International crude oil futures prices rose for the second consecutive trading day, and were once again close to the six-month high price hit on September 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil futures stood at US$70, rising to US$70.39/barrel; Brent crude oil rose 0.88% to US$73.56/barrel.
01 my country releases national crude oil reserves
International crude oil last week The shock was violent, mainly because North American Hurricane Ida damaged offshore operating platforms, and Royal Dutch Shell, the largest oil producer in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, canceled some supplies.
Then the State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves released heavy news – with the approval of the State Council, the State Administration of Grain and Material Reserves organized the release of national reserve crude oil in phases and batches in a rotational manner for the first time. This release is mainly aimed at domestic refining and chemical integration enterprises to alleviate the pressure of rising raw material prices on production-oriented enterprises.
It is reported that the implementation of normalized rotation of national oil reserves is an important way to play the regulatory role of the reserve market. Putting national reserve crude oil on the market through open bidding sales will better stabilize the supply and demand in the domestic market and effectively protect national energy security. Last year, due to the impact of the epidemic, international oil prices plummeted, and our country also purchased a large amount of crude oil inventories. In addition to part of these crude oil inventories entering commercial reserves, a large part entered the national reserve inventory. This time the country released the inventory, which means that the national reserve inventory The level is much higher than in previous years, and the country also has certain confidence to release inventory to stabilize the risk of rising prices. After the news was released, oil prices plunged sharply during the session. But then it rebounded from $71 to $73.5.
02 International oil prices keep an eye on China’s crude oil import data
After the news of China’s release of crude oil inventories, although oil prices in the short term It rose again after the downturn, but this has attracted great attention from the international crude oil market.
According to Goldman Sachs’ predictions, the global crude oil supply and demand balance will remain tight for some time in the future. China’s tightening of quotas and the release of inventory will inhibit demand growth to a certain extent, so the corresponding It will also lower its demand growth forecast, which may affect the increase in international oil prices in the fourth quarter. If so, Goldman Sachs’s $80/barrel target may become a more difficult target to reach. If Chinese imports fall, the market won’t demand as much crude oil.
Commodity analysis agencies believe that the country’s release of reserve stocks this time is intended to rotate, which This means that at some point in the future, China will still purchase a large amount of crude oil to increase inventory levels. Last year, my country’s large-scale purchases of crude oil were mainly concentrated from May to September. At that time, the oil price was 35-45 US dollars per barrel. Now it has risen to more than 70 US dollars per barrel. From the perspective of national strategic reserves, it is appropriate to sell reserves when oil prices are high to stabilize prices, and then replenish reserves when crude oil prices are low. This operation can not only stabilize commodity prices, but also maximize the value of inventory.
So analysts believe that in the future, we should focus on changes in China’s crude oil imports. If China’s imports suddenly increase sharply sometime in the fourth quarter, it may mean that the crude oil market is at the bottom range at that time. </p
