Documents from the Guangxi Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that electricity prices in high-energy-consuming industries have increased by 50%. Inner Mongolia has raised transaction electricity prices. The specific increase depends on monthly data. In addition, Guizhou has issued a notice to expand the fluctuation range of transaction electricity prices, and Yunnan Province has also issued a notice on improving In the draft for comments on the time-of-use electricity price mechanism, the market’s expectations for floating trading electricity prices are getting stronger and stronger. As electricity prices rise, short-term raw materials will still be strong.
At the same time, the recent production restrictions in the textile and chemical fiber industry are still spreading. The current market expectations for normalized control of textile factories in the future are highly consistent. However, there are contradictions and doubts about the pace and rhythm of market operations, and uncertainties mainly focus on the intensity of upstream and downstream control.
The extremely rapid rise in raw materials
gives additional growth to the downstream market Operational Pressure
Only in terms of demand environment, the Golden Nine peak season did not meet industry expectations, but in terms of price trends, the surge in crude oil and expectations of a rush to harvest raw cotton in the second half of the year intensified the impact of the three Cotton spinning has rising momentum. During the National Day, ICE continued to rise, and Xinjiang officially entered the rush to harvest period. The purchase price of seed cotton continued to rise. Attributable to the savings on the cost side, which gave the market high explosive power. Polyester and viscose had strong melt costs, dual-control power rationing, and production restrictions. The situation is also upward with the trend. Even if China Reserve postpones and increases its reserve sales, the extremely rapid rise in raw materials will still add more operating pressure to the downstream market, and its upward trend will continue.
As of the 21st, the three major cotton spinning raw materials had increased by 4,500, 1,230, and 2,480 respectively compared with September 23. (Unit: Yuan/ton)
For cotton spinning mills, the cost of spinning raw materials accounts for more than 60%, followed by electricity and labor cost. Therefore, in an environment where dual control suppresses demand, textile companies are more likely to follow cost logic and intend to increase their quotations in order to avoid losses in processing fees. However, cotton spinning mills have to withstand the continuous and rapid rise in raw materials. The trend of rapid rise and fall makes its cost accounting more difficult. On the one hand, it has to bear the embarrassing situation of neither buying up nor buying down after the downstream has completed replenishment before the National Day. At present, some textile companies still do not offer quotations for the time being, and most of them maintain high quotations, but there are few transactions. From a cost perspective alone, it is difficult for yarn prices to exceed those of raw materials.
As of the 21st, the prices of the three major pure spinning yarns had increased by 3,500, 1,700, and 2,350 respectively compared with September 23. (Unit: Yuan/ton)
Coastal power curtailment reduction
A large area of polyester and viscose-related products was destocked
In September, the industry started to decline. On the one hand, the demand environment was poor, but greater stimulation The influencing factor is the production limit caused by dual-control power restrictions. At present, dual-control power rationing and production restrictions have spread from the coastal areas to the central region, and 1/3 of the production capacity in many areas has not been fully utilized. Compared with before the power cuts, the operating rate of pure cotton yarn dropped by 10.2 percentage points, that of pure polyester yarn dropped by 9.1 percentage points, and that of rayon yarn dropped by 5.5 percentage points.
In September, yarn prices first fell and then rose. During the decline, downstream demand only maintained rigid demand, and the dual controls reduced both supply and demand. Cotton spinning mills relied on early orders, and although inventories rose slowly, they remained at a low level. By the end of the month, on the one hand, raw cotton drove up the yarn price, and on the other hand, downstream started pre-holiday replenishment, which indeed drove cotton spinning mills to destock, but the sustainable orders were not large or long. After the National Day, yarn prices surged along with raw materials, while the downstream remained on the sidelines and bought low prices. Without the support of buyers, the inventory of finished products of pure cotton spinning companies continued to rise, and gradually reached the high point of the year. Due to the excessive growth of raw cotton, some downstream products have turned to polyester- and viscose-related products, which has led to the continued destocking of pure polyester yarn and rayon yarn that have also maintained a growth rate.
There is a replenishment demand for raw materials
However, some factories have been closed for 10-15 days to avoid the edge!
Due to the excessive and rapid price increase of raw cotton, many cotton spinning mills failed to restock before the National Day, resulting in a serious shortage of raw cotton reserves. Currently, only a few companies have large reserves, and these few companies have also suspended raw cotton purchases. Some factories can only maintain raw cotton production until the end of the month to early November. The high risks brought by high-priced cotton allocation make textile companies operate more conservatively. In addition, The inventory of finished products is still rising, and it is difficult to realize capital realization by relying only on periodic replenishment of urgent needs. Some factories have been closed for 10-15 days to temporarily avoid the risks caused by raw cotton.
On the whole, due to cost calculation alone, raw cotton may maintain a slow upward trend, and yarn processing fees have been gradually compressed. , it is expected that even if the demand environment is bad, the prices pushed up by the cost side will gradually penetrate downward. It is expected that the yarn market price will still be easy to rise but difficult to fall, and polyester- and viscose-related varieties will replace part of the raw cotton. </p
