Recently, after CMA CGM said it would “freeze prices,” shipping giants such as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and ONE have followed suit. The industry has speculated whether this means that the continued rise in shipping prices is expected to stop?
Sullivan Greater China Consulting Director Xiang Weili told a reporter from Securities Daily: “CMA CGM, Maersk, Hapag, etc. are among the leading companies in the industry. , affected by factors such as the COVID-19 epidemic, today’s shipping prices are at historical highs. The statement that there will be no price increases will help maintain a stable cooperative relationship with downstream customers and maintain the smooth operation of the industry. At the same time, it can also help alleviate unreasonable price increases in the overall industry.
Another shipping company person told a reporter from Securities Daily: “These shipping giants It has great influence in the industry and may take the lead, and other shipping companies should also be waiting and watching. “
But some industry insiders told reporters: “Although the shipping giant said it will not rise, However, due to the huge demand and tight space on popular routes in Europe and the United States, the current actual freight rates are still rising slightly. ”
The surcharge still has to be paid separately, so the shipping giant will not suffer from the “frozen price”
CITIC Construction Investment believes that shipping companies’ initiative to stop increasing spot freight rates may seem like short-term interests are being harmed, but in fact long-term interests will be benefited, effectively avoiding the risk of a sharp fall from high levels in the future. At the same time, the recent rising spot freight rates have caused customers to rush to ship goods. , locking in spot prices will compress the profit margins of middlemen.
CMA CGM Although spot freight rates are frozen, additional charges are not included, and there is still room for profit growth of shipping companies.
A relevant person in charge of a foreign trade company reported to the Securities A reporter from the Daily said: “The shipping giant announced that spot freight prices will not increase, but this freight rate is only a basic price, excluding surcharges, and the actual freight price paid is still rising. ”
In this regard, CMA CGM shipping business personnel also said: “Although shipping Prices are frozen, but CMA CGM can still charge other additional fees. The actual transaction price is subject to loading and loading, and the fees still depend on the market supply and demand mechanism. “Another domestic cargo canvassing practitioner said: “CMA CGM’s fuel surcharges, port congestion surcharges, and peak season surcharges will all be adjusted based on market conditions. “
A freight forwarder told a reporter from Securities Daily: “Da All shipping slots for October have been booked. This is the traditional shipping peak season. When the peak season is over, the shortage of supply and demand will be relatively improved, and it will not make much sense to push for price increases. “It is understood that the China-US route and the China-Europe route are still the most popular routes at present. This route has been running with full capacity, and foreign trade companies need to queue up to place orders.
CITIC Construction Investment data shows that freight rates on North American routes increased by US$500/FEU-1,000/FEU in September, while freight rates on European and continental routes rose slightly, and loading rates Keep the cabin fully loaded. Under this situation, some foreign trade companies complained that currently no space can be booked and boxes are in short supply. Even if the freight price does not increase, the problem will not be solved.
“Securities Daily” reporter noticed that this is the traditional peak season for the container market, and foreign trade companies often have to rush out before the National Day. The shipping industry, which was already in peak season, has entered a super peak season due to factors such as Christmas stocking abroad.
Some foreign trade companies often take the initiative to raise prices in order to ship goods before the National Day. An industry insider told a reporter from Securities Daily: “For freight forwarders, who gives If the price is high, shipments will be arranged in advance. If the price is not increased, you will have to queue up all the time. ”
Industry insiders analyze: “As long as the supply of shipping spaces and boxes exceeds demand, Even if the price of the long-term basic shipping agreement no longer rises, the final consolidated shipping price reported to foreign trade companies through freight forwarders, etc., will still significantly exceed the agreed floor price due to the influence of supply and demand. ”
Sea freight prices are rising slightly and slowly
Foreign trade companies are looking forward to price cuts
“Among the popular routes from July to August, each TEU of the China-Europe line and the China-US line It has risen by several hundred dollars every month, and after many shipping companies said they would freeze prices, container shipping prices have stabilized in late September and have not risen significantly. ” said the person from the above-mentioned shipping company.
Although the rise in shipping prices has eased, However, shipping prices still make foreign trade companiesComplaints are endless.
A person from a foreign trade company whose products are mainly exported to Europe and the United States told a reporter from Securities Daily : “Due to the low gross profit margin of the company’s products and the increase in overseas shipping costs, the company’s export logistics costs have increased significantly, and the company has to reduce exports to ensure net profits. Currently, the company’s comprehensive logistics costs have increased by more than 10 times compared with previous years.”
