Cotton prices hit a new high in August but then fell sharply. The pure cotton yarn market was affected by this. The price first rose and then fell. As of September 2, 2021, CY C32S pure cotton yarn closed at 26,895 yuan/ton, which was lower than 26,895 yuan/ton. In the same period last week, it fell by 205 yuan/ton. The CC 3128B cotton index closed at 17,923 yuan/ton, down 242 yuan/ton from the same period last week.
In terms of cotton raw materials, in the past week or so after the “Textile Enterprises Special” was set up for the reserve cotton auction, the effect was very obvious. The average transaction price increased directly from 17,797 yuan on August 23. / ton fell to 16,797 yuan / ton on September 1, a decrease of 1,000 yuan. But if you think about it carefully, the closing price of Zheng Cotton’s main contract also fell from 17,860 yuan to 17,270 yuan during the same period, which is not a small range. Therefore, it is still unclear whether the trend of cotton prices is due to policy reasons or whether it follows the “wind vane” of futures. But in any case, after entering August, it is an indisputable fact that the price of cotton has developed a larger “inverted V” shape. The same is true for the price of pure cotton yarn. In the first half of the month, the price increased with cotton, but the increase was not as high as that of cotton. In the second half of the month, the price of cotton fell, and the price of pure cotton yarn fell less than that of cotton for most varieties. Therefore, judging from the current cotton price of pure cotton yarn 20 days ago, the profit level remains high, still above 1,500 yuan/ton. It can be seen that there is still room for cotton yarn prices to fall in the future. If the market continues to be weak, textile companies are more likely to offer profits and ship goods.
In terms of textile enterprise inventory, since the beginning of the reserve cotton auction, pure cotton yarn spinning enterprises have continued to accumulate cotton raw material inventory. As soon as the “Textile Enterprise Special” policy was released at the end of August, raw material inventory It even reached a nearly 4-year high. In August, the finished product inventory of pure cotton yarn spinning companies also continued to accumulate, especially in the second half of the month, the inventory increase accelerated. However, the current finished product inventory level is still at a low level. As of August 27, the average daily inventory of finished cotton yarn products in spinning companies was around 9.2 days. It has not yet reached the high point for the year. From the perspective of textile enterprises, the willingness to reduce prices is not high when inventory is low, but traders have high inventories, and some low-price sales have recently occurred. Textile enterprises are worried that inventory will continue to accumulate, so they can only follow price cuts. However, at present, textile enterprises The price reduction is smaller than that of traders. However, downstream customers do not seem to buy into the price drop, and trading volume has not increased with the price drop. Downstream weaving mills only need to purchase goods, and many adopt a cautious wait-and-see attitude. It is understood that orders from small and medium-sized yarn mills in Shandong, Henan and other regions are gradually being completed, and the number of new orders is obviously insufficient. Some textile mills have reported that some manufacturers have completed their early orders, but now shipments are not smooth. As for whether there are orders flowing in from Southeast Asia, most merchants are not sure. Now it seems that there are none or relatively few, and the market has not responded much. If demand continues to be weak in the market outlook, traders will still have room for price reductions due to low average inventory prices, and may become the leading decliner.
The rise and fall of pure cotton yarn over the years depends first on cotton and second on demand. In terms of cotton, the short-term trend is weak and the market sentiment is bearish. However, there are still expectations for a rush for new cotton during its launch period, and there may not be much room for a sharp decline. From the perspective of demand, there are currently insufficient downstream orders and weaving mills are reducing and suspending production. However, it is reported that foreign order inquiries have increased recently. Although domestic orders have not changed significantly, it is expected that there will still be certain demand for domestic sales and Double Eleven. The current cotton price Weakness, downstream wait-and-see sentiment is high, which makes terminal orders cautious or delayed. However, the phenomenon of orders being digested in advance does exist. The large inventory of downstream gray fabrics and middlemen is also an important factor restricting the improvement of the market. Considering comprehensive considerations, it is expected that pure cotton yarn There is a high probability that the peak season will be slow and prices will continue to fall. However, judging from the trading volume, there is still a certain demand support for gold, silver and gold, and the trading volume may be better than that in August. </p
