Domestic Zheng cotton has fallen into violent shocks due to the intertwining of long and short conditions such as the launch of new cotton, the sale of reserve cotton, and the sluggish downstream demand during the peak season. Zheng cotton futures have entered a volatile downward trend since returning to the 18,000 mark on September 9. They bottomed out yesterday and continued their gains today. The closing price of the main contract was 17,620 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton.
Zheng Mian rose slightly
Although Zheng Mian has fluctuated and fallen a lot recently, even so, the market still has a strong interest in Zheng Mian. Maintain confidence. In the words of one netizen, even taxi drivers know that cotton will rise. On the market, Zheng cotton has risen continuously in the past two days. From September 14 (the recent low) to September 16, the main settlement price of Zheng cotton increased by 135 yuan/ton, not only recovering from the previous three consecutive negative trends, but also approaching 18,000 Yuan Pass! The main reason for the continuous rise of Zheng cotton is that there are fewer spot resources in the market, and the price of Xinjiang seed cotton has also increased significantly. It will still take about half a month for Xinjiang cotton to be officially launched on the market. At present, there are few seed cottons and the number of transactions is relatively limited.
The closing price of the futures market on September 16
From a supply-side perspective, the total cotton commercial inventory in August was 1.9247 million tons, which was higher than the previous month. The monthly decrease was 578,300 tons, a decrease of 485,100 tons compared with the same period last year, which was the lowest in the past three years. Overall, the overall cotton consumption in August was relatively good. The decline in monthly cotton stocks has expanded compared with the previous period. The rotation of cotton reserves in August is also in full swing. The daily transaction rate is as high as 100%, indicating that textile companies have a high demand for cotton in August. The stocking situation of raw materials is good. Most of the raw material inventories of mainland textile companies will be stocked until November. Therefore, although the focus of Zheng cotton futures prices has fallen recently, the spot transaction performance is still poor.
The start-up of downstream textile enterprises is mainly stable, and finished products continue to accumulate inventory. However, textile and garment exports remain stable, supporting the domestic cotton market. From September 13 to September 16, the main settlement price of Zheng yarn futures showed a fluctuating upward trend, with an increase of about 225 yuan/ton; as Zheng cotton bottomed out and rebounded, superimposed new cotton picking began one after another, and Zheng cotton is expected to fall under the expectation of rush harvest. With support, it may run stronger.
New cotton market: The expensive market is too crazy this year
According to survey data from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of September 2021 On March 10, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage points. Among them, the picking progress in Xinjiang is 0.03%; the sale, processing and sales of new cotton nationwide have not yet officially started. Xinjiang seed cotton is only purchased by a small number of ginners. The purchase price of hand-picked cotton seed cotton is chaotic, with the high price reaching 11 to 12 yuan/kg. The machine-picked seed cotton in North Xinjiang is expected to be put on the market at the end of September.
Currently Xinjiang cotton has not started to be harvested on a large scale, but the purchase price of seed cotton has risen so fast and the price is so high that people lament that “the expensive industry is too crazy this year.” The cotton picking price leads the way, from 9.5 yuan/kg in early September to nearly 11 yuan/kg now. It is roughly estimated that the cost of lint cotton has exceeded 20,000 yuan/ton. It is understood that the quotation of cotton in Kashgar has risen to the range of 23,000-25,000 yuan/ton. However, the quotation of 25,000 yuan/ton is limited to high-quality cotton with horse value above 5.3 and low impurity content. Faced with such a high price, Even though it is currently the peak season for Xinjiang cotton sales, mainland buyers are starting to stay away and start looking for 2020 Xinjiang hand-picked cotton whose indicators are closer to the cotton requirements. The impurity content is within 1%, and the horse value is about 4.9-5.3. , the market quotation is around 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton. Compared with new cotton, the price advantage is obvious.
