In the first half of this year, a large amount of capital poured into the cotton and even cotton yarn futures markets for investment. The sharp rise in cotton futures prices has made people in the industry worry that excessive raw material costs will destroy the normal textile industry.
In this regard, industry experts said that the implementation of the latest cotton reserve policy of “limited to textile cotton enterprises for self-purchase and self-use” demonstrates the country’s commitment to maintaining the healthy development of the textile industry chain. Determination. The announcement is mainly to ensure cotton spinning enterprises use cotton, facilitate cotton spinning enterprises purchasing cotton, and reduce the risk of enterprises purchasing raw materials. Since the announcement strictly supervises the rotation of cotton reserves and prevents capitalization operations, it will partially curb cotton speculation in the short to medium term, and further stabilization of cotton prices will be conducive to the stable operation of cotton-using enterprises. At present, there is still a month until new cotton is launched, and the market has high expectations for the launch of seed cotton. It is expected that even if the purchase price of new cotton rises to 8 to 10 yuan per kilogram this year, there will be ginners rushing to harvest it.
In terms of market demand, experts analyze that due to the impact of the epidemic and the different progress of economic recovery at home and abroad, the performance of external demand and domestic demand for textile and apparel is not synchronized.
In terms of external demand, from January to July, textile exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 10.8% year-on-year, an increase of 15.7% compared with the same period in 2019; clothing exports increased by 32.9% year-on-year, compared with the same period last year. The same period in 2019 increased by 7.0%. Among them, in July, textile exports fell by 26.7% year-on-year and 6.5% month-on-month; clothing exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year and 9.4% month-on-month. With the recovery of the global economy, coupled with the early placement of Christmas orders and the transfer of orders in some regions, clothing exports continue to grow.
In terms of domestic demand, from January to July, domestic retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 29.8% year-on-year, an increase of only 2.3% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, retail sales of clothing and textiles increased by 7.5% year-on-year in July. The domestic economy is recovering normally, and domestic retail sales of clothing and textile products have only increased slightly compared with before the epidemic. Overseas stimulus policies continue to increase. External demand for textiles and clothing is significantly better than domestic demand. However, domestic sales peak season orders have not yet started. It is recommended that companies pay attention to the placement of export orders and domestic sales orders.
From the perspective of specific links in the industrial chain, from January to July, yarn production increased by 16.0% year-on-year, down 11.8% from the same period in 2019; cloth production increased by 12.7% year-on-year. A decrease of 28.7% compared with the same period in 2019. Recently, the profit margin of cotton yarn is relatively large, while the profits of gray fabrics are constantly being squeezed, and the downstream profit transmission is not smooth. The inventory performance of different links is also different. Textile enterprises still have active demand for replenishment of cotton raw materials, finished cotton yarn inventory is low, and weaving mill inventory increased slightly.
Currently, cotton futures prices have fallen sharply, and it is expected that yarn prices may fall back in the short term. However, the current order schedule of yarn mills is tight, and the inventory of finished products in pure cotton yarn mills remains at a low level. Orders can be maintained until the end of September, and there is still some support for cotton prices. It is expected that cotton prices may fluctuate in the short term. </p
