With the acceleration of vaccination progress, demand for various commodities has gradually recovered, and the market demand for individual products has even reached unprecedented heights, such as natural gas; however, due to the imbalance between supply and demand, its price has also risen ridiculously—— U.S. gas has reached a new high in the past 10 years, and European gas has increased 10 times in 14 months. The market has predicted that global natural gas prices will continue to rise further in the second half of the year.
In addition to natural gas, oil is also in a supply-demand imbalance. Major institutions have predicted that oil prices will rise sharply in the second half of the year.
Let’s take a look at Goldman Sachs’ analysis first. Goldman Sachs believes that although demand for crude oil has not yet returned to pre-epidemic levels, crude oil prices are likely to rise sharply against the backdrop of low inventories and the upcoming heating season. According to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the current overall U.S. crude oil inventory level is close to the average level from 2015 to 2019, and is continuing to fall.
Also, while demand for oil barely declined during the rapid spread of Delta, crude oil production in the heartland of the U.S. energy industry was hit hard by Hurricane Ida. , has not yet recovered. According to statistics from relevant departments, starting from August 29, the southern United States lost 16.9 million barrels of crude oil in 10 days, the heaviest loss in history.
To put it simply, when there is already a gap in global crude oil supply, the impact on U.S. crude oil production is likely to expand the market supply gap, even with OPEC + 400,000 barrels The increase in production per day will not help either. According to the bullish principle of the commodity market: as long as supply exceeds demand, prices will rise.
Let’s take a look at Citigroup’s analysis. According to Citigroup’s forecast, after Hurricane Ida and the strong winds of Nicholas are about to hit, the U.S. production reduction may reach 30 million barrels in September, and will reach 5 million barrels in October. In addition, the demand recovery in East Asia is beginning. The strong trend of crude oil is expected to remain until the fourth quarter of this year. It is reported that WTI crude oil has hit a 6-week high and is back above $70.
The last is the analysis of Bank of America. Compared with supply, Bank of America is more concerned about the increase in demand caused by the weather. According to the agency’s report, if the winter in the northern hemisphere is colder than before, strong demand will push oil prices to US$100 per barrel. You know, the northern hemisphere has experienced rare high temperatures and droughts this year, and it is not surprising to see rare low temperatures.
So, will the rise in international oil prices have an impact on domestic refined oil prices? You know, our country is the world’s largest importer of crude oil, and domestic refined oil prices are closely related to international oil prices.
On September 6, relevant departments have stated that due to the shock and rise in international oil prices during the price adjustment cycle (August 23-September 3) – Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil has increased by 3.26% compared with the previous price adjustment cycle, raising the prices of gasoline and diesel by 140 yuan/ton. This is the 11th increase in domestic refined oil prices this year, achieving a pattern of “eleven increases, three decreases, and three stranded” patterns.
So if international oil prices rise sharply in the second half of the year, domestic refined oil products are likely to be raised as well. However, in order to prevent oil prices from being too high, relevant departments have already taken action. According to news on September 9, my country will organize the release of national reserve crude oil in phases and batches in a rotational manner, mainly to alleviate the pressure of rising raw material prices on domestic enterprises. This is the first time in our country’s history that this has been done.
It is worth mentioning that the United States also recently announced that it will sell up to 20 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. The delivery time will be the fourth quarter of this year, and the delivery scale will be the highest since 2014. Some voices pointed out that the United States was “asking for help”. After being rejected by OPEC+, it could only increase its own supply in order to bring down oil prices. </p