As for cotton farmers, although the current price of hand-picked cotton does not represent the mainstream purchase price, there is a reference standard of 9-11 yuan/kg of seed cotton purchase price in southern Xinjiang. In addition, this year Due to many factors such as increased planting costs and increased ginner capacity, cotton farmers also have higher expectations for this year’s purchase prices. The machine-picked cotton in Northern Xinjiang is about to open its scale. Some companies predict that the price of machine-picked cotton will be between 8.0-8.5 yuan/kg. However, the psychological expectations of cotton farmers are much higher than this. Between the games, the risks in the Xinjiang seed cotton purchase market this year have increased.
Currently, poor downstream demand due to dual control and changes in cotton reserve policies have plunged Zheng Cotton into violent shocks. In the later period, as new cotton comes on the market in large quantities, “rush to harvest” is expected to dominate the market again.
It is expected that Xinjiang’s cotton yield will increase and the price of seed cotton will rise
In August 2021, the China Cotton Association conducted a survey of 12 provinces and cities across the country Conducted surveys on recent cotton growth and yield measurement with 2,264 designated farmers in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region. The survey results show that the total national cotton output in 2021 is expected to be 5.834 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.52%. The decline continues to narrow, 1.19 percentage points smaller than the previous period. In August, Xinjiang had more hot weather and was generally suitable for cotton growth. The output is expected to reach 5.3279 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.60%, an increase of 95,800 tons from the previous period, and the unit yield increased by 1.11% year-on-year.
In the past two years, Xinjiang has carried out large-scale land transfers and promoted high-standard farmland construction, especially in the southern Xinjiang cotton area. Land concentration, large-scale management, and improved management and cultivation have effectively guaranteed output. . This year, cotton in Xinjiang experienced widespread freezing damage during the sowing and emergence period, and the growth period was delayed. However, the weather was stable in July and August, and the temperature in most cotton areas was high. The growth of cotton plants accelerated. At the same time, cotton farmers expected that the price of seed cotton would rise. In order to increase production, , measures such as delaying water outages and supplementing fertilizer during irrigation have been taken, and the yield per unit area is expected to increase.
The acquisition of new cotton in many places has begunSix measures have been adopted: (1) Improve the access standards for new projects; (2) Increase efforts to resolve excess production capacity; (3) Implement total energy consumption control for some high-energy-consuming industries; (4) Accelerate energy-saving technologies The pace of transformation; (5) Adjusting the current electricity market transaction policy; (6) Cleaning up and rectifying unapproved high-energy-consuming projects. In summary, it means to review and control the existing high energy-consuming projects, shut down those that do not meet the energy consumption requirements; and to increase the approval threshold for new high-energy-consuming projects, making it difficult for high-energy-consuming projects to be implemented in the short term.
Power shortage leads to setbacks in downstream construction
From a time perspective, it has already entered the market and is expected to The peak season, but judging from the start-up situation, the characteristics of the peak season have not appeared, and the downstream demand has become more depressed. The overall performance of downstream demand is currently weak. The atmosphere of the pure cotton yarn spot market is weak, transactions are rare, and many downstream places are in a wait-and-see state. Especially after the power cuts in some areas, news came out in the market that some areas in Shandong, Zhejiang and other provinces also suffered from power cuts due to the dual control, which further affected downstream demand. Last Friday, affected by power cuts in Nantong, the operating rate and load index of textile mills fell sharply, from 55.5% to 52.1%. New downstream orders are lower than expected. With the implementation of power restriction policies in many places, demand is expected to continue to maintain the current slightly weak state. A few days ago, due to the impact of dual control, the Nantong market will implement measures to reduce and suspend production of textile companies. Weaving mills in some areas will suspend production from 7 a.m. on September 10 to the early morning of October 1. Some large factories can still operate normally. Nantong market is the largest home textile market in the country, and cotton yarn consumption accounts for a large proportion. The 20-day suspension of production will have a significant impact on pure cotton yarn consumption. </p