The reporter interviewed many foreign trade companies and learned that compared with the “freezing price” declaration, foreign trade companies I also hope that shipping companies can reduce prices.
“In the short term, price reduction is not realistic.” People from the above-mentioned shipping company believe that , “The market price will maintain its current status in the short term, but in the long term, the terminal price of container transportation will also depend on the market supply and demand status and whether the policies of these shipping companies can be implemented. Otherwise, even if the freight does not increase, there will be no boxes and no space.”
In September, due to strong demand, well-known shipping industry analysis institutions Flexport and Kuehne + Nagel Logistics companies have recommended that customers book space at least 4 weeks in advance.
Major shipping giants have increased their shipping capacity
It is expected that freight prices will decline in the next two years
In the opinion of industry insiders, “freezing prices cannot change the market supply and demand. Even if the basic freight rate does not increase, it seems to stabilize the market price in the short term. In the long term, the actual price of terminal container transportation will also change with various factors such as supply and demand.” “.
The above-mentioned freight forwarders believe that the fundamental reason for the increase in shipping prices is insufficient shipping space and box supply. Nervous question. As for private increases in agreed freight rates and market scalpers speculating on higher freight rates, these are only a small part of the indirect reasons for the price increase.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that the container market has entered a super peak season and may be extended to a record high. Under the influence of the epidemic and various incidents, the global supply chain has become more chaotic, and there are still no signs of improvement in the relationship between supply and demand. Under the epidemic, various ports have upgraded their control over calling ships, exacerbating schedule delays and contradictions between supply and demand. The unilateral market pattern caused by serious imbalances in supply and demand may continue for a long time.
Faced with the imbalance between shipping supply and demand, shipping giants have increased shipping capacity and at the same time asked shipyards Orders are placed, but in the short term they do not meet market demand.
According to the latest data released by Alphaliner, a aviation consulting agency, as of July 2021 On the 30th, the total shipping capacity of global operating container ships was 24906389TEU, an increase of 102077TEU from 1 month ago. The number of container ships in operation worldwide is 6,252, a significant increase of 26 ships from one month ago. The total tonnage of container ships operating globally reached 299,334,120 deadweight tons.
“The current increase in capacity will not have much impact on the industry because capacity The increase is not much, and the actual available shipping capacity is reduced because ships are blocked at overseas terminals.” The above-mentioned shipping source told reporters: “Not only is it difficult to increase actual shipping capacity, but the route punctuality rate is also declining seriously. Basically, there are only 30%-40%. This is also caused by port congestion.” Statistics from Kuehne + Nagel Group’s shipping platform seaexplorer show that as of August 27, 2021, more than 355 ships were anchored outside the port.
“The export peak season of each country is different, resulting in the peak shipping season. It varies from country to country, but when the peak season comes, the shipping capacity cannot keep up, which also aggravates the imbalance between supply and demand.” An industry insider told reporters: “Take China as an example, the peak shipping season occurs before the Spring Festival every year, and the off-season begins after the Spring Festival, starting in April. It’s getting warmer, and the peak season is before the National Day in the second half of the year, and then the off-season until the Spring Festival of the following year.”
Xiang Weili told reporters: “From a global perspective, the epidemic has not subsided, and with the surge in demand during Black Friday and Christmas in Europe and North America in the second half of the year, the imbalance between shipping supply and demand will continue. In the medium and long term, the gap between supply and demand will Repair slowly. As the epidemic improves, the port congestion problem will surely be alleviated, and actual shipping capacity will return to normal levels. It is expected that freight rates will slowly and gradually decline in the next two years, but will still be significantly higher than pre-epidemic levels.”
However, the imbalance between supply and demand in shipping also provides opportunities for the development of the shipbuilding industry. A relevant person in charge of a shipbuilding company told a reporter from Securities Daily: “Currently, the top shipping companies in the world have placed orders with the company.”
The person said that since last year, the profits of container ships and dry bulk carriers have increased, which has prompted a surge in new ship orders. This year, the delivery cycle of new orders has been scheduled to 2024.
Data shows that in the first seven months of 2021, 24.18 million shipbuilding projects were completed nationwide. deadweight tonnage, with an annual compound growth rate of 21%; new ship orders received were 45.22 million deadweight tons, with an annual compound growth rate of 223%; at the end of July, the country’s on-hand ship orders were 89.67 million deadweight tons.
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