In mid-August, affected by the sharp decline in ICE futures, the direct import cost of foreign cotton fell under the 1% tariff and sliding tax. At the same time, freight forwarders have reported that companies with cargo rights have recently obtained quotas, and the sliding tax quotas are required to be used before the end of the year. Therefore, textile companies have begun to increase the purchase of foreign cotton. Recently, spot transactions at ports have expanded, and exports have been intensive. 8 Since mid-month, foreign cotton stocks at ports have declined. According to data compiled by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of the first week of September, the uncleared foreign cotton inventory at the port was around 382,900 tons.
1. After falling from highs in the internal and external markets in the past month, it has stabilized and rebounded
In mid-August, the Federal Reserve The consideration of reducing the scale of bond purchases triggered a market correction. The settlement price of ICE’s main December contract fell from 95 cents to 93 cents. Subsequently, the arrival of tropical storm “Ida” caused cotton prices to rise first and then fall. However, the U.S. dollar index continued to fall sharply to provide Strong support, the external market has generally been running between 92-94 cents in the past two weeks. At the same time, domestic macroeconomic data weakened, relevant departments limited textile companies to participate in reserve cotton auctions, and new downstream orders were unsatisfactory, which led to a short-term correction in Zheng cotton. The main contract fell from 18,200 yuan/ton to 17,200 yuan/ton, and the cumulative Down a thousand dollars. As new cotton is approaching, the expectation of higher opening prices in the new year has prompted a rapid rebound in cotton prices. On September 3, Zheng Cotton’s main force once again approached the 18,000 yuan/ton mark.
2. Bonded cotton stocks are outflowing and incomings are low. Port storage capacity is still tight
Affected by the joint downward adjustment of ICE and Zheng cotton futures, in mid-to-late August, the price inquiry/exit of bonded cotton and customs-cleared cotton at the port gradually recovered, and the arrival and warehousing volume of bonded cotton were both higher than 7 There was a slight “double reduction” in March, the total inventory of bonded + non-bonded cotton “exceeded the incoming”, and the pressure on port storage capacity has eased. According to data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of the first week of September, the foreign cotton inventory statistics at major ports are as follows:
Qingdao Port 252,400 tons, compared with 304,700 tons in the same period last month tons, including 95,500 tons of Brazilian cotton, 71,600 tons of Indian cotton, 41,800 tons of US cotton, 18,700 tons of Australian cotton, 9,100 tons of Central Asian cotton, 5,200 tons of West African cotton, Mexico, Sudan, Israel, Egypt, Greece, etc. A total of about 10,000 tons.
Zhangjiagang has 78,800 tons, mainly American cotton, Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton and African cotton. US cotton accounted for 15,700 tons, accounting for 19.99%; Brazilian cotton accounted for 18,200 tons, accounting for 23.09%; Indian cotton accounted for 23,900 tons, accounting for 30.33%; other countries and regions accounted for 20,900 tons, accounting for 26.58%.
Nantong Port has 40,000 tons, mainly American cotton, Brazilian cotton, Indian cotton and African cotton.
Wuhan Port 2,000 tons of US cotton.
Yueyang Port has a capacity of 9,700 tons, mainly US cotton, Brazilian cotton and Indian cotton.
Analysis of cotton-related enterprises in Jiangsu, Shandong and other places, due to declaration of July/August shipping date The quantity of US cotton/Brazilian cotton/Indian cotton is relatively low; coupled with the continued sharp rise in sea freight and abnormal tightness of containers (especially the American routes), it is expected that foreign cotton will arrive in Hong Kong in September/October and the incoming inventory will rebound and grow. Strong, the pressure on the bonded zone’s storage capacity is expected to continue to be alleviated.
3. Order status and purchasing intentions of textile enterprises
According to some textile companies in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and other places Service companies have reported that export orders are only received around late September. The market is worried that logistics will be blocked and foreign orders will not be delivered on time. There is an increasing possibility that the peak season will not be prosperous in the later period. In the past two days, cotton spinning customers with quotas have gradually picked up their enthusiasm for inquiry and signing of Brazilian cotton and 2021/22 US cotton. On the one hand, the callback of ICE has triggered passive transactions of some ON-CALL contracts; on the other hand, considering that 2021 / Domestic new cotton purchase prices in 2022 may “open higher and move higher”, and cotton-using companies have plans to obtain goods at low prices. It is worth noting that U.S. cotton export shipments have been repeatedly delayed due to backlogs of port cargo and hurricane landings. Domestic companies are worried that they will not be able to pick up goods at the end of the year. Therefore, the current procurement focus is on non-U.S. cotton. </p
