statistics from each cluster area, in the first half of 2021, chemical fiber filament fabrics in seven places: Shengze, Xiuzhou, Longhu, Siyang, Pingwang, Keqiao, and Dafeng Xiaohai The cumulative output is 11.208 billion meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%. The production situation continues to recover. However, due to factors such as the epidemic and industrial transfer, it has not yet returned to the level of the same period in 2019, and the output has dropped by an average of 4.09% over the two years.
Longhu and Siyang regions performed well, with filament fabrics achieving two-year average positive growth. On the one hand, the increase in output in Siyang is due to the fact that as a transfer site for the filament weaving industry, new factories in Siyang have been put into operation in recent years, and production capacity has gradually expanded; on the other hand, the products produced in Siyang are mainly home textile fabrics, which have been more affected by the epidemic. Small. The Longhu area mainly produces fabrics for outdoor sports and cold-proof clothing. Due to seasonal influences and the rise of “fitness fever”, the output has increased significantly.
Table 2 Production table of chemical fiber filament fabrics in my country’s main filament weaving industry clusters from January to June 2021
Data source: Various industrial clusters
The prices of three raw materials have risen strongly
Figure 1 shows The price trend of a series of raw materials including chemical fiber filament, cotton, PTA futures and Brent crude oil in my country. Since 2021, against the background of demand recovery, inflation expectations, and OPEC production cuts, the commodity market has continued to strengthen, and Brent crude oil prices have been rising, exceeding the oil price level before the outbreak of the new crown epidemic. As crude oil prices increase, PTA prices also continue to rise, driving up fluctuations in the unit price of chemical fiber filaments. The prices of major chemical fiber filaments were significantly different in the first and second quarters. In the first quarter, under the influence of rising crude oil, liquidity release, increased speculative demand and other factors, the prices rose significantly, reaching the highest point in the first half of the year at the end of February or early March; The decline continued in the second quarter, and prices fell back. At the same time, cotton prices have been rising and hitting new highs. Under dual pressure, the unit prices of major chemical fiber filaments experienced a “tail-up” trend in July.
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Judging from the transaction volume of China Textile City, affected by the season, spring and summer mass fabrics, mainly imitation silk products, became popular in March, with smooth production and sales. In April, due to The price of raw materials rose too much, too soon, and shipments weakened. The transaction volume gradually increased in May, and the thin fabric market recovered. June once again entered the off-season; the lining market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and polyester filament clothing linings There is insufficient confidence in the market outlook for accessories and accessories in bags, insufficient demand, and weak sales; the demand for autumn and winter clothing fabrics, mainly jacquard and elastic products, is gradually increasing, with obvious characteristics of “multiple varieties, small batches”, mass product shipments are mediocre, and specialty fabrics The market is good; among home textile products, curtain fabrics have many varieties and relatively large trading volumes, and the trading volume of 280CM polyester filament jacquards has steadily increased. Judging from the trading situation of my country’s main filament fabrics, mass products and conventional products are under greater competitive pressure, the demand for highlight products is strong, the market prospects for decorative fabrics are good, and the market demand for curtain fabrics is relatively promising in the second half of the year.
Trend forecast for the second half of the year
Overall, in 2021 my country’s filament weaving industry as a whole shows a development trend of accelerating recovery, but the foundation for stability and improvement still needs to be further consolidated. Instability and uncertainty are large, and there are still certain risks in achieving stable and healthy development throughout the year.
From the perspective of the domestic demand market, the national economy continued to recover steadily in the first half of the year, strengthening and improving while maintaining stability, and the employment, income, and consumption cycles continued to be optimized and balanced. However, the current domestic epidemic situation has partially rebounded in many places, increasing the uncertainty of market recovery. However, in the long run, the trend of consumption continuing to recover remains unchanged. In addition, in the second half of the year, the “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve” shopping festivals will continue to increase. Consumption is stimulated, and domestic demand potential throughout the year may be further released.
From the perspective of the export market, the global epidemic continues to evolve, and the impact on the international market has not yet fully recovered. It is affected by the politicization of “virus traceability” and industrial chain alliances and other new geopolitical issues. The political situation is disturbed and instability factors increase after the epidemic. As the epidemic continues, sea freight has skyrocketed, and it is difficult to find a container, which has led to a significant increase in transportation costs for enterprises and an increase in the probability of default. As of the end of July, rising freight rates and port congestion have not been fully alleviated, becoming the biggest uncertainties affecting exports in the second half of the year. Therefore, although the export of filament fabrics has picked up significantly in the first half of the year, the foreign trade situation throughout the year is still unclear. Excluding the impact of accidental events, it is initially expected that exports will achieve a slight growth throughout the year.
In addition, the price increase of upstream raw materials caused by global inflation has not been transmitted to the simultaneous increase in the sales price of downstream finished products, increasing the pressure on the production and operation of enterprises in the filament weaving industry. Although oil prices have experienced significant fluctuations in July, and subsequent upward pressure has increased, it is expected that there will still be support for the cost side of chemical fiber, and filament weaving companies may still bear pressure from the cost side in the second half of the year.
In summary, due to the complex external environment and increased uncertainty, and at the same time affected by the low base in 2020, 2021 The growth rate of major economic indicators will gradually slow down in the second half of the year, and it is expected that the whole year will show a trend of rising at first and then stabilizing. In the second half of the year, my country’s filament weaving enterprises need to focus on the recovery of terminal demand, price fluctuations of crude oil and major chemical fiber filaments, the introduction of national policies, changes in the RMB exchange rate, etc., and strive to tap the potential of domestic and foreign markets, rationally arrange production, control inventory, and prevent funds. Risk of breakage. It is recommended that enterprises carry out technological transformation or product research and development during the off-season, pay attention to “differentiated” competition, make specialty products, realize “I have what others don’t have, and I have the best when others have”, and strive to take the initiative in the market.
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